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Freya
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I have my name back, Still looking for a Purrfect picture. I have friends. Time to restart. SA isn't perfect but then I'm not either. But Life is far too short, and as the Roman Gladiators used to say: Eat, drink and make merry because tommorow, you may die. Why hasten your demise, don't worry,... More
  • The Compass #3 126 comments
    Jul 8, 2011 8:29 AM

    The Debt ceiling gets/does not get raised in "time".

    One set of programs which I have yet seen to be mentioned as Entitlements but which are a big part of the current debacle:

    Fanniee, Frediee, FHA, Flood Insurance and their Ilk.

    What happens if these puppies do Not get funded in a timely Fashion.

    Comments welcome, pretty please.

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Comments (126)
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  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Well hate to open up with this ???

     

    Unemployment up to 9.2%

     

    New jobs at 18k only ????

     

    How do you not think depression. I have spoken in the past in NYC of more and more winndshield washers. For thise who do not know what that is basically at a red light they run like rats ( sorry rattie) and spary with dirty water your clean car, wipe your windshield and the basically threaten you for money. I believe this was deemed illegal years ago but they don't care,

     

    Atruly bad sign for our economy in a small test area. But NYC seems to be a step ahead in any process

     

    ACEHART
    8 Jul 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Its early yet, but this is the 2nd wave of layoffs I have been expecting for some time, and this will devastate cities and counties which hitherto have been largely insulated from the Great Recession: government towns.

     

    State capitals will be hard hit, as the state governments finally start trimming staff and cutting subcontractors as the Federal teat runs dry.

     

    County seats will replicate this malaise in minature, as will many cities which rely for much of their income from other government spending like national defense or infrastructure buildout.

     

    Like all such economic disruptions, this will have ripple effects, as private enterprise involved in supplying these customers feel the pinch and commence layoffs (or shutdowns) of their own.

     

    Those looking for historic records of similar cycles will notice that normally this does occur, but in the middle of a vibrant recovery, not stagnation which cannot help balance the books.

     

    July will be the first full month of this new setback, but not the last.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » and a ringee ding dingee to you as well, TV show "Laugh In"

     

    RMCP:

     

    biz.yahoo.com/pz/11070...

     

    bad news is good for some, should help AGNC if the Frannies survive
    8 Jul 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I posted this on the previous Compass: Some Senators are making a deal to eliminate the ethanol subsidy including two from corn belt states. While this should not greatly affect corn supply or price it will likely increase costs for mixers like Valero Energy (VLO) and Marathon Oil (MRO). We had looked at the Valero expansion last year IIRC but I don't think any one jumped on it. I'm going to put it (VLO) on my watch list as this could provide a suitable dip to open a position in that stock.
    8 Jul 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Now that ethanol is imbedded in virtually all gas mixtures around the country, this will have a direct effect on price, IF the trade barriers against ethanol imports are also sustained. IF the protected market status of American made corn squeezin's is also lowered at the same time that price support and other subsidies are ended...

     

    We might actually see a net drop in cost, particularly at the wholesale level, AFTER the structure for imports can be regularized.

     

    Brazil has been foaming at the mouth recently about currency wars (focused heavily on the weak dollar), and allowing them to export tankers full of ethanol to the US would go a long way toward defusing that problem (but not all the way, this would be more than symbolic, but less than a full measure).
    8 Jul 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My biggest concern is the effect on AGNC if Frannie goes bankrupt.

     

    Will that end the backing they have?
    8 Jul 2011, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Greetings queen dragon. Fannie (FNMA) already went bankrupt. They have been in receivership for quite some time. I bought them shortly thereafter under the mistaken idea they had no where to go but up. They have traded essentially side ways ever since. LOL.
    8 Jul 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As far as corn is concerned, should help pig/cattle producers as well as Corn Flakes and Mexican products.
    8 Jul 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Trip's note on Ethanol being included in all gasoline blends reminded me of an article I saw a few days ago. I don't think those refineries can change their blend overnight… So if there is a shortage of something like Corn that makes Ethanol, what happens to the price of gasoline?

     

    Re Freya's note on Corn, what happens to the price of pig/cattle feed and Corn Flakes and Food in general?

     

    Why bring up the issue of a potential Corn shortage?
    Read On, MacDuff….

     

    ================
    (July 6, 2011) NOAA Warns Of Widespread Upcoming Flooding, Cautions 2011 Could Rival Great Flood Of 1993 From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden

     

    Despite last week's surprising announcement by the USDA that there has been much more expansive planting of corn, and other crops, than expected, which in turn set the price of corn tumbling by the most in years, one thing the USDA did not specify is whether said plantings are currently underwater.

     

    And if not now, how about in a week or two. Because according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the floods America has experienced so far are nothing compared to what may be coming. "Many rivers in the upper Midwest and northern Plains remain above flood stage, and the threat for more flooding will continue through the summer, forecasters at NOAA’s National Weather Service said today.

     

    With rivers running high and soils completely saturated, just a small amount of rain could trigger more flooding, including areas that have already seen major to record flooding. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal rain in most of these vulnerable areas in the next two weeks, and above-normal rainfall in much of the region in the one- and three-month outlooks.

     

    Adding to the flood threat will be the rising temperatures over the Rockies, which will release the water from the remaining snowpack. “The sponge is fully saturated – there is nowhere for any additional water to go,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood threat continuing through summer. Forecasters say this season could rival the Great Flood of 1993, when the upper Midwest endured persistent, record-breaking floods from April through August, impacting nine states and causing more than $25 billion in damages (adjusted for inflation)."

     

    If indeed this occurs, look for corn, and other softs, to surge to few all time highs, just in time for the much anticipated collapse in food prices to never happen.

     

    The NOAA qualifies the highest flood risk areas as follows:

     

    * North Central U.S. including Souris River (North Dakota) and Red River of the North (border of North Dakota and Minnesota), Minnesota River (Minnesota), Upper Mississippi River (Minnesota and Iowa), and Des Moines River (Iowa)

     

    * Lower Missouri River from Gavin’s Point (Nebraska and South Dakota border) downstream along the border of Nebraska and Iowa, continuing through the borders of Kansas and Missouri then through Missouri to the Mississippi River

     

    * Tributaries to the Lower Missouri including the James and Big Sioux Rivers in North Dakota

     

    * Lower Ohio River Valley including the White, Wabash and lower Ohio River

     

    * East of Rockies: North Platte River in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska and Yellowstone River in Wyoming and Montana

     

    * West of Rockies: Utah and Colorado

     

    In other words, virtually all. Expect to see a corn upgrade from Goldman as soon as the firm has completed accumulating its own warehouses tinyurl.com/3pgroa8
    ==========
    Is there an optimal play on Corn to take advantage of potential shortages? How risky is it?
    8 Jul 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Reinforcing the tortilla curtain?
    8 Jul 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Greetings. Excellent stuff. Thanks. I'm outta here for the week end. Have a great week end all.
    8 Jul 2011, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Added TAMO and NOURF today.
    8 Jul 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Also added TAMO. Still looking at NOURF.
    8 Jul 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Prepare for a Sell-Off When the Debt Deal Is Struck
    From: Seeking Alpha by Adam Stauffer
    tinyurl.com/669jq2d

     

    The article suggests an immediate market sell-off will occur when the deal is struck. I disagree. I think there will be an immediate pop after the deal is announced followed by a retracement and perhaps a decline. I think the pop will occur because a deal takes US default risk off the table near term and that positive news will be pumped by the talking heads.

     

    However, the pop should be temporary because raising the debt ceiling allows the government to borrow yet more money. So after the initial euphoria fades, I see the markets retracing as the can is kicked down the road another time and our worthless leaders congratulate themselves for yet another short-sighted response to a significant long term problem. Quick money would likely short the pop.

     

    If a debt ceiling deal is NOT made by the artificial deadline set by The Geithner, and a default was declared, that would lead to a crash. I don't think even our totally incompetent and corrupt leadership would allow that to happen …. Unless - unless they could convincingly point the finger at the other party as the reason for the crash. Would members of a political party deliberately crash the US markets in order to make political in-roads… tinyurl.com/ydxjx4x
    10 Jul 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    IMHO. They will find a compremise as the other result and the consequences are way too strong, However i can see them taking this to the BITTER end..

     

    Now as far as a pop goes who really knows whats in store for us. I was of the opinion that silver was the best place to be.But if that is the case then why are we meandering around 35 bucks an ounce.

     

    My big mistake, and i wrote about this once before, was i should have sold all my silver on Good Friday when the banks were closed and they could do nothing about silver almost touching 50 bucks an ounce.

     

    They came back and made sure that would never happen again. WHY??? As it is causing me to think about selling all of it and maybe move some of it into gold. Lets face it the entire world still wants American money imho. If that is the case explain why i should be holding silver???

     

    Appreciate thoughts on this sunny NY day....
    10 Jul 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    (July 10, 2011) Chinese Exports Surge To Record, As Trade Surplus Comes At Almost Double The Consensus: More Bad News For US GDP? From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden

     

    In June, the Chinese trade balance soared to $22.3 billion, nearly double the consensus of $14.2 billion.

     

    The surge in Chinese exports to the US in June to a near record $19.1 billion (lower than just the $19.4 billion in July 2010), means that the official read of the US trade deficit which will be reported on Tuesday, will almost certainly spike, pushing GDP expectations lower yet again.

     

    This is precisely the last news China needed as the surge in new money entering the economy will merely hasten an already overheating economy, and following yesterday's announcement of June CPI coming in at 6.4%, it likely means that the PBoC's statement that inflation is now under control is full of hot air. It also likely means many more attempts at tightening are imminent: expect another RRR hike within a few weeks. Per Bloomberg: "The surplus adds to the cash flooding the economy and complicates Premier Wen Jiabao’s efforts to cool the fastest inflation in three years. tinyurl.com/5tq5tro
    10 Jul 2011, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Its noteworthy that along with the news that China is filling warehouses (on credit) around the US and the world, they have simultaneously chopped their imports by a massive amount.

     

    This would imply a coming slowdown in production and exports, since most of their imports are commodities destined to become products produced for export.

     

    So we may be looking at a powerful inflection point. Watch the markets of the commodity exporting countries (Australia, Canada, Brazil, plus oil) who are dependent on a steep upward trend in Chinese purchases...

     

    China is close to pinching off some of the runaway growth engendered by their provincial governments' mad building spree, and it appears timed to coincide with our own departure from quantitative easing plus the european plan to jack up interest rates.

     

    Yowza.
    11 Jul 2011, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Energy Storage, another angle.
    11 Jul 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic website I discovered this weekend while stumbling around the I-net, in an attempt to help JL. This website tracks scads of indicators in 231 countries, for free. A little taxing on my aging PC's CPU, though:

     

    www.tradingeconomics.com/

     

    Enjoy!
    11 Jul 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Nice data source Maya... Thanks!
    A lot of work involved with keeping that updated on most of the countries in the world.
    11 Jul 2011, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1744) | Send Message
     
    Superb! And, from a cursory, once-over, it doesn't merely rely on government stats, either, but appears to build an average from different sources.
    11 Jul 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    FPA, Joseph: I was in there for about 30 or 40 minutes this weekend; like a bee that had bumbled into an endless trove of pollenating flowers.
    11 Jul 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    I have put in a purchase of PSEC at 9.50 Cents... Any opinions if i am being too aggressive??

     

    ACEHART
    11 Jul 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Ace: Greetings. (PSEC) seems like a decent value play with a high yield paid monthly.
    11 Jul 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I like the program guy for PSEC, Ace. I'm long PSEC, have been for a good while, and I will be accumulating in the $9.xx range myself.
    11 Jul 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Me too on (PSEC)

     

    Took much needed profits on (FAZ) and (SDS).

     

    Watching (INTC) for a buy at 20... probably not likely going to happen.
    11 Jul 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Is there more room to up the ante on Southern Union (SUG)? Your guess seems as good as any. I'm continuing to hold on to my remaining SUG to see what comes out of the wash. www.marketwatch.com/st...
    11 Jul 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    shorted the market on Friday, just picked up a small profit to start the week... Sold SDS...Didn't want to carry it into tomorrow as i have a feeling we may see a bounce.

     

    ACEHART
    11 Jul 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    URGENT

     

    CNBC has a vp from ALCOA after the bell and i have good info that a major announcement might be made , or it will be withheld. So you guys might want to put you toesin on it.

     

    I promised my souce i will not say what it is
    11 Jul 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't seem to be a lot of action in AA. Mixed earnings results... Did you get to hear what you were waiting for or is it still waiting in the wings?
    11 Jul 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    mix up in communication. iT WAS THE bOEING INFO ALREADY OUT. I was told itwas suppose to bea 1 trillion dollar deal. Needless to say i was annoyed!!! I alredy sold all the shares once i found out wires were crossed. My informant was in Aruba all week to boot so he didn;t hear anything !!! My bad guys...Learn to keep my mouth shut but you guys have been so good helping me i wanted to retun the favor
    12 Jul 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Macro news is trumping just about everything this afternoon.

     

    Fear and loathing in Europe, except now they are (incredibly belatedly) noticing that some of their major banks are showing signs of problems...

     

    LOL, this is surreal!

     

    Anyway, the contagion thesis appears to have gained a lot of ground today.

     

    Bank runs start from this sort of thing, no doubt...
    11 Jul 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    HP. My geeky bro-in-law already has one of their new tablets. Because he's quite successful at selling geeky stuff, Hewlett Packard provided him with one a couple weeks ago. Says it blows away the I-Pad in multi-function capability.

     

    Coming to your nearest dealer, soon.

     

    Also, my bro-in-law's, bro works for HP. Ergo, double compounded quasi-inside stuff.

     

    Think release date is August 4. Not sure. I forgot! Darn! Will update. Additionally, amazingly, I learned this evening that a professionally produced YouTube video is forthcoming from my talented, 4 octive voiced niece, about the features and benefits of the I-Pad versus the HP Pad.

     

    In hopes of adoption....

     

    ####

     

    Sorry DM, my niece is going to single handedly destroy Apple ;-)
    12 Jul 2011, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    That's gonna be an uphill battle, but I wish her (moderate) success, Maya.

     

    The thing is the reviews of WebOS are great. Folks really love the software. It's the hardware that is taking all the knocks, with some reviews calling it boxy and cheap feeling or even a "plastic cutting board". Ouch.

     

    The wi-fi Touch is out already, so you must be talking about the 3g.

     

    I think that HP would rather have a great OS and need to tweak the hardware design than the other way around, so it sounds like they may be ready to make some noise. But it is a hard arena to do battle in. Apple has such a huge head start, it will be difficult to attract too many new users unless they are way better or way cheaper. Should be fun to watch. And this whole tablet market is going to be huge. The top two or three companies could easily justify rolling out upgrades and revisions. It will be all the many also-rans who will be in trouble. Many companies will find a lot of R&D dollars are not returned in sales. HP does not sound like it will be one of the losers, though.
    12 Jul 2011, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    According to Bloomberg, in the last week the ratio of insider selling to buying on the S&P was 3,700!
    12 Jul 2011, 04:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure which was crazier this morning (so far), the futures, or how this website was behaving premarket.

     

    ####

     

    Maybe someone already posted this elsewhere, but for those TAMO fans, here's an 18 page PDF, dated July 1:

     

    www.investrend.com/TAM...

     

    Amnazing read. New technology and discovery of higher bitumen pressures and lower viscosity, potentially makes for much lower production costs; may allow price to gush up 400% by autumn. And that's on only 4 of over 50 properties!
    12 Jul 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    TAMO is on a dip today, I will be adding below $.28...
    12 Jul 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Incredible read, eh?

     

    I already put in an order for .28.
    12 Jul 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all: Put in a program earlier for (TAMO) @ $0.28 as well.
    12 Jul 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, my TAMO program only small partial fill for $.28, I may have to follow Maya's lead to $.29, holding at $.28 for the time being...

     

    I'm thinking we see $.31 by the end of the day, guys.
    12 Jul 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Mine is all or none so off course I got none. LOL.
    12 Jul 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Just sold BCON on the 8.22% (predictable) pop. Maybe a little early, but it's nice to pocket a few clams.
    12 Jul 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/curre...

     

    Pump fake or a sneak preview?

     

    As I mentioned a few weeks back, ignore the Greek magik show, and keep watching what the left had is doing with the Italian bond markets...

     

    This is the 2nd "tell".

     

    Third time is likely to be the "charm".

     

    I am reducing market exposure NOW.
    12 Jul 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Took profits on AGNC, AMJ and CPST.

     

    Added GWMGF, PSEC, TAMO and SNDXF.
    12 Jul 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    (OOIL) shares up 24% since purchasing.

     

    Sold off my Cappy shares yesterday for an average net loss of two cents per. Feel like I escaped prison! Will be reacquiring at a lower point.

     

    TAMO order still in (upped bid to .29) limbo since 10:59 this morning.

     

    Movers are gone. Time to vacuum up the dead stink bugs!
    12 Jul 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    S&P bounced on its 50 day MA... Probably due to what was said by some of the Fed members.
    12 Jul 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Virtually EVERYBODY had something they liked/disliked in that crazy communique from the Fed. Those minutes read like one of the debt ceiling confrontations with Boehner and Pelossi.

     

    One side is looking to do QE3, the other side wants an exit strategy with actual rules, interest rate hikes, and a PLAN!

     

    Is a schizoid Fed with bipolar symptoms a good thing?
    12 Jul 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I'm inclined to doubt that any FED is good FED. LOL. Even the talking heads on CNBC are getting a clue.
    www.cnbc.com/id/434291...
    12 Jul 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Bought gold (EGO) and a small amount of (FAZ). Rest is in cash, ready to pounce.

     

    Has anyone heard from Guns?
    12 Jul 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    (TAMO) Does anyone know how to open this crap up? Found another report from Swiss-based, Simm Research that has a $2.80 price target. Here's the (partial) link:

     

    www.sism.com/researchr...

     

    I read the report on QuoteMedia, but QuoteMedia doesn't allow me to cut and paste. Basically, the report highlighted what was written in the above PDF report I linked earlier today. However, it's good to read another confirming source.

     

    I'm thinking of quadrupling my shares owned. If I do, I will sell half in the $.60 to $.80 range and then let this bugger run. May take a year to accomplish this goal, unless that "sweet spot" Cougar Oil and Gas is drilling right now, under the auspices of TAMO, really becomes a major sweet spot.
    12 Jul 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I have an order in for more TAMO at .29 ...
    12 Jul 2011, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Adding TAMO at Market, minimum order, to see what happens.
    12 Jul 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Executed immediately at $.30.
    12 Jul 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Going in and changing...
    12 Jul 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    mutter... grumble.... it won't even execute at .31.... stinking....
    12 Jul 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    My order got rejected! Can't figure out why. Plenty of cash to cover. I don't think there's any big rush to buy this one, unless one of the big boyz tracking us gets after it. Afterall, this report's been out for over a week, as has the Simm Research stuff.

     

    Let's keep TAMO-speak here in the Compass, not in QC.

     

    Agreed?
    12 Jul 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Added TAMO at $.30.

     

    Hurry robert, I think this one is headed to $.31...
    12 Jul 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, hurry Rattie...
    12 Jul 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    No joy at .31. I guess no one wanted to sell... will try again tomorrow.
    12 Jul 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I was trading in my Schwab account. I have found that they are very good for Canadian trades.

     

    Maya: Agreed.
    12 Jul 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Better yet, folks, maybe we should use my Oil Sands Insta I wrote two years ago. There was some mentionings of other companies like Cougar I want to know more about:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    If we get over 75 comments or so, I'll do a Part Deux.
    12 Jul 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Shorted the market again, personally i really think it is easy the way the markets around the world are acting.

     

    ACEHART
    12 Jul 2011, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    You are braver than me!
    12 Jul 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea anymore if I should post to The Compass or to the QuickChat… or what goes where… and why.

     

    Apologies for length… but thought I owe the group some sharing on my trading status as this is a community of sharing. And, I have some energy after mistakenly drinking a bunch of coffee to compensate for a quantity of alcohol that was expected but only 50% delivered on our 2nd to last night in Czech Republic (and my liver is grateful).

     

    Many trades of mine have not been noted of late because:
    a) I’m busy traveling; and visiting with folks
    b) I’m not trading for the right reasons right now - as I need to raise cash for a collision of reasons… and posting sales on things I would sooner hold all things being equal is not helpful...

     

    6 stocks I am trying to find an excuse to add to at these prices despite a need to build (not use) my cash position:
    - SDRL… John Fredriksen play… part of my portfolio that’s starting to follow Mercy Jimenez…
    - BNKPF… Joseph Shafer’s European gas play… a play that sounds even better after a couple of recent conversations with folks here in Czech Republic about the future of the EU… and particularly, their opinions about Germany…
    - TAMO… Maya’s oil sands play…
    - MERC and FBKZF… Harris Kupperman’s plays on the paper pulp used to make toilet paper (Mr. Kupperman is also CEO of MNGGF)
    - ANMCF (trying to buy more at 43 cents and lower… but keep in mind Humala takes office July 28 and this is a Peru gold play… ANMCF is an idea I have via Bill Fleckenstein… and the CEO of ANMCF sits on the board of MNGGF… as does Fleck…)

     

    3 stocks I’m waiting for an inflection point move on, but have a full position that won’t allow me to add more unless there’s a serious downtick in price along with an uptick in my conviction:
    - NTU.AX (NOURF in the US)… a favorite rare earth stock of Chihawk and Tripleblack that’s expecting drilling results in less than a month…
    - IAALF… Tripleblack’s beryllium play that looks very good to me…
    - CALVF… a stock I wrote about a lot before… entered on my own a couple of years ago… added to significantly based on finding two information streams on it this spring… RagingBull’s message board and John Polomny’s newsletter…

     

    Got stopped out of DF (dairy producer Dean Foods) today. I think Gov’t Sachs has a $19 price target on it, and David Tepper is long it. I stopped out with about a 65% gain, but obviously smarter minds believe it has room to run.

     

    Almost everyone I follow – including the folks here - believes markets are headed lower near-term. I can’t quite figure out why my instincts are running counter to everyone I normally agree with… if I just think they’re too early… or if I just have too many scars from sudden announcements by Greenspan/Bernanke that they’re flooding the markets with more liquidity. I “get” that most people I follow believe Bernanke and other Central Bank powers will let things slide a good bit more before intervening, but I feel like the next real opportunity on the short side is when the Central Bank interventions don’t work, and I don’t think that is this time.
    12 Jul 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I love the Toilet paper play... we will be needing quite a bit of that in the near future... I like the look of BNKPF too... thanks Jon!
    12 Jul 2011, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Well...Coney Island needs lots of toilet paper!

     

    Jon: Thanks for taking time during your wondrous journey to check in with some great ideas.

     

    I'm still of the opinion we will have a pullback, but we'll end the year up 10 to 15% from where we are today. The media will continue to spin the negative as much as possible; bad news equals higher ratings. Even Dr. Doom has said the crap won't hit the Benanke's whirlybird until 2013.
    12 Jul 2011, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Operation successful, walking very difficult

     

    Power outages all over the place, even lost the ATT land line and my DSL connection.

     

    I, too, am out of AGNC at $29.74. NLY did another common offer, I expect same from AGNC possibly bigger than previous one.
    13 Jul 2011, 05:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Take care and heal fast, Freya.

     

    I view the share offers from companies like these differently. Since they distribute virtually all of their net earnings to shareholders, one of the few ways they can grow involve regular stock offers. In a way, its good news, when the company has good prospects for investing that money to grow.

     

    I'm long NLY.
    13 Jul 2011, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    One step at a time Freya... Keep taking those steps :)
    13 Jul 2011, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    The Frank-Dodd end date of 7/15 is fast approaching. Any ideas how this will impact the pm markets short term?
    www.zerohedge.com/arti...

     

    Freya, I wish you a speedy recovery.

     

    I have been in contact with DG. He is very busy and on the goooh!
    13 Jul 2011, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19531) | Send Message
     
    Freya,

     

    Glad to hear the operation went well.

     

    I must've missed something - I had no idea you were going for one.

     

    I don't know if I forgot or SA's failure to flag all new comments bit me!

     

    Anyway, glad you're on the mend!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jul 2011, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Greetings. Glad to hear of your success. Keep up with your small steps but don't over do it. No tennis for awhile. LOL. Oy, Gee; Greetings. Thanks for the update. Things are starting to accelerate on the political front.
    13 Jul 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    QE3 IS BACK !!!! according to Ben. Time for more gold and silver

     

    ACEHART
    13 Jul 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Seems I'm getting mail and comments mixed.

     

    3 years ago I had stents both legs, since then the stents have narrowed somewhat and the legs from toe to knee have been swollen for months until I finally couldn't take it anymore.

     

    Added another stent to one leg and did an Angio on both.

     

    I now hurt from toe to hip. Vast Improvement :)
    13 Jul 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19531) | Send Message
     
    I do remember the stents from way back. Thanks for clearing up the recent.

     

    Let's hope this is the last round of free hospital food - after all we do want you healthy! ;-))

     

    Maybe given time it won't hurt much at all? Let's hope so.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jul 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Bid on (TAMO) at .31 ... again.
    13 Jul 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    All dry powder in that account exhausted yesterday... Added TAMO like mad. Overweight in that stock.

     

    Even so, I may initiate a second TAMO position in long term account today, though...
    13 Jul 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I did a triple down 90-day GTC @ .28 this morning. Half way between the Simple Moving Average and the lower Bollinger Band. Not rejected this time around. Hoping Cougar claws down into a high pressure situation, scalding hot, to discover bitumen viscous as sewing machine oil.

     

    ####

     

    Freya: So glad your operation went well!

     

    ####

     

    This autumn has potential. Axion recieves the DOE grant. Novavax gets the BARDA award, and TAMO goes Jed Clampett.

     

    ####

     

    One thing I love about soccer; no commercials! USA 1, France 1, approaching midway through the second period.
    13 Jul 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19531) | Send Message
     
    NVAX got the award - and it was funded, IIRC. The deal is they have to do the billing, as they complete milestones, to get paid and then satisfactorily complete other milestones to get the second tranche.

     

    That's why we had the big pop to $3.50 back on 3/1.

     

    This could be at risk only from budget cuts. But with a national concern about bio-terrorism and concern for building stocks of rapidly deployable vaccines and sera, a cut in this area should be minimal.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Jul 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13541) | Send Message
     
    Gold and oil up. Gee what could it be? QE III, Bernanke, more unmitigated government debt? How about all of the above.
    13 Jul 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19531) | Send Message
     
    Can't be: the Bernanke iterated that increasing demand from 3rd-world emerging ... not "The Fed's" fault at all. It's "transitory.

     

    Well, he's right about that part: it "transits" from his computers, around the world and into our pocketbooks which get inexorably, inexplicably lighter and lighter as the burden of basic stuff cost gets heavier and heavier.

     

    As they lay us in the ground, in a pauper's grave, he'll be proven right - it was, over the very long-haul, transitory as are all things. Including life.

     

    What a disconnected doofus.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jul 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Moody's Places U.S. Aaa Rating on Review for Downgrade From: StockInsider.com
    Stock futures dove after the close Wednesday as Moody's took the next step in its review of the United States’ coveted Aaa rating, placing its rating on review for a possible downgrade.


     

    Moody's cited risk the debt limit will not be raised on a timely basis, leading to a default on US Treasury debt obligations.



     

    Financial institutions directly linked to the US government including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks, and the Federal Farm Credit Banks are also on review for possible downgrade.


     

    "An actual default, regardless of duration, would fundamentally alter Moody's assessment of the timeliness of future payments, and a Aaa rating would likely no longer be appropriate".

     

    "However, because this type of default is expected to be short-lived, and the expected loss to holders of Treasury bonds would be minimal or non-existent, the rating would most likely be downgraded to somewhere in the Aa range."

Moody's said there is still hope for the U.S., saying if the debt limit is raised again and a default avoided, the Aaa rating would likely be confirmed. tinyurl.com/5tvonyo

     

    -----------------
    My guess is that once it's gone, it's gone... they we can enjoy paying the resultant higher interest rates which will follow...
    13 Jul 2011, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile...
    --------------------
    The Petulant Teleprompter: Obama "Abruptly" Walks Out Of Debt Negotiations From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden

     

    OBAMA: "THIS MAY BRING MY PRESIDENCY DOWN BUT I WILL NOT YIELD ON THIS" --

     

    Reuters reports that President Barack Obama abruptly ended a tense budget meeting on Wednesday with Republican leaders by walking out of the room, a Republican aide familiar with the talks said. The aide said the session, the fourth in a row, was the most tense of the week as House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, dismissed spending cuts offered by the White House as "gimmicks and accounting tricks." Either Congress has become the best-orchestrated reality TV show in history or, and this is a big or, the market should really consider panicking soon. tinyurl.com/6jbhe6x
    13 Jul 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile, Obama is playing high stakes poker. He walked out on Eric Cantor and the Republicans!
    news.yahoo.com/ap-sour...
    13 Jul 2011, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Obama's presidency has already been brought down and he has only the guy in the mirror to blame for that. It is no longer a question of if Obama loses in 2012, it is now a question of who will be our new President? He had his chance and failed. The US simply cannot afford to have him in the White House four more years.
    13 Jul 2011, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Voldemort running away is how I see it. I suspect his own side was wavering, and he did that to give them time to regroup.

     

    Rat has a comment and link below which hints that we may hear some news soon...

     

    I have always believed that a deal would be struck, prior to any default (technical or otherwise) and one that can best be characterized as kicking the can down the street so that all parties can live to fight another day. Oh, there WILL be windowdressing, extraneous items both sides can point to and claim as victories, but we should not be distracted by these minor changes.
    14 Jul 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Greetings. It has become abundantly clear that Moody's has sided with the Democrats. What creditor or rating agency would suggest that a overextended client would be downgraded unless they borrow more money? IIRC the ratings agencies collectively said that unless a viable spending reduction plan was put in place a downgrade was inevitable. We haven't been hearing that lately. Where did that vanish to?
    14 Jul 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I see two issues. One concerns credit worthiness, the other concerns not paying what is due by the due date.

     

    Not paying what is due by the due date is an automatic default. No decision - no politics. So they issued a warning making it absolutely clear about the consequences of missing a payment on the due date. Fooling around with the due date, or payment terms is grounds for an automatic default. That same message has been conveyed to the EU. They must not change the payment terms of existing obligations. So the rating agencies are very strict with respect to payment terms of existing obligations.

     

    The other issue concerns the wisdom of providing triple A credit worthiness ratings to countries that consistently borrow more money then they earn. That same problem exists in Europe and the US. The Europeans can't print money, so they have to cut costs or declare haircuts. The US prints money, and in the process of doing that, they effectively devalue their currency. So 10 year debt is paid off with grossly devalued dollars. That is just a haircut by another name.

     

    So why haven't the credit rating agencies blown the whistle earlier with respect to credit worthiness? Why would it be in the rating agencies financial interest to not downgrade the credit worthiness of a country or something like home mortgage securities? There is a decision making mechanism at work here, but what is it?
    14 Jul 2011, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    You people really don't think we are going to default do you? This is all a bunch BS and there will be no default. Let's get this done and stop with the theatrics. Geez, the 2012 Presidential election can't come fast enough for me.
    14 Jul 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I think that the FED's game plan in cahoots with Moody's is to reduce the value of the dollar so that the value of debts owed to foreign countries like Japan and China dwindle in terms of real value--whatever slippery gauge that is.

     

    Dollar down 35%? Suddenly, a trillion owed is now 35% cheaper to pay off.

     

    They also believe that things made in the US become cheaper in the eyes of foreign buyers, helping trade deficit, which "supposedly" helps in job creation, as in Government Motors, and tourism.

     

    What the game plan does, though, is screw its own citizens, by making everything citizens own be worth less in value. And for each "gainfully" employed citizen, their paycheck now can purchase less and less and less. The retired are screwed the most.

     

    That's my two cents (now almost worth one, inside of just two years!) of the decision mechanism at work.

     

    ####

     

    An aside to this is I would love to see what percentage of foreign owned homes exist in hyper-stressed real estate markets like South Florida and Vegas, as compared to five years ago.
    14 Jul 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    (July 13, 2011) Moody’s Will Cut 7,000 Top-Rated Munis If U.S. Downgraded, Reviewing More From: Bloomberg, By James Nash

     

    At least 7,000 top-rated municipal credits would have their ratings cut if the U.S. government loses its Aaa grade, Moody’s Investors Service said.

     

    An “automatic” downgrade affecting $130 billion in municipal debt directly linked to the U.S. would occur if the federal level is reduced, Moody’s said yesterday in a report. Additionally, top-rated securities with no direct links to the national government will be reviewed for similar action. tinyurl.com/6b6r8fw
    -----------------
    This would of course increase the cost of borrowing money and would increase pressure on already, stretched budgets. How many Munis would be forced into bankruptcy?

     

    I see the next meeting on the debt ceiling is scheduled 15 minutes after the market closes today.... A deal would likely be announced after the markets close... So is the meeting time a 'tell'?

     

    What are the probabilities here? It seems more likely that some kind of deal will be cut then no deal... the markets should pop on that...

     

    14 Jul 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    President Obama is in a tough spot. Closing tax loopholes, eliminating tax breaks and subsidies is likely the only revenue increases he will get from the House. If a deal is reached it likely won't be until late tomorrow as the news cycle closes up for the week end. That has usually been the case in the past. While it's not as effective now as it once was due to the 24/7 news cycle brought into existence by cable TV and the internet it is still effectively a buffer for the market and politicians who would rather not have a spotlight on them.
    14 Jul 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    After trading at a discount for a little while, CEF (half-gold half-silver holding closed end fund) is back on the premium side by 3.65% hairs. Over 5 years, its average premium is 8.38% according to below chart.

     

    Handy premium/discount chart at unrelated Closed End Fund connect website run by Nuveen. Scroll down page to "price history" tab for the baby blue premium/discount chart:
    www.cefconnect.com/Det...

     

    Disclosure: CEF is about 25% of my investment holdings, as unlike Mr. Bernanke, I have concluded holding precious metals is not only like holding currency, but that it is the best currency to own currently.
    15 Jul 2011, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have yet to figure out why a person has to make a comment which serves No purpose unless all they want is to be noticed.

     

    Apparantly 4Real has No Idea how to embrace Theoretical Ideas by giving rational opinions and has abdicated his role of being passive and has again resorted to being abrasive.

     

    I knew it wouldn't last, kids have a tendency to throw tantrums when they are ignored.
    15 Jul 2011, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Freya,

     

    That is simply not fair. I am showing some frustration with the mess we're in getting messier but accusing me of tantrums and saying you "knew it wouldn't last" is completely unfair, so much so that I think you've been waiting for any comment by me that you could jump on. I heard you had class, but after your latest post, I have to wonder. Am I not entitled to an opinion now? Am I not permitted to show a little frustration at what our inept President is doing or not doing, as the case may be? I am not attacking any member of the forum but merely expressing my disappointment and frustration regarding a President, whom I voted for by the way, who is ruining this country and the future of our kids because he simply doesn't know what he is doing. I go out and vote and have every right to express my opinion about the President, even moreso one which I voted for so please, give it a rest Freya and stop trying to cause trouble where there is none.
    15 Jul 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Since when can I possibly consider this statement of yours as being anything but abrasive:

     

    "You people really don't think we are going to default do you? This is all a bunch BS and there will be no default. Let's get this done and stop with the theatrics. Geez, the 2012 Presidential election can't come fast enough for me. 14 Jul, 03:48 PM ! Report Abuse1"

     

    My asking people to give opinions on the theoretical aspects of a potential Default is "BS" to you.

     

    Didn't you read the Instablog query?

     

    Why are you here if you don't understand the premise and have no desire to contibute to same?
    15 Jul 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Freya,

     

    Do you honestly believe our government is going to default and not get this done? I was only expressing my frustration with the situation and you took it in a context that served you best in attacking me. I repeat, i have not directed any criticism or negativity toward anyone in here and resent you saying "I knew it wouldn't last" and referring to me as a child throwing a tantrum. You had no basis for such a statement... you were wrong period. Rather than appease you by proceeding any further with this argument, i choose to go forward silent about about but you were wrong, plain and simple.
    15 Jul 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I repeat: Read the Insta.

     

    If you consider my question to be ridiculous and have nothing to contribute. Stay out of the Insta.

     

    You Called it "BS".

     

    But it wasn't directed at me? Of Course, it was.

     

    What will happen isn't the Point. The Point Is to examine what would happen if a Default occurred.

     

    Your statement Was childish and continues to be so as you try to explain it away.
    15 Jul 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    FREYA you know i respect you...

     

    I could take the safe road and SAY nothing but i honestly believe when 4 real said BS it wasn;t directed at you. How can you possibly believe he would want to hurt you. People make mistakes in life but the bigger mistake is not being forgiven.

     

    I know the poor guy has been born with a heart ailment and not once has he brought it up. So please cut him some slack folks as i know he as i am trying our hardest to live withhin the rules.

     

    ACEHART
    16 Jul 2011, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Schizo market this morning... bad news coupled with a light POMO that ends at 11am.
    15 Jul 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I've been monitoring the ASX (Australian Exchange, Sydney) religiously for about a year now, primarily because of the REE plays (like Lynas) there...

     

    I believe I am seeing a pattern where they reverse course JUST ahead of the American markets (Lynas was down a good bit last night despite what was actually good news). The ASX 100 (again, Lynas is a component) is something I believe may be a fairly reliable tripwire.

     

    When, occasionally, the roles reverse (pink sheet listings for major Australian firms start showing clear signs of the lesser American market volume "leading" the ASX) it indicates a trend which often extends for quite a while.
    15 Jul 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    IF we were going to truly see a settlement to the debt ceiling matter, I'm thinking we will see an up day down under the night before.
    15 Jul 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19531) | Send Message
     
    LoL! So now we are part of the PIIGSrU.S. world global economic risk scenario!

     

    I knew it would come to this!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jul 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I have been trying to understand this. Here is a good review article. Of particular interest was the part where, if the debt was downgraded, suddenly it would not be permitted in many pension plans, which are strictly drafted for triple A credit. Therefore, a huge sell-off would ensue just because the downgrade of rating on the debt occurred, and it would impact municipal and private pension plans alike.
    blogs.forbes.com/kenra.../

     

    According to this article, the ratings agencies have been warning about downgrades since 2009 ( including various European countries).
    15 Jul 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and those munis, plans and funds would take huge hits as the values plummeted (the market could not absorb the sudden deluge in an orderly manner).

     

    This is an underlying truth supporting the idea that a default will not be allowed. This is a game of juvenile chicken where both parties know EXACTLY where the limits are, and where they will have to give up the centerline.
    15 Jul 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    An absolute must read, including the Bloomberg link (don't miss that).

     

    Scary.
    15 Jul 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking that the final suasion used to bring forth a deal prior to August/armageddon will be things like the fragility of the EU and China's crazy real estate bubble. Those nasty events could transform this "domestic squabble" over the family's finances into a trigger to blow up the planet.

     

    This is a crisis with loads of explosive in the shellcasing, but lacking a fuse, but wait... Here's an inane side issue that we can use to supply that lack.
    15 Jul 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Dollar is tanking while Voldemort talks...

     

    Appropriate.

     

    Market is interpreting this as a near deal on the debt ceiling crisis (more ginned up gyp of a crisis I've seen in recent years)...

     

    Two failed mass reading comprehension tests in as many days...

     

    Sad.
    15 Jul 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Since I was asked..... no, no, let me rephrase that, since I was challenged to display my picks in the market rather than bashing everyone else's, I have done so and would like to point out that those very picks which I listed less than two weeks ago are up nearly 10% in that very short period of time. While I realize it is impossible to sustain such success all the time, my point is and has always been that there are sensible investments to be made in the market for both long term and short, while sitting on the same 1, 2 or 3 stocks which have little or no promise is probably not the best way to use your investment dollars.

     

    In comparison to my 10% increase in the portfolio of mostly PM and mining stocks, the "favored' choices in these forums (APXW, CPST and XIDE) in that same time period are collectively down roughly 4% with APXW being up barely and the others two down.

     

    Since I was accused of offering nothing to the forum and challenged to offer my picks I thought I would just give this progress report and for those who may have missed my choices I would love to share them once again in case some of you out there would like to have a better chance making money... oh and on a side note... as of this writing, all of the following stocks on my list are up today...
    SLW, NAK, AUY and SIRI. The fifth I may not have had on the original list but is included now is BRD.

     

    Without having to list my picks every ten days to show my contribution to the group, I would like to say in general terms that I believe PMs and mining stocks are a good place to be right now and will yield positive results in both the long and short term. I have always favored silver but recently have learned to widen my interest in PMs to include ETFs and mining stocks that represent other metals such as gold and palladium to name two.

     

    While I've made my point quickly and clearly in the short term I will be happy to list my picks once in a while so as to prove that those picks are good not only short term but long term as well.

     

    In the past I may have chosen the wrong approach in expressing my opinion on certain stocks and I am clearly taking a new approach. Now, I simply say look at the numbers and let common sense tell you where your money will make money. Good Luck in the market to all moving forward and have a great weekend.
    15 Jul 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    4Real: Greetings. It's not necessarily what's in your portfolio that is under discussion here. What you are looking at in trends and stocks bad, good or indifferent and any research/links you have dug up are what the group looks at. We are also prone to discuss the geopolitical ramifications in various sectors and investment theses with possible out comes. You have a great weekend as well.
    15 Jul 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I was accused of simply bashing and not offering any of my picks so I have included them and reported on them. As for articles I read, there's far too many to list here. I like to read any and every article I can related to PMs and investing in general as time allows. On several occasions i have listed my thoughts on why my picks are good ones.
    I do not offer long drawn out daily explanations because it is not necessary. I prefer to let my picks do the talking for me. In here I have read literally hundreds of posts (some real long ones too) that state the writer's case over and over and over again, but in the end the stocks they often write about rarely move and when they do finally jump up a bit, it usually only takes a day or two to drop back down.

     

    At any rate, I have no problem offering links to articles I like and which support stocks I favor but that will be nothing new since I have done that several times before.

     

    Right now, one can find several articles on the internet which support PMs and mining stocks which I favor the most with one dark horse non-PM tearing it up on the rail called SIRI.

     

    Good night and have a pleasant tomorrow.
    15 Jul 2011, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    From Reuters:
    "John Chambers, the chairman of S&P's sovereign ratings committee, said "this is the time" for the two sides to tackle the country's long-term debt problems.
    "If you get a small agreement, that will lead to a downgrade," he told Reuters in an interview."

     

    news.yahoo.com/p-warns...
    15 Jul 2011, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Fair warning...

     

    And it will fall on deaf ears.

     

    The necessary leadership qualities are simply NOT in the room.
    15 Jul 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I guess i'll have to keep a tighter leash on my Instablogs.

     

    And if I can't keep the focus on what's really important, I'll try to eliminate extraneous comments.

     

    First of all, IMO, Aug.2nd will not see a resolution as both sides see this as a Conflict of Idealogies or Socialism vs Capitalism.

     

    What happens thereafter is what I wanted discussed but No, I get comments which belong in the QC Insta. even when I try to get them back on Point.
    15 Jul 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I blacklisted 4Real in my Mail because of his attitude inre derogatory words.

     

    Tell everyone it isn't so and I'll paste your words for Everyone to see.

     

    You couldn't get to me there, so now you are acting here.

     

    What part of "Theoretical" Don't you understand?
    15 Jul 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As far as your Stock Picks are concerned,

     

    How many times and in how many places do you plan to place the same Picks?

     

    And what have they to do with the Pending Default, Please point out the connection?
    15 Jul 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Freya...

     

    I didn't realize your Compass Forum now had restrictions on what can be discussed. I was told recently that in the past I only offered negative commentary and never listed my favorite investments and why I liked them. Now that i do it, you wonder why and how many times. Clearly you are annoyed that I listed five stocks which have been in the black virtually every day since i first listed them. Like many others exchanging picks and ideas I have included mine with no negativity whatsoever but for some unexplained reason you are now attacking me at every turn in much the same manner as a bully persists in picking a fight. It is pretty clear you are trying to bait me into slipping back to my old ways so you can say "see, I told you so." Well, you tried that one a few posts ago but looked kinda silly doing so.

     

    I'm really not sure why you just don't leave well enough alone, ignore me if you wish and move forward. I am in no way spreading negative commentary as promised. What I find so ironic is that you are.

     

    Give it a rest Freya as you are making yourself look vindictive, hypocritical and quite foolish. This is a forum for discussion about our present debt situation and the market after all so let's move forward with that, shall we. Good night and have a pleasant tomorrow. :-)
    15 Jul 2011, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    You must be referring to an email written before I made my promise of peace. Since my promise I have directed negativity to no one by email, in any of these forums or chats. However, I cannot say the same for you. How ironic and hypocritical, don't cha think?

     

    As for your discussion about August 2nd, in my opinion, you are wrong. There may not be a "big" deal resolution as Obama referred to it today but like any negotiating, there will some give and take which will allow for some resolve by August 2nd. However, that will not get rid of the problem so it will linger on.

     

    As poor a job that I think Obama has done overall, what he said about everyone having to pay their dues is correct. I think a lot of what Republicans want in general is good but this nonsense of letting the rich constantly get off without paying their taxes and dumping it all on the middle-class is absolute nonsense and if that plays a big role in why the Republicans won't give a little then that is not only selfish but downright wrong.

     

    I have no problem with the rich getting richer so big business can stimulate the economy with jobs, etc but when it comes to crunch time, the Republicans not willing to compromise is just wrong.

     

    With all that said, there will be some kind of resolution by August 2nd but it won't be enough to make problems and uncertainty go away.. it will only put some of the nonsense off but not too far down the line we'll be paddling the same boat and that is a shame.
    15 Jul 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    It seems that any action or inaction will result in a downgrade. We were warned that failure to institute a plan for deficit and general reduction in spending will result in a downgrade, Not raising the debt limit will result in a downgrade. Continuing to issue debt will result in a downgrade. This whole fiasco is more disjointed than the FED statement was. All of the noise about downgrades from the same group of people who rated the toxic assets at Citti (C), American International (AIG) and other institutions as investment grade when it was actually junk. Pardon me if I am skeptical of the entire process and find it difficult to believe that those agencies would actually carry out their threat. Especially since it would result in a global financial backslide affecting adversely every economy and market on the planet. Where's our BS detector? Is it on Oy, Gee's shelf next to the Troll repellant?
    15 Jul 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19531) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering if it's not part of a strategy to force one side or the other (most likely the Repubs since the admin is Dem?) to cave in by adding *additional* fear-mongering to the mix.

     

    Along the lines of "no SS checks, no military pay, ..." all of which was disclosed as a bald-faced lie ... at least to folks who read much.

     

    I wouldn't put it past the ghost of "Never Let a Good Crises Go to Waste" Rahm who certainly must be roaming the halls of the White House in various guises whispering in the ears of his erstwhile "comrades".

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jul 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    In the end it will come down to who will make a personal sacrifice in terms of their political future - public prestige - and ideological beliefs...

     

    Who, to put a point on it, will be the grown up in this tussle?

     

    I am prepared to be shocked, however.

     

    If ALL turn out to be idiot children, then there truly is no hope.

     

    If the Dem's discover their long lost classic, patriotic liberal roots, they could surprise to the upside.

     

    If the Pub's forget their Conservative, hard-boiled pragmatism, they could surprise to the downside.

     

    I still expect some nasty mixture, with plenty of blame to go around after the fact.
    15 Jul 2011, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Hi Folks

     

    I feel like i stepped into a bar fight and caught one on the chin. I apologize if i missed it but has anyone disussed the purchasing of physical metals with all this confusion going on??

     

    I have read countlessa rticles that expect comodities to skyrocket.

     

    Does anyone feel the same way as i am holding onto my physicals with a pretty hefty profit

     

    ACEHART
    15 Jul 2011, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 4real, your words addressed to me:

     

    "You must be referring to an email written before I made my promise of peace. Since my promise I have directed negativity to no one by email, in any of these forums or chats. However, I cannot say the same for you. How ironic and hypocritical, don't cha think?"

     

    So exactly how am I to put a positive spin on " hypocritical" ?
    15 Jul 2011, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » But again, I ask:

     

    What is the correlation between your "stock picks" and the Premise of this Instablog?

     

    You posted them here, Why?

     

    This is not a QC.
    15 Jul 2011, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Ohhhh I see... no stock talk in here. OK, but make sure you relay that to Robbie and Jon as well.

     

    Hypocritical is merely an adjective that accurately describes your negative behavior toward me. It is an observation not a degradation.

     

    No worries Freya, I won't interrupt your forum unless it is directly related to debt talk.

     

    Just keep one thing in mind..."people in glass houses should not throw stones." Now, you go and have yerself a mighty fine weekend, ya hear!
    15 Jul 2011, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3369) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Since this Compass is being used to draw attention to a person rather than to Address the issue presented:

     

    Please go to: seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    where I will try keep the most serious Stockmarket Potential "Black Swan" in focus.
    15 Jul 2011, 10:56 PM Reply Like
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