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The Inflection Point (TIP™) is a weekly long/short market newsletter focused on market trends and companies at important inflection points in both their business models and technical stock formations. TIP™ is produced each week by John Henderson, an independent trader, and his team of market... More
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  • The Axis of Defense: How to Play the Chaos In Iran and North Korea 0 comments
    Jun 22, 2009 03:29 PM | about stocks: RTN, LMT, ORB, NOC

     

    The world is closely watching events in both Iran and North Korea. Iran is a focus of attention following large-scale protests from some of its own citizens after a questionable presidential election. North Korea is a focus following its recent missile tests, belligerent rhetoric including threats to Hawaii, and reported internal power struggle as the father and son Ill brain trust square off against other hardliners. With Iran intending to further its nuclear capability for ‘energy’ purposes regardless of the outcome of its election, and North Korea furthering its nuclear weapons capability as each day passes, the US will need to prepare for the ‘what-if’ scenarios.
     
    I am sure that top game theorists are being consulted by the US intelligence to try to figure what Iran and North Korea tend to do next. As a market participant, it is smart to be prepared no matter what happens. There are ways to potentially profit from these ‘what-if’ scenarios created by Iran and North Korea. Thwarting an attack before it causes damage to the US or its allies would be critical, so strong defensive measures would be paramount. To do this, the old Star Wars system or ‘missile defense shield’ in current parlance comes to mind.
     
    There are four large capitalization companies in the interceptor missile and missile defense group. These are Raytheon (symbol RTN), Lockheed Martin (symbol LMT), Orbital Sciences (symbol ORB), and Northrop Grumman (symbol NOC). I have put key metrics for these defense companies below but will leave it up to the reader to further delve into these names and decide which may be ripe for a move higher.
     
    SymbolPriceMarket capRevenuesPrice / RevsRev Growth %
      ($ billion)($ billion)  
          
    RTN45.3317.8623.700.759.90%
    LMT81.6631.7443.120.743.90%
    ORB16.140.9111.180.774.30%
    NOC46.6915.1034.480.447.70%

     

     

    SymbolEBITDAPrice / EBITDATTM EarningsPrice / Earnings
     ($ billion) ($ billion) 
         
    RTN3.025.911.7210.38
    LMT5.485.793.1510.08
    ORB0.0959.590.0422.78
    NOC3.883.89--

     

    SymbolCashDebtNet cashInsider 
     ($ billion)($ billion)($ billion)Buying?
         
    RTN2.212.30-0.09no
    LMT2.443.81-1.37no
    ORB0.3240.120.21no
    NOC0.9233.94-3.02yes

     
    There are no disclosures to make.
    Article by Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital.
    Stocks: RTN, LMT, ORB, NOC
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