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Freya
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I have my name back, Still looking for a Purrfect picture. I have friends. Time to restart. SA isn't perfect but then I'm not either. But Life is far too short, and as the Roman Gladiators used to say: Eat, drink and make merry because tommorow, you may die. Why hasten your demise, don't worry,... More
  • The Compass #2 133 comments
    Jun 23, 2011 8:18 AM

    Personally, I hope that we haven't lost our zest for investing.

    And do wish that this sits here unfilled because if it does, it will mean that the QCs are back, its a "Come Here" if the Barbarians are at the Gate Insta. :)

    Meanwhile, it does look like the Markets are weaving through a Minefield while investors hide wherever they can.

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Comments (133)
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  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nyse Insiders meaning the Members of the NYSE have increased sales dramatically

     

    It doesn't matter whether the Markets are up or down for the day, they have been Net sellers. Additionally, Program Traders have been net sellers over the last 3 weeks and, seeing as they account for about 30% of all volume an the NYSE, it behooves us to wonder when the Real Shoe is going to drop.

     

    My upside target is only a few % higher, Say 12,500 on the Dow. There the right shoulder would be complete and would set up the potential for a retest of DOW 10,000.

     

    Its getting really scary out there comments welcome.
    28 Jun 2011, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    If you truly believe the above, then patience is your key. If the market really inches up to 12500 on the Dow and then you expect a massive plunge to 10,000 which by the way I completely disagree with (11k, maybe) then why not just get out? If you firmly believe the market will tank 20% why not just get out for a while and climb back in when you feel the plunge is done? Who ever said you have to stay in 365 days a year?

     

    Realistically, the DOW trips and falls a bit but even if it does as we get into the fall and then closer to the holidays the market will rebound. DOW will see at least 13k before year's end, possibly 13.5k. PMs will also see a rebound with silver running back into the mid-40s.

     

    Unless you can find a real diamond in the rough like NAK (thanks again), why not take a breather, watch from the sidelines, read, listen, evaluate and position yourself for a re-entry when you feel the time is right?

     

    Good Luck.
    30 Jun 2011, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    FREYA

     

    I am back with my batteries recharged, if your theory is true then why hasn't gold or silver started to climb back up yet. With that amount of a correction, with everything going on over the pond, should we not see people flocking to commodities yet??

     

    All i saw when i was away was a few pieces of good news and it sounded from the talking heads like all our problems are over!!!

     

    Are they that foolish or am i ???

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had enough knowledge to contribute more than a question, but alas ...

     

    What I'm wondering is when the sellers get exhausted, if they do. Somebody has been buying. Will *they* get exhausted or continue buying.

     

    I guess part of that is *who* is buying? If it's the PPT, e.g., then the buying might never stop?

     

    Is this selling mostly a "sell in May and go away" phenomenon or an end of QE2 effect? A combination?

     

    With the Fed set to reinvest profits from its holdings after QE 2 ends, there'll still be some price support available in fairly substantial amounts. Will some, most of that go to the stock market?

     

    Wish I could contribute more.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jun 2011, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    You are our Chartman, DID this week catch you by surprise?? I mean a few nibbles of good news and the markets explode day after day..

     

    Appreciate your thoughts

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    "Chairman"? Where'd you get that idea? Don't answer - not important. Freya's the one, VP is maybe O.G or Robert or DG or ...

     

    In all honesty, I had reached the point over the last couple of weeks of believing some stuff I had posted as hypothetical counters to the QE 2 end negatives.

     

    So I stayed long everything except one stock that was presenting some bearish indications.

     

    Friday everything was green except NVAX on my portfolio.

     

    Part of my decision was predicated on what I thought would happen with bonds, Greece, QE 2, ... all combined. And sure enough on 6/24 bonds started down.

     

    My feeling had been directed by various articles and thoughts that money would leave bonds and have to find some place to park.

     

    I think I also got helped from an unexpected venue if CNBC commentators are right: under-invested fund managers had to pile in. But this strikes me as non-sensical since they should have done it before EOQ to help themselves look better during the "window dressing" period.

     

    Both myself and, I think, the fund managers were further convinced by the support that appeared at the 200 day SMA beginning 6/16. Since I was already in, it was easy to stay in, hoping I was right in my guess, and the fund managers, if they were not in, would have had a hard time committing until they were absolutely positively sure. Maybe that's why 7/1 instead of 6/24 or so was when they jumped in, if in fact, that's what happened.

     

    Add in the better than expected on some of the reported data (ISM, ...?).

     

    What will happen? You know me - new and all. But I will say that every single TA indicator on the SPY chart is very bullish, with some nearing overbought and some in overbought.

     

    I'm thinking movement on SPX back to $1346, maybe even $1360, is possible and then a pause and reversal. But I'll tell ya', that may still be bullish because ...

     

    We have an absolutely *beeeooootiful* cup formed here. But it's a little brief - 5/31 to present. If we reverse here or anywhere near those other points I mention and make the "handle", we've got a TA bullish indicator - "cup and handle".

     

    Volume action suggests that we'll at least pause some in the range mentioned ... but we had volume decline *into* a long weekend so we don't know how much credence to give it yet.

     

    For the handle to form, we want to see its low stay above ~1300, depending on the level at which the right "lip" of the cup is formed. Anyway, should retrace no lower than 50% of the rise from ~1258 to the right "lip". And it would be *really* supportive if the "handle" was nicely rounded and had a little "cupping" and width to it, but not "too much".

     

    10 and 20 day SMA are curling up and the 50 just finished "flattening" from a mild downtrend. It will have a definite upward bias Tuesday *unless* we get a big drop.

     

    On the negative side, I have concerns that rail traffic has continued to decline. Too much more of this and we should see other indicators begin to weaken along with that. That would suggest future weakening GDP, and related, numbers that could deflate this rally rather quickly.

     

    If sentiment becomes overly bullish (there already?), a reversal is most certain. If the Fed's QE Replacement of reinvesting dividends from its holdings is large enough (unlikely?) to drive bond prices back up, decreasing yield substantially (and this "substantially" is the part I most strongly doubt), money might continue to flow to equities. If bond prices continue to fall, increasing yields substantially *and* folks decide that the debt limit will get raised (so they are again "safe"), money could exit equities and head right back to bonds as folks decide "What a Deal!".

     

    There's also been talk about $ leaving emerging markets but I know even less of this and can only say if it's true, the money has to go somewhere. Some of the CNBC folks claim it's already happening and headed to our equities, others disagree.

     

    In an insta from 11/30/2009, seekingalpha.com/insta..., I included

     

    "A summary of what I'm thinking right now is there is a reasonable chance that the market will trend up for a while yet, although there will be pull-backs, I'm sure"

     

    and

     

    "... there is a good chance that sentiment can carry us upward, overall, for another month or two at least".

     

    I started that article the weekend after Friday 11/20 when the S&P closed at $1091. The S&P moved to close at $1150 on 1/19/10 before a corrective wave down to $1062 on 2/4/10 occurred, a potential H&S began forming and the whole market and CNBS was blathering on about "Is this it? Is this what we've been waiting for? Is this 'The BIG ONE'". We were so naive then, not realizing just how *really* manipulated the market was. We knew it was, but I don't think any of us realized how *strongly*.

     

    I'm getting that same feeling now, but with less detailed analysis. But maybe that's being offset somewhat (hopefully!) by having learned some more since then and maybe that will pay dividends now.

     

    I really think the upcoming earnings season is going to be the controlling factor though. Top and bottom line with guidance should control near-term action when it starts.

     

    Again, n00b here, MHO, your own DD is required, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Uh, i called you CHARTMAN....not CHAIRMAN....please reread what i wrote....

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Lol! Yep. That's two I misread just in one day.

     

    Too long at the keyboard I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Ran across this from 6/30 that should be taken into consideration as a contra-indication of the apparent bullishness of a simple TA of the SPX that I used.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    It talks about the margin levels and COH in the markets, along with examination of deviations from means in other areas, that seem to suggest that the market will *not* remain bullish for long and also suggests that if a correction starts it could be quite significant and quick

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jul 2011, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that interpretation because that article to me was more gibberish than anything else which in the end did not give a definitive position on anything other than short term SPX which most investors can't afford anyway.... nor did it give any firm opinion on when the market might drop hard or what sectors would be more likely to suffer. I will say this much....now at least I have a better understanding of where you get your ramble-on and say very little style HTL.
    4 Jul 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    No surprise there, failure to comprehend seems par for the course.
    5 Jul 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    If you don't like it, don't read it.

     

    This thread, indeed this site, welcomes all who actually discuss the market. HTL does. If his work offends you, why not skip over his remarks? My time is precious. Given your propensity for personal attacks having nothing to do with the market, I can now save some time by skipping over yours, as I imagine most here already do.

     

    I'm sure you will feel compelled to respond, no doubt in a personal rather than a professional manner. I won't notice or read whatever sputtering invective you choose to respond with. I was taught early on, first as a young Special Forces A-Team commander, later on in business, that civility is no vice even in the dangerous business of UW (unconventional warfare) / disparagement from someone incapable of civil discourse is of no interest or import.
    5 Jul 2011, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Robert i am confused

     

    If you manage large portfolios can you explain what you learn by posting here pretty much daily. One would think that you would have more important things to do .

     

    Cuious because if i gave you a half million dollars of my money i would be disturbed hearing about your vacations in the KEYS, i WOULD be more concerned knowing you were looking at future potential investments.

     

    Now maybe you get your ideas here, appreciate your reponse. I consider myself a noobie so maybe i am mising something important, Please do not take offense to this as i am trying to learn. Thanks

     

    ACEHART
    6 Jul 2011, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    With ECB and IMF backstopping Greek debt and propping up that economy whether they take austerity measures or not things get even more dicey in the Eurozone. Pushing off the inevitable until a later day just continues the same sad spiral for a little longer. Italy and Spain are still waiting in the wings to shock the European economy when their problems come to a head. Spain won't take too long either with unemployment at 25% and youth unemployment over 40%. Here in the U.S. the battle over the debt limit will continue right up to the last second. Who will blink? With continued uncertainty on almost every front the market will continue to experience turbulence. PM and cash are king so the insiders are getting out of equities and into those commodities that promise more stability and better returns.
    28 Jun 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I'm of course tracking the ongoing correction from the recent high (Dow was 12,800 or so). Variations are to be expected, particularly (as HTL pointed out) since we are still seeing PPT and QE, plus the oddball machinations with the commodity exchange rules and the oil sales.

     

    I have been wrong before, and I really hope I am now, but I see at least another 10% drop.

     

    I don't believe that money is flowing FROM the emerging markets and to ours. On the contrary, it is flowing from world wide equity markets and into cash (and in countries not saddled with idiot children playing games with commodity exchange rules, precious metals). Pundits and their assumptions based upon "things USED to work that way" are not to be trusted.

     

    I took a turn around some of the goldbug sites, and there is much confusion from headlines like this.

     

    Honestly, I don't know why it should be puzzling.

     

    When the meltdown hit us, people pulled OUT of the markets and huddled in cash and commodities - to the point where our lords and masters in Washington took real pains to engineer things to literally FORCE them to move their money back into circulation, and out of commodities. It didn't really work (even near zero rates of return for CDs and bonds did not make the corrupt equity markets attractive to many). Then came the assault on the commodities, cattle prods to push the stubborn investors in the direction the Administration wants them to go.

     

    Even now, we see huge sums sitting on the sidelines, stranded, and gigantic investments in precious metals, most of them pulled from the commodity exchange and etf vaults and squirreled away as physical metal around the planet.

     

    The emerging market investors are not stupid. They see the same dangers, and are taking similar steps, and few of them are viewing the American markets as the "shining city on the hill" anymore. Voldemort and his Death Eaters have seen to that.

     

    So we must not be confused when the pundits see money flows OUT of the emerging markets, but no matching flows IN to the old safe harbor American markets - for truly, they are safe harbors no more.

     

    The same holds true with the American dollar. By now they probably thought the dollar would be about 10% stronger than it is, well above .80. Problem is that the flight to safety no longer includes the American dollar - and soon it won't even include our commodity exchanges. Voldemort has been stupid enough to pollute the mineral water he is selling the planet, and they are.not.stupid.

     

    So my take is that we WILL test 10,000 DOW soon (10,300 would be about 20%, 22% would be about 10k even).
    28 Jun 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    TRIPLE

     

    After this week do you still feel a retracement to 10k is possible?? I believe we have forces at work here to try and avoid it.

     

    Thoughts, i just got back from a few days away and besides my back it was the best thing for me.

     

    Spoke to some store owners in GETTYSBURG ans they really aren't feeling the pinch that much however the horels are. So my guess are people are just doing a one night stay , not a two nighter

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Just saw your work online for the first time. Very nice... impressive.
    3 Jul 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    As for comparing the effects to 2008, it will be different...

     

    Last time we could move into the commodities and miners, and that path is now very suspect. With commodity exchange rules being used as awkward price control clubs, these havens have become killing fields.

     

    Is the idea to fill the stockyards at the treasury auctions with fresh buyers to replace the departing/scaling back Fed?
    28 Jun 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I think too many of you are losing faith in PMs too fast. On one hand those riding high in PMs before April were talking $100 silver and $3000 gold while others warned that a correction was inevitable. I was in the middle hoping for 50-60 per ounce for silver and while waiting for that to happen watched it plummet to the low 30s in two weeks. So, I commend those who warned us to be careful... but now suddenly its as if PMs have been abandoned even in a time when the dollar is down, the economy is a wreck and turmoil abroad is steady, three key conditions that used to be a screaming green light for buying PMs.

     

    Although this is somewhat baffling, I still believe investors in general will make their way back to PMs when they realize that is still safer than most other options. The only question is how long will it take for people to rediscover the safety and security of PMs again? I'm guessing and hoping its sooner rather than later. I don't expect any big silver run like the one we had from $15/oz to $45/oz in little over a year but I do expect a rebound before we ring in the new year and hopefully beyond. I said a long time ago that as we approach the 2012 elections and all the new promises come out from the candidates, the market will rise from the confidence even though that confidence may not be warranted. It is then I expected PMs to suffer (if only until the new President starts defaulting on his campaign promises) but in the meantime it doesn't make sense for PMs and commodities in general to stay in this rut. I am first to admit that this wacky market makes it difficult to predict a rebound in PMs and commodities but I think once the market regains some common sense silver and gold in particular will be popular investments again. Summer is always a slower and more iffy time in the markets. I am looking for a good fall and better winter in PMs so in the meantime I'm taking a conservative position with investments and looking to the change of seasons for the market to present its next opportunity for valid gains in PMs. That's my opinion and the two-cents its worth. Good night, Happy 4th and have a pleasant tomorrow.
    4 Jul 2011, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    4REAL

     

    Will close to 30 bucks in gold increasing and over a dollar in silver make you feel better??? I know it has for me as i bought on the dip!!

     

    ACEHART
    5 Jul 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. That trick will be a hard lesson I think. They have effectively sabotaged their own product by trying to make equities more attractive than bonds as you correctly pointed out. They have reached a quandary: Making Treasuries more attractive will require raising rates and lowering prices. That action would negatively impact what little recovery activity is going on. This would in turn guaranty that unemployment remains higher than the magic 7% with positive momentum. In fact it could produce the opposite effect shooting unemployment above 10% on negative momentum. Only repealing some of the more onerous provisions recently passed will encourage growth and I don't see any impetus in the Senate or the White House to do anything of the sort. The SCOTUS left us a clue when they left town for three months without addressing Obamacare on the rocket docket. None of the political elite have the stomach to deal with this stuff head on not even life time political appointees.
    28 Jun 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Xcide Technologies (XIDE) will bring it's KS plant into EPA compliance by the end of the year.
    www.theflyonthewall.co...
    28 Jun 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    This is one of those times where I don't think we can separate the political from the investing milieu.

     

    Right now we are seeing the markets being manipulated up on low volume. This builds a buffer above the critically important 200-day MA S&P support level. I have little doubt that the Greek parliament will approve the austerity bill and the markets will go up on that news. However, I don't see any way that the Greeks will be able to demonstrate that they are meeting that bills objectives... I also see great instability in Greece. So I am looking ahead to higher levels of instability caused by European debt contagion.

     

    Meanwhile, I have been following the separate Fed reports (Empire, Philadelphia, Texas). They have all been bad, but that most recent Texas report was a disaster... for example:

     

    Welcome To The Recession: Manufacturing Surveys Imply US Economy Has Entered The Second Month Of A (Re) Recession From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden tinyurl.com/yjzn5hl

     

    I believe it’s likely that the full ISM will be below 50, and that signals economic contraction. That report is due this Friday, July 1. The day after QE ends. I believe that report will take the markets down to the 200 days S&P MA. A lot of effort will then be expended on keeping the market above that 200 day MA by the plunge protection team (PPT). So my short-term plan is to buy FAS, sell it after the Greeks approve the bill and move into FAZ for Friday's plunge. From there I will be watching to see if the line is broken.

     

    On the Recognition of Hogwash:
    The Fed is wishing and hoping for an automotive rebound from the Japanese earthquake to occur and take us out of the hole. They seem to think that when the supply of vehicles increases droves of people will be waiting in the wings to buy them.

     

    I think they have the tail wagging the dog. I see a diminished demand for vehicles. We are not creating enough jobs to fund increasing levels of consumer demand for anything. They will try to manipulate the price of oil downward to provide more spending money. While that will work for a bit, , real inflation on other needed goods and services is at work, providing less and less spending money. JOBS are the key, not gimmicks designed to get a slight pop out of the economy to get his worth-less-ness re-elected.
    28 Jun 2011, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Greetings. Those vehicle sales that were temporally displaced by cash for clunkers and the houses displaced in similar fashion by that home buyers incentive are making their presence felt. Perhaps I should say not felt as those folks that would have been buying about now already made their purchases to get the incentives. Ergo there won't be any spike in automotive sales or housing. After market parts and repair shops should do well though. I financed a car for my son last week and all of the used car sales folks said much the same thing. Used car prices are up and sales are down due at least in part to cash for clunkers pinching inventories and sales migrating south of the border.
    28 Jun 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I decided to buy (TNA) as opposed to (FAS). Now waiting for the Greeks to pass the austerity measure tomorrow. If they don't, good for the Greeks... bad for me...
    28 Jun 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Westport (WPRT), GM to develop natural gas engines

     

    Westport Innovations and General Motors plan to develop a natural gas engine technology for light motor vehicles, in a move to reduce dependence on conventional fuel, sending the Canadian company's shares up 11 percent. tinyurl.com/3skrxyz
    28 Jun 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I've been reading Gayed's articles on a possible spill in the stock market and the economy. I've guessing the situation is bleak as he says, at least in the short term, but not drastically so since the ratio of "risk on" Australian dollar to "risk off" Japanese yen is holding its own so far. I think the autumn will bring a decent entry point for buying scarce metals.
    Any serious military action in the Middle East will be sure to scramble the economic outlooks.
    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    finance.yahoo.com/echa...=;range=1y;compare=;in...
    28 Jun 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Just in case anyone wonders why I am highly pessimistic with respect to the Greeks actually implementing those austerity measures planned for the next five years, and being voted on tomorrow - Check out what the measures entail.

     

    Breakdown Of Greek Austerity Measures
    From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden
    tinyurl.com/3o2ugk2

     

    No way these kinds of cuts and tax increases can be sustained as the Greek economy descends into a deep economic depression. Taxes are dependent on income. Guess what.... a lot less income as jobs and businesses flee the country.
    28 Jun 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    That Greek vote occurs tomorrow at around 7am ET.
    28 Jun 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Two pennies of thoughts on Greece:
    1)
    Greece... 0.43% of Global Economy
    Spain... 1.84% of Global Economy
    Italy... 2.38% of Global Economy

     

    I continue to think the Greek dance is horsefeathers at the end of the day except that knock on effects will bring down one of the bigger two. If Vegas had a window open, I'd throw down a bet on Spain to beat Italy to collapse (mainly because: the Italians are a hair more comfortable with anarchy; the next ECB chief is coming from Italy; and Italy won't be threatened with breaking up into several countries by a serious downturn whereas Catalonia, among others, has wanted to leave Spain for years and years).

     

    2)
    My wife spent a lot of time Greece before we met. She promises me regularly in any conversation regarding taxes that no single group of people in the world avoids paying taxes like the Greeks (she calls tax evasion in Greece their "national sport"). Thus, I am unsure how much "austerity" matters one way or the other if the citizenry votes by stashing more money under their beds and in the walls of their homes.
    29 Jun 2011, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I hope Voldemort is watching and understands the implications of what he's seeing. Nah! From what I've heard he doesn't even want daily economic briefings any more.
    28 Jun 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Stuck between a rock and a hard place
    tinyurl.com/3b9unba
    28 Jun 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    Rather than bore all with my own take, since I just published it as a short SA article about 10 minutes ago, which itself referred to my previous re UUP, I'll just say that so far this rally is following the usual end of month / around holidays / 4th of July rally. My own guess is that it won't last beyond next week and may not last beyond this week -- and my strategy remains to liquidate longs as the gift this week is and lay on RWM, UUP, SEF, SBB, et al...
    28 Jun 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What I have is:

     

    "Climbing the Wall of Worry" VS "The Markets hate Uncertainty"

     

    Which will prevail? I'm taking the latter because its what's internal to the USA that will guide our markets.

     

    I don't give a rat's ass about the EuroZone PIGS included. I care the most about the stupidity ongoing in Congress.

     

    Two trains are approaching each other regarding the Budget unfortunately Both of the trains are playing Chicken and Both are on the Only Track, the collision Will occur.

     

    It Will occur because both sides agreed years ago that USD weakness is desired to "Level the Playing Field" and pay off our debt with inflated $$$. But guess what, instead of gradually weakening the USD, the idiots will do it in one fell swoop.

     

    The "safe haven" status of the USD will be lost.

     

    IMHO
    28 Jun 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Physical Gold/Silver/Platinum Group are actually getting relatively stronger against the stocks that produce these metals.

     

    Those stocks are getting reamed which should not be the case but IS. This is the total opposite of what occured in the 70's which I had been using to compare to the present.

     

    Maybe it is the inclusion of ETFs in the playing field or the Globalization of Markets, Got me.

     

    So how about a few ideas which are "Outside the Box" we are in?

     

    I know you can do better than the above comments.
    28 Jun 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    2nd comment in 6/24/11 AskKuppy - adventuresincapitalism... - may be relevant here Freya:
    "In Jim Rogers’ book “Hot Commodities” he talked about a study showing that during previous commodity bull markets, commodity prices rose 3x as much as commodity producer’s stock prices. He had his theory as to why this was the case related to rising costs. Today the same is holding true so far for gold prices vs. gold miner’s stock prices over the past five years. (See my chart below). Below the chart are two comments from Fleckenstein’s site today from gold bugs thoroughly frustrated (and surprised) that mining stock are lagging gold’s appreciation. They should not be surprised this is happening. This is not abnormal.

     

    Rogers was right, as usual. But keep in mind that according to Fred Hickey’s research the gold miners will significantly outperform gold for about 1 year beginning AFTER gold finally peaks and starts heading down. But who will have the balls to buy them when gold is falling? Very few because it won’t ‘make sense’ as they will look like they are getting more expensive not cheaper. And who among those few will be nimble and disciplined enough to know just when to exit? Even fewer."
    28 Jun 2011, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    FREYA

     

    I hate to use the term this time is different, but i think it is. Whether we have been duped into believing the best way to play the commodities is to actually hold them. Personally that is what i am doing, and from what i read so are other countries,

     

    Are they waiting for the collapse of our fiat dollar?? I could care less to hear from people who came to the USA to escape thier woes, We have them now ourselves. Just like you said the escalator ride down of the dollar seems to be an elevator ride !!!!

     

    Freya, thinking outside the box i saw Bernanke's look and it was one of dispair. He is out of bullets, knows it, and now tricks are being deployed like releasing oil. Robert mentioned that was done for our friends on the other side of the pond. I am not so sure i buy that. You might be right but i think our Generals want to look like they know what the hell they are doing, what plan they have to save us....I come up with nothing but save yourself, get defensive as a terrible day is approaching. It might be months or years away.

     

    But it is coming. The small investor will run back to cash at the first sign of trouble, that is those who are taking a chance. We have some very smart people who post and i am sure got burnt real bad last week for essentially no real good news.

     

    Greece was baked in, so we have ONE mfg. number positive, does that turn a market around?? No, i believe we saw a bull market move in a larger bear market..imho

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Jon but its not only the Gold miners.

     

    Hecla or Taseko for instance. HL and TGB

     

    IMO, the markets price in the future via various computer generated models using various computer generated "what if" scenarios. They bid up the stock to the projected area and wait.

     

    Without buying support, it drops unless something materially applicable occurs. The 70's did not have the computing power or the ability to diseminate the News on a Global Basis almost instananeously.

     

    Whoever was going to buy has done so within a month or 2.

     

    Thereafter, traders step in with their own models and whipsaw Buy and Hold Investors.

     

    ME :)
    29 Jun 2011, 03:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Whipsawing the market ... took profits on (TNA), bought (FAZ).
    29 Jun 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I'm baffled. With this week clearly going in one direction and without any news that should really change the trend why, after such success this week with TNA would you sell and turn to FAZ which has tumbled all week? is there something going on after hours today (Thurs) that you know that the rest of us don't? After hours has TNA down slightly and FAZ up slightly but why is that the case? Something is up and FA seems to know what it is. Care to share?
    30 Jun 2011, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Greetings. I think all of the factors you mention are playing a part in this. Globalization of capital and commodity markets, Information technology and various things that were not prevalent in the 70s. Commodities are not the same as commodity producers and frequently the production side is the least profitable part of a commodity's distribution cycle. It costs money to extract ore from the ground and turn it into a usable form. Not so much to be the dealer selling the final product or the investor trading in it. Cereal and feed manufacturers commonly make more than the farmer who grew the grain (Minus subsidies.). Then there are factors which although they have always been around have only recently been so blatantly displayed like using margins and position limits to control commodity prices. Or equity manipulation based on quant and high frequency trading. Not to mention a brand new IMHO devastating financial product line we lovingly call derivative market trading. Almost makes one wish for the old days when fees were higher but you had to do deals over the phone because online brokerages hadn't been invented yet, almost.
    29 Jun 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't forget about the commodity ETFs and the ability to buy/sell put calls on same.

     

    Stks like CEF didn't exist.

     

    The only reliable thing i have is charts and the formations in same.

     

    And even there I;m screwed because we used daily charts with 1-3 yr timeframes, Now I do minute charts while others think a Minute is a Lifetime.
    29 Jun 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Along with hedge funds, dark pools and shell companies ripping off anyone they can.
    29 Jun 2011, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. Bonal International (BONL) posted record profits. Stock price is back up in the $2.3X area. Did you ever buy in? I hope they retain the semiannual dividend.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    29 Jun 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    For those who did not see it and might be interested, I posted a reference article on investing in Mongolia:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    For those who already did: thank you.

     

    For those who commented: thank you very much.
    29 Jun 2011, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    The Chicago PMI just came out and its hugely positive.... 61.1 vs. expected 54! That's a huge jump and the complete opposite of the Empire, Phila, and Texas PMIs. Market popped on the news... I stopped out of (FAZ) with a loss as the whipsaw whipped me....
    30 Jun 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Ah... didn't read this one before responding to the last. OK, then you didn't have any hidden secrets ... you just had a hunch. However, now in after hours those two are going in the direction you expected Thursday so is Friday the day to whip the saw and get in with FAZ to recoup your losses and and maybe see some gains as well?
    30 Jun 2011, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » if the Dow can rally above the prev high, will look for 14k
    30 Jun 2011, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Talon Therapeutics (TLON) has delayed NDA submission and posted less than stellar results. PPS reflects investor disappointment.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    30 Jun 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    That TLON was another attempt at a penny stock homerun in the QC but going the way of most others offered in QC it turned out to be a strikeout instead.

     

    However, that NAK was a beauty going from $7 to $10 in nine days. Finally took a breather today but didn't lose much. Meantime SIRI has been another real winner this week. Added a bunch of that one same time I grabbed NAK. The two together have been a homerun this week... OK maybe a triple but very nice upward movement in a short period of time. Only question is, does it carry into next week for either or both? One can only hope so.

     

    Incidentally, SIRI was first on my list in the Amazing Race selections... took a little while but could be running now!
    30 Jun 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Sirius XM (SIRI) was discussed a long time ago on the QC. Investors should be aware that SIRI has a very checkered past, limited up side until they can prove themselves a winner in the space and an occluded future. They may not be the winning technology in the space with competition from HD digital radio and internet radio streaming. They are under severe market share pressure, and they have enormous debt. Caution is warranted with this stock. Until they can reduce debt and prove themselves a winner the stock will remain range bound. Should one of the others prove the winner stock price would likely diminish. Investors should examine Iridium Satellite's history as the end of the story isn't pretty.
    4 Jul 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Rob,
    I've been hearing and reading warnings like yours about SIRI stock since way back when I got in at $.88/sh. It's now worth nearly 2.5 times that with more potential upside in the near future. Will it last forever? .. of course not... never said it would. I have said its a good investment now because over the past year or so car sales have done pretty well and Sirius thrives off that. If I go in at $.88 and get out at $2.65, I triple my money and I think that level is more than realistic and soon. Over-analyzing a company and predicting that one day the roof will fall in is good for the long term but stocks like this one are paying nicely while the roof stays intact.

     

    So what's better, riding SIRI from $.88 to $2.65 over 18 months keeping an eye out for signs of the roof falling in or dumping your cash into stocks like CPST and/or AXPW where in those same eighteen months you make nothing and probably lose some money waiting for them to take off? Who is the fool in that scenario???
    4 Jul 2011, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure it was right there with your $7 (NAK) purchase.
    5 Jul 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    I wish i was in on SIRI . Now the next order of business is for the govt to do away with unions. They are crippling the country. Can you imagine a person gets laid off and the union doubles the unemployment?? When i found that out i wondered where that money was coming from?? Us buyers of the products. So the self employed or small businessman is behind the 8 ball and all i hear are these union guys crying they have to give back something.

     

    Join the rest of the world and pay your way the rest of the world has to. That stat was amazing !!! Here are the rest of the world trying to make ends meet and a union guy is crying he isn;t getting triple pay for working yesterday..

     

    Who is crippling who here??

     

    My apologies if any of you post here, and for being rude to a fellow guest...is that how it goes???

     

    ACE
    5 Jul 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    been there done that... admitted I was in error... I like your jokes more than your recollections of old incidents that have been explained and if you don't believe me, guess what, I don't care because its true. Another truth is my 5 for 5 picks up 16% since June 20. Feel free to take a look at that post...its the one that mentions foot in mouth disease, an ailment suffered by a regular in here.
    7 Jul 2011, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Greetings. My apologies for being rude to a fellow guest in the space you have so graciously provided here. I hope all that frequent this board have a great holiday week end.
    2 Jul 2011, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    You got class Robert!
    2 Jul 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Robert

     

    When i started to read this group you seemed to look ahead a lot. So i was looking to add some dividend plays for my future. I am handicapped and cannot work full time so is your opinion to wait until a correction might occur or just place my long term bet regardless.

     

    Appreciate your opinion

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ace,

     

    We have 10k shares of PSEC in a regular account from which I get $1k a month as supplementary income. If I were to reinvest same I could pick up another 1,000 shares but am not because I wanted that $1k delivered.

     

    In 8 years the investment will be "free". My confidence lies with the Company's Insiders who also own substantial amounts, Officers and Directors.

     

    We also have 8k shares In an IRA which won't be tapped for another 4 years. a nice build up.
    3 Jul 2011, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    freya

     

    Thanks for your reponse as i guess a few posters just choose to ignore questions, Which is fine as i have learned the class posters from the asXX posters. MY precious time will be saved for those who are willing to help rather than just THOSE who look for the ole thumbs up!!! With mostly garbage info anyway!!!

     

    ACEHART
    7 Jul 2011, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    My sentiments exactly Ace!
    7 Jul 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    aceheart, 4Real: Greetings. I have found you both to be classless and crass. Your treatment of some of the members here has been reprehensible IMO. I have been ignoring you ace to avoid such treatment being dished out to me. This is in all likelihood the last time I will address you directly as I have lost all respect that I had for you. As for you Alphaman/4Real what ever you choose to call yourself I never had any respect for you. Your obsession with the rating system here has been stunning. You fail to realize that many of us have been posting here since the beginning of SA with thousands of comments and have been in and out of the top 100, 50, 20 and 10 on more than one occasion. Some of us like Freya have sustained and survived multiple attacks from insiders at SA and pests like the pair of you. Some of us have had entire comment streams deleted, Insat blogs deleted and other less visceral attacks like your thumbs down campaign 4Real. Ace may even have been assisting that effort judging by your present coziness. All things considered your continued presence here reminds me of that song from the sixties "Little Willy, Willy won't go home.". Why would you insist on staying in a forum that is at the least mildly hostile to your presence? Go ahead hit the abuse button. I've copied this to a folder and will post it again and again.
    7 Jul 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday (July 1, 2011) , the S&P closed about 23 points above its upper Bollinger limit*. I wondered if this was as remarkable as I thought it was, so I took a look at historical data. What I did was to plot the Gap between the daily closing adjusted S&P and its' upper Bollinger limit from January 1980 to July 1, 2011.

     

    There were 7,949 trading days between January 1980 to July 1, 2011. During those 7,949 trading days, the Gap between the daily closing adjusted S&P and its' upper Bollinger limit exceeded 25 S&P points only 28 times (.35 %).

     

    I looked at a narrower time interval between January 2009 and July 1, 2011. The S&P closed more than 25 S&P points above its upper Bollinger three days in this time interval. These are indicated on Figure Two with the three vertical red arrows. One on May 8, 2009, another on August 3, ,2009, and the one September 20th, 2010.

     

    During these 630 trading days, the S&P closed more than 25 S&P points above its upper Bollinger three days or .48%.

     

    You can see the figures associated with this analysis in my Insta on the subject tinyurl.com/3lbog33
    _______________________

     

    I think what happened on Friday was that money left bonds and flowed into equities. This caused a short squeeze… I was watching the Bollinger limit, and shorted on the basis of that trading clue. I got crushed.

     

    At least now I know it can happen, but it is a rare occasion (it happens between .35 and .48 percent of the time).
    2 Jul 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    "... S&P closed more than 25 S&P points above its upper Bollinger three days ... May 8, 2009, another on August 3, ,2009, and the one September 20th, 2010. "

     

    Significance of these: Close 5/8, 5/14: $919.53, $893.07 drop 2.9%, then up and down legs with higher highs and lows on each leg until 7/8 low close of 879.56 started an extended run up ("Sniff, sniff, sniff?? Do I smell a pile dog-QE - Quick Excrement) around here?).

     

    Close 8/3 $1002.63, followed by leg up and down with higher high and low on each leg through low close of $979.73 on 8/17, down 2.3%. Thereafter waves of up/down with successive higher highs and lows through 1/19/10 before a semi-real "correction" occurred. This is the period detailed in my insta of 11/30/09. More evidence of Quick Excrement effects?

     

    9/20/10 Close $1142.71: Quick short leg down down 1.6% to 1124.83 on 9/23, just above the 200 day SMA and then the continued QE-induced "To the moon Alice!" effects until close of 1225.85 on 11/5/10 when we had another "correction" down to $1187.76 close on 11/29/10.

     

    We then resumed our extended run up.

     

    It's unfortunate that these waters are roiled by severe manipulation as it removes the possibility of extracting any meaning (with or without causality) from the interesting facts noted.

     

    Since QE2 is now passe, can we expect similar behavior? This is a significant economic environment change that removes a major potential factor seen in the behavior subsequent to those exceptional Bollinger violations.

     

    Will "earnings season" present as strong a bullish case as in those past periods when improving bottom, and later, top lines were seen? All the pundits have been projecting less stellar performance in those second half numbers (yes, these are first half, but we've recently seen some significant names disappoint in their latest Q reports).

     

    Before we were playing craps with loaded dice.

     

    Now all we've got are regular dice and a slightly tilted table.

     

    And the croupier has an odd seating at the table with a very crooked rake in his hand.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Before getting too excited, consult the immediate period after QE1 ended...

     

    We have about 2 weeks of pretty good market action.

     

    Before it fell off the cliff.
    5 Jul 2011, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    I am back from a quick vacation and i hope this group can calm down and get back to what most do, pick stocks !!! Having said that..

     

    I noticed in my email box quite a few companies are offering silver at a very low premium to spot. So do i take that as a showing that too much silver has been bought and theses companies want to just move it or are we looking at a much lower price in the commodity.??

     

    My feeling is the buying of silver has slowed as it usually does in the summer and will pick up again in the fall. So does this make it a good buying opportunity??

     

    Hope all are having a great 4 th weekend

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    TRIPLE

     

    You have been my mentor, are you as confused as i have been with the price of metals. Forget the market, imho , i still feel we have a nice size correction still ahead,

     

    But silver and gold ??? Thoughts

     

    acehart
    3 Jul 2011, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Ace, I departed the pm arena months back, then re-entered with SNDXF Sandstorm Gold and their warrants. As I've said before, I have been buying physical, primarily silver when it was cheap. I have since started picking up gold, and am selling down my silver hoard somewhat to seque into gold.

     

    I do not see silver and most other commodities as safe havens for longs for the immediate future, but I am hoping I am wrong. I have been wrong before.
    5 Jul 2011, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Posted an insta on opening a brokerage account in Mongolia for anyone interested:
    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Most useful investments of the past week were researching genealogy and spending time with family.
    3 Jul 2011, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    FREYA

     

    Do you still have a strong opinion of PSEC. I remember you saying you were heavy into them. Just wanted your take on it. Have a happy 4 th as well

     

    Thanks

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » look at my prev. comment on PSEC.

     

    Stock prices may fluctuate and PSEC is currently, IMO, suffering from the "Imminent" 2nd recession. But, PSEC continued to pay, at least, this amount throughout the 2nd Great D so I'm not currently concerned.

     

    Caveat, If Insider selling starts in ernest, I will go with the flow too.
    3 Jul 2011, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    DM

     

    With the market so strong last week are you still convinced that APPLE is still a strong play as you were a few weeks ago when we chatted???

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Well, let's see. My last online recommendation was that October $300 calls that were going for $32 looked like a steal. They closed Friday at $49.55, meaning $3200 would have made you $1700 in a couple weeks. Not too shabby.

     

    But I am holding the calls I bought for a while longer. I think AAPL is poised to challenge new highs this fall and possibly break the $380 mark. This means if you bought shares Monday, err Tuesday, at $343, you could still see 10% in the next few months.

     

    I think AAPL's days of doubling every year are over. But I still believe in the strength of the company and the stock. I agree with 4Real that the stock may take a hit (will take a hit) if and when there is bad news about Jobs. But I think that once that matter is settled, there will be no more big scary unknowns and the stock will quickly rebound to new highs. Just an opinion.
    3 Jul 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Ace,

     

    Apple has been bouncing up and down between $320 and $360 for quite a long time. I don't see that one as a wise play now. It was a brilliant buy a few years ago but not sure it will go much higher than it already has. Plus, Steve jobs is skinny as a rail and i don't think he is well. Regardless who is in charge when Steve gets more ill, Apple stuck will take a hit. Unless you have about 60k to throw into it (200 shares)and play the rises, I wouldn't bother with that one.
    3 Jul 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Which 4REAL is this ???? Oh the real one, i see by the postings...

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    DM and 4REAL

     

    Thanks for your opinions

     

    ACEHART
    3 Jul 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I heard comments on Bloomberg on this today:

     

    www.miningaustralia.co...

     

    Considering the Depth, I don't think any mining will be done in the Immediate future But, attempts will be made to Claim the property.

     

    A conflict on the horizon?
    3 Jul 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Greetings. I hope your holiday week end has been all you wished for. Are you still holding Nautalis Minerals (NUSMF)?
    4 Jul 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Greetings. Saw your answer on the concentrator. Nice.
    5 Jul 2011, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Today's action...combined with Friday's...here's some recent movers and shakers that I own (some of which I inferred would rock upwards):

     

    NovaGold--Up today 11.47%, plus another .79% in after hours trading.

     

    Axion Power--Up over 11% last Friday, and held today. Up another .79%. Hoping for a pullback so that I can add more.

     

    Tamm Oil and Gas (TAMO)--Up 7.94% today. Recent acquired shares at .21 are up 13 cents, and the .25 shares up 9 cents. Pretty significant gains percentage wise. 15 cent shares purchased on Feb. 8 are now up over 125%!

     

    Elephant Talk (ETAK)--A stock DM brought to my attention because I followed where he made a comment. Down 4.65% today, but on Friday it shot up from $3.20 and still closed at $3.70 today, despite today's pullback This one's a double by September. Shares I own are up over 28% since June 3.

     

    Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) shares are up a little over 20% since I mentioned the chance for a gain to occur on or before June 16.

     

    Zalicus (ZLCS) shot up 12.88% today. With another 2.66% after hours.

     

    Novavax (NVAX) dropped another 5.08%. I bought more today.

     

    Capstone (CPST) double down shares have risen from $1.37 to $1.54. Break even for me is $1.58. So glad I hung in there with this one. Kudos to HTL!

     

    All these movements happened in the gamer account during the last two trading days. Haven't yet sorted out the brokerage account, but I did see Great Western shoot up 4.67% and Lynas surge 5.73% today.

     

    Considering the DOW was down .1% today, I feel I had a pretty good day.

     

    Bottom line? I've witnessed my gamer account surge upward by over 12% during the past 6 or 7 trading sessions. Not bad.

     

    Finally!
    6 Jul 2011, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Maya - that is wonderful!

     

    Now going forward let's hear what you plan on keeping, dropping and adding. That way, we can all compare notes a month or two or three from now and see what an amazing investor you are. Nothing is better than having someone list their investments BEFORE they move and don't forget the oh so few that didn't jump this past week. Hey, guess what? The Mets are 7-3.. that's a .700 winning percentage... ooops, forgot to mention they were 32-42 before that. The whole picture is what counts.

     

    Good luck moving forward in whatever it is you choose to invest in. Hey, maybe we'll hear about some of them after they jump up 10%.
    6 Jul 2011, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for sharing all that data Maya.
    7 Jul 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    "Capstone (CPST) double down shares have risen from $1.37 to $1.54. Break even for me is $1.58. So glad I hung in there with this one. Kudos to HTL!"

     

    Classic! You are thanking someone because you are 4 cents short of breaking even when in the first place you originally invested in the stock when it was much higher because the same guy convinced you to. That is just classic. Do you have anyone to thank for a stock suggestion that has actually made money????
    6 Jul 2011, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately for you, 4Real, I did make mention of many of these stocks over the course of the past two weeks. Only you were too busy mocking most everyone to notice while the market was sinking. All while trying your best to control all comments toward your little game of attempting to dominate and divide people who've shared so much over the years.

     

    Appreciate how happy you are for my recent success. Though I know you can't stand it!

     

    Once again...do you have any relevant research, where WE could gain? Or, are you now too busy defending your maniacal approach to seasoned folks who could care less what you say, or what you offer, or what you deviously seek to gain, all to make yourself look better to yourself.

     

    Your above comment about Capstone and toward HTL lends nothing to the greater benefit to the rest of us. I repeat...nothing. It only makes you look worse in the eyes of others. If worse can only be obtained.
    6 Jul 2011, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Correction. What I wrote:

     

    "Unfortunately for you, 4Real, I did make mention of many of these stocks over the course of the past two weeks."

     

    Meant to write, "La te da..., I did make mention of many of these stocks over the course from two weeks ago backwards."

     

    Darn dislexia strikes again!
    6 Jul 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I find it most interesting that someone who has accused me of ranting, raving and insulting has just posted four consecutive entries doing just that. Hypocrite.

     

    Here's an idea Maya... I won't address you and you don't address me. That will go a long way to smoothing things out in here. We have both made it clear we do not respect each other... so be it. Now move on and stop whining.
    6 Jul 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Funny, i do not remember you writing after you had a sissy fit that your post were being reviewed, No, you are not above any of us!!!

     

    Rules are made for all to follow, No matter who you try to impress by name dropping, I called a few of them and funny but none of them ever heard of you!!!

     

    Anything to add to that

     

    ACEHART
    7 Jul 2011, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 2 stks to look at in the financial area:

     

    RODM a name from the far past which looks like it had a climactic selloff and is now going sideways, they have done many "deals" recently. Found it by accident when it raised funds for a company I was looking at.

     

    LTS, also a name from the far past which has had a breakout and is now retracing to that level. Insiders seem to love it.

     

    Caveat on both, I do not own either Yet. But will do LTS because of the chart before I do RODM which has to base a while and show more signs of positive accumulation.
    6 Jul 2011, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, deep subject :)

     

    DJIA ascending H&S complete if it stalls and starts moving down.

     

    Many poo pah the DOW but it is the most highly visible index in the World. If It goes down, the Media jumps all over it, worldwide.

     

    I plan to sell AGNC shortly. it has closed its dividend down gap which it does every qtr. before retesting the lows which also occurs every time.

     

    But with the possibility of a Market drop, it may go lower this time. I'm up around 4% in price and $4.20 or 15% in dividends over the last 3 qtrs Including the dividend to be paid at the end of July.
    6 Jul 2011, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the AGNC data, Freya. Its chart had me scratching my head and wondering...
    6 Jul 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is not the time for heroics.

     

    If a position keeps you awake at night, Sell it or buy Puts.

     

    My husband has gone through 2 Anxiety attacks in his lifetime, both related to the stocks we own.

     

    Rushing to the Emergency Room because the attacks have Heart Attacklike symptoms was not conducive to my health either.

     

    Better safe than sorry and looking back is totally foolish since one cannot change the past.
    6 Jul 2011, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Absolute wisdom, Lady Dragon. I am a true believer and an acolyte in that church.
    6 Jul 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    FREYA

     

    Xanax does wonders for anxiety attacks

     

    ACEHART
    7 Jul 2011, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    JP Morgan saying Novartis could pop and gain as much as 33%. there ya go - a stock suggestion from me but since certain members in here refuse to spend more than $2 per share on anything I guess that suggestion won't qualify.
    6 Jul 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Drat! Not a single post all day on the QC or here. I thought maybe his Mom got ticked off and kicked him out of the basement or wanted to do some online shopping and booted him off the computer. Oh well.
    6 Jul 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Funny stuff RF
    6 Jul 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    4Real: Greetings. Glad you liked it. I've got a million of em. Your likely to see most of them before long.
    6 Jul 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Hey, I'm all in for a good joke even if I'm the target. If they're as good as that one, feel free to blast away. We need some humor in here other than the laughable stock picks of some members.
    6 Jul 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I have a buy in on FAZ at 43.65 today (7/6).

     

    Obama said a debt ceiling deal would be in place in two weeks... I would think the markets would spike on that, but its two weeks away.
    6 Jul 2011, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Missed... bought FAZ at 43.69.... also bought SDS at 20.05...
    6 Jul 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Note: I put safety stops on these as well...
    6 Jul 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Stopped out on the safety....
    7 Jul 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Global Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 Update: Commodities by: Damien Cleusix tinyurl.com/3dlp2op
    6 Jul 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    In the spirit of offering more of my personal favorites and articles that support them I offer this link,,,
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    which calls for one of my holdings and favorites SIRI to possibly rise to $2.75 and another I have been watching and probably will acquire soon... LVLT

     

    For the most part I have stayed focused on PM and mining stocks which are doing well but SIRI has been a favorite of mine way back since I first got in at $.88 and LVLT, is another non-metals stock I have found that shows promise.

     

    Goodnight and have a pleasant tomorrow.
    7 Jul 2011, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I just fell out of my chair reading this Bloomberg article:
    "President Barack Obama and lawmakers are considering cutting Social Security and increasing revenue by changing the way the government measures inflation....Advocates say the change is needed because the government’s current measure of inflation overstates how quickly prices rise.... There is a 'pretty widely held' consensus among economists that the bureau’s methodology exaggerates inflation because it doesn’t fully account for how individuals respond to rising prices, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.... It accounts for those who buy cheaper brands of wine or steak when those prices rise, though not for those who opt instead for beer or chicken."
    www.bloomberg.com/news...

     

    Basically, they're saying inflation is over-reported because when stuff we want gets too expensive, we'll buy something else, so counting the inflation on the original item we wanted before it got too expensive is an inaccurate representation of the inflation we're experiencing.

     

    For example, we might want a new bed mattress, but maybe we can only afford an air mattress because the price of beds went up... so would it fair of the government to calculate inflation based on the price of a bed mattress we can no longer afford when our "sleeping dollars" went to a far cheaper air mattress thus proving that our "sleeping cost" is actually going down and deflationary?
    7 Jul 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Never ceases to amaze me how the devious minds work in pursuit of their goals, nor how stupid "The Elitists" believe the general populace to be.

     

    We may be quite stupid, but I doubt we're quite *that* stupid.

     

    Want a good read Jon? I can give you a nice little link to discussion of "hedonic adjustments", IIRC, wherein the same item is adjusted up in value to inflate the reported GDP and adjusted down in value to deflate the reported inflation.

     

    So many lies to tell, ways to tell them and so little time.

     

    <*sigh*> What's a politico to do?

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    HTL -

     

    I've read my share of John Williams stuff over on shadowstats.com and am familiar with hedonic adjustments. I even did a one hour presentation on it once complete with meat and vegetable props.

     

    I will, of course, take on any good reads, though I'm piling on the to-read list fast.

     

    My concern from this particular Bloomberg article is it sounds like hedonic adjustments on steroids. I don't know how anyone could consider investing in TIPS when the gov't is basically saying they're going to pick the inflation number they like and rework the statistics to get it.

     

    This is going to hurt retirees, disabled, inflation based wage increases for regular working people, and pretty much anyone who actually needs to pay attention to the price of groceries when they shop.

     

    Just about 11pm local. With these thoughts, I go to bed early for a change. Been a pleasure catching up with lots of good 'Gades comments all over SA today.
    7 Jul 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    When we're all living in mud huts and eating gruel, we'll have the strongest economy in the world. It's pretty simple, really. And we'll have a 10% rise in disposable income.

     

    Are they going to count my ice pack and aspirin as the replacement for a costly visit to the doctor? Because medical costs could use the "good news treatment" too...
    7 Jul 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The same group has an alternative method for taxing your home based upon what you could rent your home for. If you choose to live in the house instead of rent it, you are a greedy capitalist, and you get to add the "inferred rental income" to your income tax return.

     

    Lovely little looter's scheme, eh?

     

    Folks who are dumb enough to own a vacation home or a condo somewhere get a double whammy.

     

    Even folks who actually DO own rental property get nailed, for those days when they DON'T have a rental. Now they get taxed whether they rent or not.

     

    One version with a somewhat more "compassionate" angle allows you to write off the actual bedroom you sleep in. How kind of the looters! Of course, a couple with grown children living in a 3 bedroom house, for instance, would owe income taxes on "rental income" whether they actually rented out every bedroom every night and had any rental income or not. Obviously, they SHOULD pay more taxes, being greedy rich folks owning more room than they "need".

     

    Anyone questioning the logic of it will receive a marxist lecture on how the tax system SHOULD be designed to create a more "efficient society".

     

    Huh. Imagine the demand for 1 bedroom efficiency apartments, as Americans are driven out of their homes by confiscatory taxes.

     

    Next we can talk about the 3.7 million jobs the current administration created with all that deficit spending...
    7 Jul 2011, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Gee...I wonder what the tax consequences are for the 2BR home in Wyoming where allegedly 2000 corporations are headquartered? Ah...for tax purposes, of course.
    7 Jul 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    They'll pay no tax and will get a rebate from Unkie Sammy for "maximum utilization of available space - a sterling example of how all good citizens should strive to contribute to the common good".

     

    Every 10 years when the census is done, the town will have a temporary population explosion of course. Or they could just say "They're away on business, but I can give you all the information".

     

    OTOH, the government could just hire one of those businesses, temporarily, to be the census taker for that area.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Greetings. I saw that article to. Wouldn't they get a tax credit for housing so many corporations (Real or on the shelf.) in such a small house with just one actual worker there. Now that's efficient!
    7 Jul 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    DM: Here's an example of "hostage medicine" at its finest. Here in PA the law is that you have to visit your physician once a year merely to have your prescriptions be renewed. I've managed to extend this sometimes by three months. What a crock that is.

     

    My physician admitted it's like holding his patients up for ransom.

     

    ####

     

    Picked up some (OOIL) two days ago.

     

    Bought some (BCON) today, too.
    7 Jul 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    They did. That's the HQ for ACORN...

     

    No, wait, their office only has about 40 or 50 companies sharing drawer space.

     

    Of course, then we have the wacky couple that advertises Los Vegas encorporation with hour-long infomercials on the radio. Imagine how many corporations are registered to THEIR address!
    7 Jul 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Like many small business owners, I don't have health insurance. It is less expensive for me to pay out of pocket for doctor's visits than buy insurance. The money I save is used to invest in stocks and in my company, so over the long haul the return will help me afford higher medical costs in the future or to buy insurance.

     

    I am severely allergic to bee stings. I need to carrry an epi-pen lest I go into shock and die if I am stung. The pens only keep about a year. I called my doctor for a refill. The person on the phone said it had been two years since my last appointment and they wouldn't fill it without seeing me. "Why?" I asked. "It's not like I am not still allergic to bee stings." "Well we just don't work like that," she said snottily.

     

    The health care system is broken in more ways than I can count. Why would you force a healthy person to be seen for a routine refill of a drug I hope I never have to use?
    7 Jul 2011, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    D.M: Greetings. It's called onerous regulation of the doctor patient relationship.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Robert, Oh yes, the dreaded ORDPR. Do they make a pill for that? Because I'd call my doctor today, even if it meant I had to pay for an appointment.
    8 Jul 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    D.M: Greetings. I wish! Then they could get away from the ORDPR and just fill your ORDER. Imagine that, efficiency. Quick, kill it before it grows!
    8 Jul 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    What the government should do...is disband Moody's all together.
    7 Jul 2011, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Why not? I'm sure they can trump up something against them. Oh wait they are probably on the friends of Carlotta list.
    7 Jul 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Bravo Brio Restaurant Group (BBRG). I was hoping for a pullback so folks who had this one on their radar could consider jumping aboard. Stock has rallied big and is now pushing $25.00 per.
    7 Jul 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Interesting take on the Euro rate hike. I tend to agree that this is a sign of weakness, not strength. I also believe it will help to stem capital flight from Europe only slightly...

     

    I am not so sure that the flight to safety will feature American dollars and American markets this time, though.
    7 Jul 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. I would have to agree with you that our currency and debt instruments are not looking all that safe these days. With the hostile business environment, political infighting and economic uncertainty I wouldn't feel my money was safe here. Shoot I don't think my 401K and IRA are safe any more!
    7 Jul 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Another idea to shift responsibility for determining what is Constitutional and what is not... To the current President. This to get around any Congressional awkwardness with items like the Debt Limit.

     

    Presumably this would also require abolishment of the Supreme Court (shoot, they might even think that THEY have some say as to what is really Constitutional or not)...

     

    Yep. Another example of how to create a more "efficient society".
    7 Jul 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    As people look to why the market hasn't fallen as expected after the expiration of QE2, I, the eternal optimist am looking for reasons why the market stays strong and where it may go from here. In Yahoo finance today there was an article that cited three reasons the markets were up despite continuing debt crises. Those three were…

     

    (1) Initial jobless claims report. According to today’s report, initial jobless claims fell 14,000 last week. Also released today was Automatic Data Processing’s June jobs survey , which found that 157,000 private-sector jobs were created last month, well above expectations.

     

    (2) Also released today was Automatic Data Processing’s June jobs survey , which found that 157,000 private-sector jobs were created last month, well above expectations.

     

    (3) Retail. Same-store sales were up in June, pushing the S&P Retail Index up 2.36% today.

     

    OK, so all that is great and I understand why these three factors help the market stay on an upward trend. What I don't understand is when does this good news expire??? In other words…

     

    (a) was the market up just today due to the news and that's it?
    --or--
    (b) will this news carry the market for a few days, even into next week?
    --or--
    (c) will this news help keep the market going strong until stronger negative news overshadows it?
    7 Jul 2011, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    4Real: Greetings. You really should pay more attention to what is said. FPA and TB both did excellent research on this topic and concluded that the drop should take place after the 16th of the month. Freya and One Eye reached a similar conclusion. I agree with their analysis. BTW some Senators are introducing legislation to end the ethanol subsidy. While this should not greatly affect the price or availability of corn it will likely drive up costs for mixers like Valero Energy (VLO) and Marathon Oil (MRO). IIRC we had done some research on the Valero expansion last year but didn't find it all that appealing. I'm going to look at them again if this passes as it may provide a suitable dip for opening a position.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    First, there is no need to have any concerns regarding attacks from this writer as we move forward. I had a nice exchange of emails with two members and one editor and feel content that I have made my points and am anxious to move forward with market discussion. I appreciate any replies either in the forum or via email and hereby promise to end negative references to other members. That is not to say I won't question other opinions or picks but there will be no more direct attacks on anyone. I think that is fair and of course if you choose not to reply to my posts and/or questions, that is fine too. I am placing this posts in a few forums so all will note that the effort to move forward with the correct demeanor has been established at approx 10pm Eastern.
    7 Jul 2011, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I would also like to offer my favorites and how I plan to move forward with them. On June 20, as documented in our QC, I purchased RIC, SLW, PAL, EGO and BRD. I have been in and out of SLV, most of the time :in: foir the past 18 months and a similar condition holds true for SIRI.

     

    I have an online broker and a set (modest) amount of money in the account which I use to trade often. Money in IRAs and other long term funds are not included in my daily account and I do not discuss them publically. I do, and would like to discuss my online account in here although I will not offer exact dollar figures of the portfolio which I think is pretty much the same with everyone else.

     

    I read extensively and watch business news channels whenever time allows and listen to Bloomberg News on the radio once in a while when driving. I personally feel that educating oneself in the market with as many sources as possible is the smart way to go. Although I peek at charts and trends now and then I do not in any way feel confident in any "trends" or "charts." I just don't think they are very good tools when deciding what to do with my hard earned money.

     

    My research has me believing that at least in the short -term, my favorite, silver is going to rise. Since I like the ETF SLV when investing in silver I either have or am about to sell some of the stocks in my online portfolio so I can acquire a supply of SLV in a short-term move. My gains the past three weeks in the aforementioned SLW, PAL, EGO and BRD have been excellent but I no longer choose to diversify in metals right now and instead will buy SLV tomorrow. I also own SIRI, NAK, AA, TC and AUY. I will probably sell SLW, PAL, EGO, BRD and TC tomorrow and use those funds to acquire a pretty good chunk of SLV. I will hold SIRI, NAK, AA and AUY but have stops in place for all four.

     

    I just picked up AA recently based on a suggestion from a friend and as always, plenty of reading. Alcoa will announce 1Q earnings Monday and I believe the report will boost the stock price. I made a similar investment last year with this same stock just prior to an earnings report and the stock price dropped. Fortunately, it wasn't much of a loss but the strategy failed... so I'm trying it again. Once again I have a stop order in place to be sure there are no significant losses.

     

    As I have said earlier I have "untouchable" long-term investments put away in strategic funds for retirement. The online account I have is not petty money but not a large part of my overall portfolio either. Let's just say its several thousand dollars with five figures although I'd certainly love to build it up to six figures eventually.

     

    With the online account I trade daily, weekly, monthly, whatever... all based on research and my own conclusions. With the exception of April's hard hit on silver I have done quite well with this account.

     

    It is my intention to move forward, try to learn as much as I can in the SA forums among other places and have continued success in the market. I am hoping others will allow me the opportunity to distance myself from past comments and establish a new demeanor moving forward. To those willing to watch and see with an open mind, I appreciate that. To those who wish to have nothing to do with me and my posts, I certainly don't blame you. I just want to move forward so to be honest and up front about what i am investing in, I have listed my online portfolio, thoughts and plans to everyone in this post.

     

    I wish all of you good luck in the market.
    8 Jul 2011, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Your self guided stock account sounds like mine. It is money I can "afford" to lose. Not in the sense that it wouldn't suck to go zero, but in the sense that I am not going to starve if it does. I have a separate retirement account that is very young and very small. My "recreational portfolio" is in the 5 digits bumping up a couple times against 6 until I find I need money for something major like home repairs. But with patience and TLC a decent return on a 5 figure account will get above 100k eventually and then the returns can get really large (to a grunt like me, I mean).

     

    Here's my problem with silver and all PM's and the miners:
    There is undoubtedly headroom in these areas. These prices will rise. As miners announce earnings based on recent prices, they should get decent upward momentum... But that's the good news, not the bad.

     

    I don't believe there is greater than a 10% chance that we are headed the way of dollar collapse (nor default on our debts, BTW). I think the most likely scenario is a slow and steady climb out of this chasm, complete with the horrible drag of too many people out of work and receiving assistance (the wisdom of this assistance aside, the fact is that the money spent on assistance will 1. continue, and 2. amount to a great deal of money).

     

    So as the economy recovers, which I think it slowly will, we will reach an inflection point. This point of new hiring and sun breaking through the clouds will chase a lot of speculators out of PMs. The lofty valuations we will continue to see for the rest of this year (probably) have an insurance premium (i.e. the PM's are popular in case it all goes to hell in a handbasket). When the fear trade is gone, silver will be back in the $20's, IMO.

     

    So I don't think anyone in silver needs to panic. But I do think that its days as a 20%+ play are numbered.

     

    I'm starting to sniff around and put money into recovery stocks. Auto makers (TTM) and (F) are attractive to me, and I just found out that Toyota (TM) owns the non-white car market in this country. The population growth is disproportionately hispanic, and if Toyotas are popular among this demographic, they have great growth potential. So I have been eyeing TM. Note I am not saying I have bought any of these just now. I have been in and out of TTM lately though.

     

    My money right now is tied up (possibly too tied up) in AAPL options. They have been working very well for me lately, but I got burned on them early in the year. The year I decided to start buying call options on AAPL happened to be their worst six months in 3 years, so that was a nasty surprise. So I am trying to ride the current crop of winners to undo the damage caused by my inexperience and bad luck earlier in the year. Once some of the dust settles on these calls, I intend to start accumulating the recovery stocks I mentioned above. Also the bank stocks will be part of this play. C maybe and BAC likely. I hate these companies, but I wouldn't mind making some money on the stocks, and I suspect that years of zero interest loans from Uncle Sugar will eventually allow them to right their ships. I look for these stocks to do well in 2012.

     

    Finally, I am slowly accumulating PSEC. Freya's mention of this stock sounded too good to be true. But it is just insane. Money in your account each month, like a savings account on crack.
    8 Jul 2011, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    DM: Toyota is a very interesting play right now. Having spent somewhere close to a year in Central America, Toyota dominates that expanding market, by oodles!

     

    If you were to own a Chysler van, as do my pals Twisted Tanya and her hubby, you simply cannot find replacement parts, anywhere.

     

    Ford is also making huge in roads (pun intended) in Central America. Both these two companies hold a baffling percentage.

     

    Among the wealthy, like drug dealers and business leaders, BMW is the car to own. Surprisingly, Jeeps, and most other SUVs are near nonexsistent, except Hummers, which scream of drug money. Though I have noticed Toyota SUV's are gaining in prominence over the past few trips.

     

    I agree, and as previously written, I think the big banks will lead as we close out this year.

     

    But one thing I do not discount, yet, is that there will be a 20% or more correction. Not soon. But likely sometime between late 2012, and as far away as 2016. Going to be a lot of countries going bankrupt. Perhaps my greatest fear economically speaking is that this is going to become some sort of fad. Bankrupting or defaulting debt...a form of economic freedom I've yet to fully understand.

     

    But I do agree with you. Have to stay invested, otherwise one misses the unpredictable surges like what's going on right now.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Great comment, 4Real. But I'm still suspect. Unfortunately, that you've been bashing most every one every which way for months now, it's going to take an equal amount of time if not way more before anyone here buys into your "qualified" apology.

     

    Can't repeatedly throw angst at the customers at the local tavern, or an AA meeting, or a book club, and after an admission of guilt suddenly expect everyone to receive you with open arms. Things do not work that way when you've assailed the way you have.

     

    Apparently, between the lines, SA has given you a warning. Yet your still not dog-curling your tail between your legs with across the board contriteness. Still doubting the word "contrite" has been ever within your operating criteria.

     

    Simply put, I'm not sensing any hue yet of you morphing out of
    your chameleon status. Just a little more docile is all I see, ever so subtly. But still a control freak.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    DM,

     

    I agree with your take on PMs but I do not believe the downward spiral happens for at least another year. One thing I've noticed and mentioned a couple times in SA forums is how the market behaves around the time of a Presidential election. It is almost as if it is a few months of a fantasy land where promise after promise is spoken and hope of change and better things becomes contagious. With that mindset in place as we get to the fall of 2012, I think PMs suffer. It is merely one man's theory but I think it had validity. At any rate my plan is to jump in and out of PMs and silver in particular for the next 12-14 months to see what I can accomplish with, as you call it, my recreational account although the goal is definitely to make money and put it to good use.

     

    My next theory is that once a new President is elected, and I do believe we will have a NEW President, reality sets in about 6 months into his term and if the promises aren't coming true and the economy is not improving, that happy feeling created in election time fantasy land begins to fade at which time I think PMs will once again be a good choice. If the new Prez does a good job and the economy improves then PMs are not so attractive but its going to take a long time to straighten out the mess created in this economy.

     

    I do not agree that we see $20 silver again. In fact, I think and certainly hope that all PMs and silver in particular have a nice run over the next 12 months. The days of doubling and tripling in price within a year are over but I can definitely see silver making its way back into the 40s and maybe even climb into the 50s before the tides turn. Even when it drops in price I don't think we see 20s.

     

    So, with that philosophy in mind I will stick with silver in some way shape or form over the next year. I also like mining stocks so although I'm getting out of those for a short time, I will probably be back in not too far down the line.

     

    I have always liked silver and PMs in general. Its the other stocks I want to gain a better understanding of. Solar, for instance has caught my attention over the past year. I was in LDK for a couple months early in the year and did OK but those stocks have dropped quite a bit since. I think there may be some potential with those, now that they have dropped in price and LDK in particular. Then there's bio and pharm stocks where any new breakthrough could mean big price jumps or even just gov't approvals and progress in research can move them as well.

     

    I'm still learning about different categories of stocks trying to find those that offer the most promise other than my old standby PMs.
    I am realistic about gains in this tough market and economy but there is definitely money to be made and I think it can be done at a steady pace as opposed to religiously sticking by one or two stocks over the long-term waiting for a reward for one's dedication.
    I believe in the more conservative slowly but surely mindset in retirement portfolios although I favor funds that contain many stocks rather than one or two sitting there in the portfolio.

     

    It is the everyday online portfolio I have with which I make moves much more frequently and enjoy doing so. I like the process of learning, gaining a confidence in a stock or stocks, investing in them for a bit and seeing the results. It is very gratifying to read, listen and research, come up with some educated picks and then watching the stocks with hopefully good returns. With the exception of one very bad ten day period for silver in April, my method of investing with my online portfolio has gone very well which encourages me to keep watching, listening and reading all business sources and some of the hotties on Fox Business Network don't hurt either.

     

    Good luck.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » link to the Compass #3:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    What happens to Frannie, FHA, Flood Insurance etc. If not funded?

     

    Insight welcome.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
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