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Freya
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I have my name back, Still looking for a Purrfect picture. I have friends. Time to restart. SA isn't perfect but then I'm not either. But Life is far too short, and as the Roman Gladiators used to say: Eat, drink and make merry because tommorow, you may die. Why hasten your demise, don't worry,... More
  • The Compass #3 continued 92 comments
    Jul 15, 2011 10:46 PM
    The Premise is simple.

    Congress Does Not reach an agreement by Aug. 2nd.

    This affects various Gov. Agencies.

    How? And

    How will it, in turn, affect mReits like NLY and AGNC?

    Try to keep your comments on Point.
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Comments (92)
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  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1485) | Send Message
     
    Hi Freya,

     

    I'll posit the devil's advocate position.

     

    We WILL see compromise, with "no new taxes" directly on individuals, but the removal of subsidies (which I would advocate across the board, anyway) on a number of industries, the effects of which will be borne by end-users, thus effectively taxing individuals. And we'll see nibbling around the edges of social dependency programs creating the illusion of cutting spending -- but, again, doing so by, say, reducing doctor's reimbursement amounts, which they will simply have to pass along to the rest of us not in Medicare in higher fees.

     

    I believe we'll avoid technical default / the markets, led by Wall Street and lousy reporters, will rally for a day or two / and the nation will be little better off as the political class agrees to compromise, but as usual on the backs of the citizenry.
    16 Jul 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (445) | Send Message
     
    Well said Joe. If some "of the rest of us" have to pay a little more toward Medicare, at least it goes to a good cause and one which most of us will eventually use. I can understand that type of tax being put on the middle class but what really needs to happen is taxing the rich. There can be additional taxes required of the rich in moderation that would not cripple them and probably barely affect them. while raising big money. This theory that we can't tax the rich because they put so much back into the economy is for the birds. If that were truly the case, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.

     

    Sure, some big businesses effectively put tax savings back into their business and the economy but for every one of those there's probably ten others where executives are lining their pockets with 100k Christmas bonuses and other criminal acts.

     

    It's time to stop accommodating the whining rich and make them contribute to the cause. The middle class is constantly getting screwed while they are the hardest workers of all.

     

    I just hope one day we see a Presidential candidate that can mix some Republican ideas with Democratic. If we could find a Republican candidate that wasn't afraid to make the rich and big businesses do their part in taxes, we'd have our political messiah but then again if we found such a person you wouldn't call him a Republican. How about a Repumocrat?
    16 Jul 2011, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    2015 is the year (they are projecting) they won't be able to "kick the can down the road" any further.
    I'm betting the reits and other high yield dividend payers will be like 2008 again, but for different reasons. I expect price per share to drop, and dividends too, temporarily, in the weaker players. They will have to continue to pay out at high interest rates. As the share price is lowered the dividend can be reduced but still maintain the same ratio--that's what I mean.

     

    Check out Och-Ziff. It's not a reit but it is paying 7.5% on dividend.
    However, it is faaalling and has been since its IPO. DD needed.
    16 Jul 2011, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (445) | Send Message
     
    "The Premise is simple.
    Congress Does Not reach an agreement by Aug. 2nd."

     

    The premise is invalid because they will reach an agreement.
    With that I will grant Freya her wish. I will leave. This forum simply talks about hypotheticals that will not happen. Let me know when you set up a forum about Martians landing in France.
    17 Jul 2011, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Wish I could chart you, short and long you...because most times stocks retreat to the "mean." As you just have.

     

    "What?" you say. "I have pronounced my conditions upon everyone else...that I will behave...based upon my own criteria...of which I believe is invincible...as is my investing prowess...so far better than anyone who makes a comment here...other than my chosen club...whom I don't even recognize can not stand what I write.

     

    You are one trippy, control freak dude.

     

    I only wish I could be so confident in everything I am all about, as such you seem to be.

     

    Where is the medicine?
    18 Jul 2011, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting, My Negativity and Unreal's appear to have dif. definitions.

     

    So far, his comments have included: BS, Hippocrite and now the rejection of the Author's Blog because "He is not being Negative" in his commentary.

     

    Please, I didn't know you could see into the Future.

     

    You must have Failed HS if you were unable to Answer the questions on an exam Because " you disagreed with them."

     

    Please, Leave. Since you have contributed Nothing other than rude comments.
    17 Jul 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not Raising the Debt ceiling does not mean Defaults on our debt or continuing to make SS/Medicare payments.

     

    What it does do is force Government to decide which programs will continue to be funded.

     

    As far as i'm concerned, it would be the easiest way to get rid of the multiple overlapping programs currently in existence without going through a Congressional Battle.

     

    Ethanol Subsidy, poof sorry not enough money, Farm subsidies for Not growing certain crops, tough, Sugar Subsidy, give me a break, have you seen Sugar prices recently? The Unauthorized Lybian War, etc.

     

    It will force Congress to act responsibly with our money instead of trying to Buy Votes.
    17 Jul 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    IMO, if interest rates start to rise, dividends would not be secure. Corporations can't pass the $ to their investors if they are paying more for credit.
    18 Jul 2011, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » But Interest rates would Not have to rise if Interest on Debt continued to be paid as required.

     

    Every day I keep seeing BO commiting new funds to programs. As far as I can tell, he doesn't care one way or another about the Debt ceiling.

     

    Why do we maintain costly Military Bases in other countries or have given the EU a Trillion $ line of credit or fund the UN or Send money to this that and every other country Food Aid and/or Medicines?

     

    Spend it Inhouse First, take care of America First.

     

    How about practicing the Monroe Doctrine for a while.
    18 Jul 2011, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    The larger and more fortunate corps. have already re-financed at much lower rates (that's the reason for the purported huge COH) for longer terms.

     

    They may be able to use this COH to their advantage ... for a while and maintain dividends.

     

    But at some point they will start to tighten their belts and cutting dividends will be a likely early step for many.

     

    All this reminds me of a fighter who has lost his skills: the U.S. economy just keeps absorbing more and more body blows because many years ago the night at the tavern with all the bling become more important than training and sharpening skills. A natural side-effect of socialist tendencies, of course.

     

    At some point the body-blows become so damaging that the fighter collapses.

     

    Who knows how many times he staggers to his feet for one more attempt at victory though? And then the damage is often irreparable.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2011, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Interest rates are being kept artificially low. How long can that go on?
    18 Jul 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Love_ Money
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    How long we can keep raising the debt ceiling without having our rating reduced to B? Raising the debt ceiling without addressing the root cause, does warrant rating reduction, right? Will S&P and Moodys simply accept this window dressing?
    18 Jul 2011, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    L_M: And that's the two big questions these gasping moments. Not one (debt ceiling), but two huge questions we investors have to incorporate contemporaneously. The other being what Moody's decides to do....the latter I'm much more concerned about.

     

    By the way, I'm not worried about "B" status, than I am AAa status. when the US gets to "B" everything the government has done to protect and augment Wall Strreet will be undone.

     

    Powers to be will not let that happen, because "their" wealth will be "targeted" as well.
    18 Jul 2011, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The "Powers that Be" are more concerned with maintaining that Status rather than the wealth aspect.

     

    Both sides have to "put up or shut up" for their constituents.

     

    Remember what happened to Bush 1 and his campaign promise:
    "Read my Lips." , he then caved to keep the Gov. open.

     

    Republicans will not repeat that fiasco.
    18 Jul 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Love_ Money
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    With so much of debt and irresponsible socialist spending, we don't deserve AA rating. LOL, we keep kicking the can for too long.
    18 Jul 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    The bottom of the article is fascinating, XOM and JNJ are safer than USA!!!
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    18 Jul 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    House Republicans will not vote for tax rate increases because they were elected specifically not to. Their elections are just as important to them as Prsident Obama's is to him. He (the POTUS) on the other hand feels he must get rate increases to separate Taxed Enough Already party activists and candidates from establishment Republicans who are more open to that sort of compromise. By voting on the "Cut, Cap and Ballance." proposal this week House Republicans hope to force Democrats to actually put forth a plan with real numbers. As the POTUS likes to say they want to provide a framework for discussion. I doubt they (Democrats) will do that however as they would have to live with the results thereafter. Historically it's much safer politically to demagogue the other side for whatever they put out there. In this environment however I'm not sure the historical norms still apply. Should the premise of this INSTA come to pass and no deal is reached by August 2nd there will be no default or downgrade as they will simply retool the process to continue pursuing their disparate agendas. They will pay the debt service and other obligations as required and the fight will turn even uglier as each side tries to spare it's pet items from the requisite cuts which will have to come close to 40%. That is not to say there will be 40% cuts across the board though. Some departments and agencies will see much steeper cuts of 60% while others will see slight cuts of 10% or less. Then the electorate will see exactly what each side is really about. Those revelations may have a significant impact on the 2012 election results. Should the economy continue to sputter along with unemployment above 8% into the summer of 2012 all of the money, good press and blame for Republicans in the world will not suffice to get the POTUS another term. IMHO.
    18 Jul 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And that is the Crux, arriving at a solution without Tax increases is not palatable to Dems. Meanwhile, there will be no solution involving Tax increases on the Rep side.

     

    Maybe a compromise could be struck wherein they take effect only when the Economy is strong or 2013.

     

    After 12-21-2012 :)
    18 Jul 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    I see a deal being made, but it will be a minimal deal. This will bring the issue back into play for the election which is exactly what the president does not want.

     

    I put the odds of his getting re-elected as less then 50/50 now, and as the economy spirals down, his odds are going to get thinner. He was hired to fix the economy. However, his first priority was Obamacare. He bailed out the financial system and wall street and created massive new levels of debt in the process. His governments solution to that debt, a program of inflation that destroys the value of our currency.

     

    Meanwhile, he has not created jobs or an environment contusive to creating jobs, and in the absence of massive government support, the economy is getting closer to stalling out again. He can point his finger at the Republicans all he wants, the fact is, he is the leader, and if he can't make deals happen, then he is out.

     

    So I see a deal and a minor pop. But quite frankly raising our bowering limit is not a positive economic indicator. I think the US is going to get downgraded anyway. You can't borrow your way out of structural economic problems. A downgrade will increase our bowering costs. I suppose they plan to fix that problem by yet further devaluation of our currency.

     

    Now what happens if there is a Middle East war? That would crank up some industries, but the price of oil would go through the roof. So a Middle East war would probably bankrupt our foreign oil dependent economy. So the failure of our leaders to remove our economies dependence on foreign oil will….

     

    you fill in the blanks…
    18 Jul 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Personally, I would vote for an increase in the Debt Ceiling If 90% of the increase went into an Infrastructure Bank which would be devoted to repairing the Nation's highways, bridges, water and sewage pipelines.

     

    In other words, It would create Jobs.
    18 Jul 2011, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    If this doesn't scream "short GM" I don't know what does!
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    18 Jul 2011, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. I expect to see Ford Motors (F) get a significantly worse labor deal ( From managements view point.) than either Government Motors (GM) or Chrysler. IIRC the last round of negotiations saw concessions from the UAW to GM and Chrysler that were not extended to Ford. Tax breaks and better labor agreements for it's competition put Ford at a disadvantage IMHO, another reason to eliminate all tax breaks across the board.
    18 Jul 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Freya, FPA: Greetings. The POTUS wants tax cuts set in stone with undefined spending cuts some where down the road in the out years. I doubt Republicans will go for a deal like that. Republicans are willing to close some loop holes, eliminate some subsidies and tax breaks to increase revenue which is essentially making wealthier players in the economy pay more up front. After all folks filing 1040-EZ or using 1040 standard deduction are not taking advantage of loop holes etc with the exception of the Earned Income Credit (EIC) which should in my view be eliminated. Those rating agencies will not downgrade U.S. debt instruments if a viable plan for substantial debt reduction is put in place and the debt service is paid on time. Of course a Middle East War would alter the picture considerably depending upon who is involved and how it is perceived to have started. Oil prices would definitely rise and place a drag on the global economy. Had we increased drilling a few years ago those wells would now be starting to get product to market as you suggested FPA. That fact alone would provide impetus to accelerated production of domestic fossil fuels. This is antithetical to this administration which would undoubtedly seek to minimize the push for increased domestic production. Immovable object meet irresistible force. It may prove to be a grand show with no discernible finale until the day after the election in 2012.
    18 Jul 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    FREYA

     

    Just heard a staggering figure. If you include entitlements our debt is actually 60 trillion. I hoinestly cannot comprehend that

     

    ACEHART
    18 Jul 2011, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    ACE: Suggestion. Open this up (Make sure you visit the restroom first, and while you're there, drop a Dramamine pill down your throat! Then open this up.):

     

    www.usdebtclock.org/

     

    Congrats on that 100% plus gain!

     

    ####

     

    Spoke to my broker about an hour ago. He is a buyer right now, and will be even moreso if the media and the politcos whip the market into a sell off fury. His greatest concern is not the debt ceiling, or the potential downgrade, but the PIIGS contagion.

     

    He still maintains the market will begin upticking come mid-September. Corporations are loaded with cash.

     

    ####

     

    Sidebar: (Apologies Freya) China bought 500 metric tons of corn this past quarter, more than what they usually buy in a year. US corn producers are not worried about the subsidies being taken away, with corn being $5 or $6/bushel. As my broker said, "China makes great flat screens. We make great corn."

     

    ####

     

    Off to the "time capsule" sweat box in a bit. Probably should have brought along some sort of breathing apparatus.
    19 Jul 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Oh yeah, i have attached the whole email but open this up and use your charting skills. I am the first to admit i have very little. But this is sickening...

     

    BrotherJohnF has posted an excellent video that shows just how removed from reality the COMEX silver market is. He shows that in just one minute 50,000 contracts were traded on the COMEX silver market. That calculates out to 250M ounces of paper silver or $10B worth of physical silver. IN ONE MINUTE! You can see his video here:
    Silver Update 71811 Caught in the act
    youtu.be/Y--jCrDOSjk

     

    Wow! That's a lot of silver. Brother John claims that these contracts were "dumped" on the market but I think that is highly doubtful. Who took the other end of those trades? Surely someone was not laying in wait for $10B worth of paper silver in that very minute.

     

    What seems more likely is that this was a computer driven price manipulation carried out by members of the banking cabal (JPM? EWT? UBS?) trading back and forth to each other in order to SET the price at a lower level before things got really ugly with the debt ceiling debate. Computers trading back and forth to each other at such high volumes as to destroy true price discovery.

     

    Sick, isn't it?

     

    The good news is that it exposes, once again, that the silver manipulation is alive and well and there will be no FREE MARKETS in silver until the computers are turned off...for good!

     

    Silver has already jumped back above $40 because they can't keep up this scam forever.
    21 Jul 2011, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Steve, Wynn has some choice words for the POTUS and investors.
    video.foxbusiness.com/.../
    19 Jul 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Must be the season of the Ditch. CONgress has ditched our retirement funds and now has no way of replacing them. This means default on the promise of Social Security is inevitable. Now the question becomes when will it happen and what can be done about it. The SCOTUS has already ruled that Social Security is a tax with out any special purpose so filing a cease and desist order to prevent Uncle Sugar from continuing to pick your pockets is out of the question. www.zerohedge.com/arti... If you are less than 50 years old you should plan your retirement sans Social Security payments. 
    19 Jul 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Funds in the Eurozone are running for cover. They may begin doing that here in a couple of weeks. Watch the outflows in suggested in this article for a tell on what those active managers are thinking. If this becomes a stampede you would be well advised to put your stops in place prior to the event. Say tomorrow. Got cash? sg.finance.yahoo.com/n...
    19 Jul 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    It seems the more you know the more reason to be afraid of these markets...
    19 Jul 2011, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The more you know, the greater your odds for survival.
    24 Jul 2011, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Gold is up over $15 already, just shy of 1%. Nat gas up. Crude down.
    Dow and S & P futures down, but not by much.

     

    The press has been screaming all weekend that the market will take a nose dive tomorrow if there is no resolution to the debt ceiling.

     

    This is such bad theater.
    24 Jul 2011, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A new SA Article on the mREIT Sector:

     

    Sell them All, Do it Now was the gist.

     

    I suggested using Put options as an alternative if available.

     

    Its a pity I couldn't generate more Interest in the Premise of this Blog because of the Idiocy in presuming a Rational approach by Congress.

     

    Inre, SLW vs SLV:

     

    How about GBL instead?
    25 Jul 2011, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Freya,

     

    Not sure what to do if they don't meet the August 2 deadline that's different what I already do. I'm heavy in precious metals because of the various global issues, massive central bank money printing, etc.

     

    I find it interesting that listening to various news streams on TV this morning that no one is talking about Jefferson County (includes Birmingham, AL) possibly having the largest municipal default ever as early as this Friday. The national level debate about the debt ceiling is only one piece. Municipalities and states have lots of problems that are going to bubble up from below. This is easy to predict as our economic downturn plus unemployment means less income tax revenue, and lower property prices means lower property taxes.
    25 Jul 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Jon: I'm in the process of trying to lower my property taxes. It's a convoluted trail to do so, but I'm currently paying at a rate that's almost 30% higher than what I paid for this crib; about 27% higher than the appraisal done before I bought this place.

     

    I imagine that there are scads like me who are getting off their behinds and fighting back against higher property taxes through obtaining an appraisal, and then filing to get their real estate tax lowered.

     

    I figure to save somewhere between $700 to $1000 annually by doing this procedure.

     

    One man's story....
    25 Jul 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Show me a government official at any level from small village to the nation that ever budgets for a 5% or greater decline in tax revenue. The next leg down could be a lot tougher if things don't get better soon, as all the problems will compound.
    25 Jul 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » YAVY, Insiders buying like no tommorow
    25 Jul 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    You've got to read this!
    finance.yahoo.com/blog...
    25 Jul 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    The wonders never cease to amaze. Maybe we could cut out the middle man and pay our taxes directly to the banks?
    25 Jul 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Freya this is for you, and I hope you are feeling better!
    247wallst.com/2011/07/.../
    25 Jul 2011, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Teddy bear Buffett on, "Debt Ceiling doesn't make any sense":

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    25 Jul 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    It hit me like a meat cleaver listening to Obama tonight. If somehow, however unlikely, the gang in D.C. don't pull it together, mortgage rates go up, foreclosures go up, more problems for the banks, et cetera. And, that's the wheels coming off without even thinking about losing our AAA rating.

     

    Oddly, the most important note to Wall Street in Obama's speech was: if we don't get this done, mortgage rates go up. Much of the rest was the usual shopping list of special interests that is apparently obligatory in speeches these days.
    25 Jul 2011, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Where will the money from the bond markets go if there is a downgrade? Gotta go.
    26 Jul 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    That's the key question Robert... although I don't think a downgrade is an "IF" anymore... I am shorting the bonds, and buying gold. When that downgrade hits, I am also going to be buying some big yield stocks too.
    26 Jul 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Good morning Robert Ferguson,
    Those who are required to invest in AAA bonds will get crowded into a shrinking number of choices if that happens; or have to change their rules. But, we'll see... the fat lady is still sipping ice tea backstage and fanning herself.
    26 Jul 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    Robert, Fox Business just answered that,,,,,GOLD,,,,,not money markets as most expect

     

    ACEHART
    26 Jul 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Financial Times wrote multiple articles about the money market funds going to cash and out of AAA USA treasuries in anticipation of a downgrade.
    Can you imagine what will happen if money markets break a buck? (I recall several did in 2008 and that was scary... )
    I bet anything they'd halt trading and certainly prohibit shorting. De ja vu 2008. Keep your short etf list handy, that may be the only way to jump in!
    26 Jul 2011, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Money markets can't buy gold.
    27 Jul 2011, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    FOX BUSINESS just stated that their is no wiggle room on the Aug 2 date...Didn't have time to read any postings but yesterdays speeches scared the hell out of me as an investor..

     

    ACEHART
    26 Jul 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    FOLKS

     

    Fox REPORTED that the money managers are set up for a DOUBLE A ratings drop, but if we miss one payment we go to D....Also if ONE agency drops us to single A it could cause a possible freeze in the banks...So guys consider taking some money out of the bank and bring it home. I am being conservative but want everyone to be safe !!!

     

    Remember our cash money markets hold TRIPLE A RATED bills, now what will happen if we lose that rating??
    26 Jul 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    Well here we go!!

     

    acehart
    26 Jul 2011, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    A little math here. Seems we're only $150B away from parties agreeing on the debt ceiling. That figures to be less than $500 per US citizen.

     

    Are our leaders going to trash the markets, ruin the credit rating, over a mere $500 bucks difference, when all US citizens already owe, including unfunded liabilities, over $1,000,000 each?

     

    Of course, what they are really asking for, is about another $3,000 per citizen. It's almost laughable, in a sad way.
    26 Jul 2011, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    I am more worried about the downgrade. FOX stated that the money makers already have accepted AA but if we get a few A they don't have a play in the playbook for that. That scares me. He also added that most money markets have triple A bonds in it and they would all have to either change the rules or do something since our treasury would no longer carry AAA status

     

    He said they all had a look of concern and told Charle Gasperino to then expect a huge market correction. Then if we missed ONE payment we then go directly to D status.

     

    These guys are playing with fire and imho do not have a plab to keep us at triple A...

     

    Thoughts anyone??

     

    ACEHART
    26 Jul 2011, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Ace: Be careful about how these "kookoomania" producers from CNBC to Fox try to sway the news. Their ratings go up when times are bad.

     

    It's a function of the illicit reality. I hardly listen to either anymore. Maybe only a half hour a day. Rather watch Beevis and Butthead for my news.
    27 Jul 2011, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    interesting divi play, Canadian:
    stockgumshoe.com/2011/07
    27 Jul 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Back peddling has commenced at the credit rating agencies. money.cnn.com/2011/07/.../ They are now acknowledging that a U.S. debt default is extremely unlikely and have taken a pass on identifying any of the proposed plans as the best one.
    27 Jul 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Rob, I think it is a done deal that the USA is going to lose the AAA bond rating.
    28 Jul 2011, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. While it's not out of the question I have doubts. Their mission is to grade the investment quality of debt instruments not make political stands for or against political parties, candidates or legislative proposals. They took a huge hit to their credibility when they sung the praises of derivative instruments at the behest of Uncle Sugar and the banksters. I suspect they have become gun shy of doing too much to support them openly again this soon. While they gave it their best shot by rumbling about a down grade actually doing one involving U.S. credit is a different story. When there are so many sovereign credit situations in worse shape that have not been downgraded downgrading the U.S first would be a disaster for them. Their credibility as an honest broker would be totally shot if they did that. In fact unless they downgraded all of the credit ratings of those states, municipalities and governments that are in such horrible shape first or simultaneously it could very well be the end of those rating agencies. No one will be willing to listen to them as they would be exposed as mercenaries for sale to the highest bidder.
    28 Jul 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    Robert

     

    According to some talking head that a Triple A rating has to meet certain criteria and if they pass what has been discussed it WILL NOT meet that criteria. That the money managers have already accepted a downgrade to Double A....Problem was if we get a single A, ALL BETS WERE OFF.

     

    Acehart
    28 Jul 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Ace: Greetings. When you own the information you can bend it all you want. Getting caught as they did however has consequences. Exactly what criteria were met concerning those derivative instruments they were so fond of? Even to the extent of email exchanges they thought were private deriding the very instruments they were touting as investment grade. Do pay attention to the man behind the curtain he's speaking with a forked tongue!
    28 Jul 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Love_ Money
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    Any contingency plan/suggestions for retail investors if we lose AAA rating? Keeping Cash may not be a good idea. Gold, Sliver, Swiss franks?
    29 Jul 2011, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Available as a poster, t-shirt, or mug - sums our situation up nicely:
    despair.com/government...
    30 Jul 2011, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    LM

     

    My personal preference has been accumulating Gold and Silver BUT i also know that (CEF) IS a stock that holds both of them. I am still worried long term about cash as others know i am a fiat hater.

     

    Having said that i also know that my esteem colleagues are still buying stocks like there is no problem so i might be way off base.
    Gold seems expensive as an entry point right now. I can see a pullback into the $1350.00 range. However if you plan on holding something long term, and i mean holding PHYSICAL SILVER is my play.

     

    Once you have it in your hands they cannot take it away, and i honestly think this might dip also but the upside is so great that i would not hesitate to buy it right now. I have a few places i would recommend and if youd like drop me a PM and i will give you the info.

     

    But i would take delivery, have NO ONE hold it for you as it may be used for other things i would discuss in a personal message. Mind you i can't believe i am saying this but my reading over a year has brought me to this conclusion. My response might be lengthly as well.

     

    So decide and i will gladly help as others helped me

     

    ACEHART
    30 Jul 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "Once you have it in your hands they cannot take it away".

     

    They did it once before Ace. If you have it hidden and are willing to risk imprisonment and they decide to do it again, you could be right.

     

    But *do* keep* in mind that it is our government, in which we can have no faith whatsoever, that you believe "can't take it away". They can and will, again, if it suits their purposes, which are *not* our purposes.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    BTW, after the confiscation of all the gold they could get, they set an arbitrary value of $35/oz. on it. The desired monetary effects were the reason for all this action.
    30 Jul 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Way too many places to buy from without a trail. So imho it can still be done. As far as imprisonment goes that so so far from my thought process. But i have learned never say never. So well see how this plays out. Appreciate the input.

     

    Maybe my coin guy is the exception but i really don't think so. Cash is king, For now

     

    ACEHART
    31 Jul 2011, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Only a few more days til the "It won't Happen" has a real chance to happen.

     

    Foreign hard asset stocks in politically friendly Geo locations. Niche companies with Niche products in the USA and US companies which generate more than 50% of sales abroad, are my non-div selections.

     

    As far as div's are concerned am focusing on an entry into SUUIF which pays 10c monthly but will start accumulation around $10.50.

     

    Figuring to buy DXD into the next rally.
    30 Jul 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Going short hey!

     

    I love your timing. A potential downgrade, and more bad news on the economy is likely coming... Buy the short on the ceiling deal pop and wait for the plug to get pulled.

     

    The primary caution I see is the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting in August (anyone have a date on that?) What will the Fed say?
    30 Jul 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    On near-term thing to think about - I don't know the implications - is that the Fed had all their primary dealers in a room together, per FPA's comment.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    This is *not* the norm. Normally they talk with each individually.

     

    A cover story as to why it was convenient was provided, but I don't recall what it was - sounded phony to me.

     

    I *suspect* three possibilities: a coordinated response to no debt ceiling resolution in time (or nearly so), a coordinated response to a bond rating downgrade and a coordinated "stealth" QE x in response to the dismal GDP and related numbers we just received. Or maybe in response to market action - can't let those assets drop you know.

     

    Well, after adjusting my foil hat,

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Going to the Jackson neighborhood (Grand Tetons National Park) for 3 nights tomorrow... should I leave a Hallmark card for Ben? (You know... when you care to send the very best...)
    30 Jul 2011, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (10901) | Send Message
     
    The simple fact is Aug 2 is a contrived number. Like in 1995 the government will just tap existing funds, pension plans, etc. for months until Washington wakes up and does something after people scream about the savings in the government not going to their intended purposes. Even so, it is sad to watch the partisanship with no consideration for the public's best interest as the economy slides over debt ceiling worries.
    31 Jul 2011, 03:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Moon, August 2, is an arbitrary date. It was back in June when Gietner estimated the Treasury will be out of funds by August 2. The August 15 Treasury coupon date isn't an arbitrary date. Deal almost has to be done by then. I was told by a family member yesterday, a hard core left winger, that the stock market has lost around $600B in value due to this DC quagmire.

     

    If the debt ceiling is not passed by August 2, it's quite feasible the stock market valuation will go down by MORE than what congress decides eventually to pass.

     

    Quite a strange potential fact to digest.
    31 Jul 2011, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    You gonna miss 4REALS input ?? Just finished a book a poster recommended to me called ONE SECOND AFTER and i must admit it was quite scary. Maybe some of you have read it but i could not put it down. Waiting to get a copy SIGNED of yours one day.

     

    Any timeframe on a release or are you still far away ??

     

    ACEHART
    31 Jul 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Ace: Freya has determined this "Compass" to be entirely and solely dedicated to the debt ceiling "what ifs." Noth'n else.

     

    Thank you for asking, but this is more of a Quick Chat kind of question.

     

    I will answer that I feel a little overwhelmed right now. I'm am working on the book, but I'm about three levels beyond having bifurcated interests right now. My goal is to have it done by the end of next year. Getting it published is a whole other story. I believe Dr. Suess was turned down 29 times before landing a publisher.

     

    What will be great is that I'm hoping all this moving and phase one of refurbishing and renovating is completed by Labor Day. Having an award winning architect stop by this Tuesday, and possibly a prominent record producer come in to advise on all the audio visual stuff I'm adding, Wednesday.

     

    August 5th is when the painters and carpenters arrive. Lots of decisions to make between now and then, as I will be venturing off to the family reunion the same day through the 14th, then onto Pittsburgh to deal with my nasty locker, then back here to Philly on the 18th, because the next day I have a Best Buy consultant coming in. Hopefully, all the painting, woodworking, some tile work will be completed by then.

     

    Then there's always that exceeding budget thingy, which is going to occur.
    31 Jul 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    The US Mint may come in handy to deal with the debt ceiling through stamping out platinum coins. Incredible! The below "Step 3" comes from the linked article further below from Global Economic Intersect, where 5 other options are discussed about what could happen if the debt ceiling is not raised:

     

    3. Proof Platinum Coin Seigniorage

     

    Congress provided the authority, in legislation passed in October 1996, for the US Mint to create platinum bullion or proof platinum coins with arbitrary fiat face value having no relationship to the value of the platinum used in these coins. These coins are legal tender. So, when the Mint deposits them in its Public Enterprise Fund account at the Fed, the Fed must credit that account with the face value of these coins. This difference between the Mint’s costs in producing the coins and the credit provided by the Fed is the US Mint’s profit. The US code also provides for the Treasury to periodically “sweep” the Mint’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank for profits earned from these coins. Coin seigniorage is just the profits from these coins, which are then booked as miscellaneous receipts (revenue) to the Treasury and go into the Treasury General Account (TGA), narrowing the revenue gap between spending and tax revenues. Platinum coins with huge face values, $1, $1.6, $2, $3, $6.2, $15, and $30 Trillion coins have been mentioned, could close the revenue gap entirely, and, if used often enough, technically end deficit spending, while still retaining the gap between tax revenues and spending.

     

    ####

     

    Can anybody say Still Water Mining?

     

    Complete article linked below:

     

    econintersect.com/word...
    31 Jul 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    Can't wait to see what comes out of Washington in the next few days. My best guess is the can kicked down the road, the Presidents crew working hard on not getting downgraded.

     

    Keeping a close eye on equities as well. Looking for a nice entry point on those nice dividend payers like PSEC and FSC. I know they have been hammered lately just concerned their dividends might be effected.

     

    IMHO i believe the pm's might be affected as well, just not sure if i should be expanding some more in equities or the metals. It does seem like a compromise will be reached but will it be a healthy one??

     

    I doubt it, so well know in a matter of hours now. My humble apology as i thought my question to MAYA was in the quick chat. Sometimes these meds play tricks on me.

     

    ACEHART
    31 Jul 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "i thought my question to MAYA was in the quick chat"

     

    We've all done that occasionally and we (mostly) weren't taking any meds. We just plain had a "brain fart". :-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2011, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    So a deal ( joke ) has been supposedly reached. Seems like a lot of unhappy people. ARE they kicking the can down the road??

     

    Nancy Pelosi....we may not be able to support it !!!

     

    ACEHART
    31 Jul 2011, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2264) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't expect this "agreement" to make it out of the House intact.

     

    If it does, it will be another case of "Business as Usual" as in trying to kick the can down the road, Again.

     

    I'm agressively tracking PSEC with its takeover of a Media company. I didn't sign up for a corp but rather a Mini Business Investment company or SBA entity.

     

    Granted, it may make them a lot of moolah with the ads I expect next year.

     

    I like SUUIF because of its Propane segment.

     

    Also, keep an eye on ALJ, the biggest 7-11 licensee in the USA.
    1 Aug 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    GOTTA GIVE IT TO RON PAUL !!!!

     

    Ron Paul slams it right out of the ballpark.
    When a Cut is Not a Cut
    One might think that the recent drama over the debt ceiling involves one side wanting to increase or maintain spending with the other side wanting to drastically cut spending, but that is far from the truth. In spite of the rhetoric being thrown around, the real debate is over how much government spending will increase.
    No plan under serious consideration cuts spending in the way you and I think about it. Instead, the "cuts" being discussed are illusory, and are not cuts from current amounts being spent, but cuts in projected spending increases. This is akin to a family "saving" $100,000 in expenses by deciding not to buy a Lamborghini, and instead getting a fully loaded Mercedes, when really their budget dictates that they need to stick with their perfectly serviceable Honda. But this is the type of math Washington uses to mask the incriminating truth about their unrepentant plundering of the American people.
    The truth is that frightening rhetoric about default and full faith and credit of the United States is being carelessly thrown around to ram through a bigger budget than ever, in spite of stagnant revenues. If your family's income did not change year over year, would it be wise financial management to accelerate spending so you would feel richer? That is what our government is doing, with one side merely suggesting a different list of purchases than the other.
    In reality, bringing our fiscal house into order is not that complicated or excruciatingly painful at all. If we simply kept spending at current levels, by their definition of "cuts" that would save nearly $400 billion in the next few years, versus the $25 billion the Budget Control Act claims to "cut". It would only take us 5 years to "cut" $1 trillion, in Washington math, just by holding the line on spending. That is hardly austere or catastrophic.
    A balanced budget is similarly simple and within reach if Washington had just a tiny amount of fiscal common sense. Our revenues currently stand at approximately $2.2 trillion a year and are likely to remain stagnant as the recession continues. Our outlays are $3.7 trillion and projected to grow every year. Yet we only have to go back to 2004 for federal outlays of $2.2 trillion, and the government was far from small that year. If we simply returned to that year's spending levels, which would hardly be austere, we would have a balanced budget right now. If we held the line on spending, and the economy actually did grow as estimated, the budget would balance on its own by 2015 with no cuts whatsoever.
    We pay 35 percent more for our military today than we did 10 years ago, for the exact same capabilities. The same could be said for the rest of the government. Why has our budget doubled in 10 years? This country doesn't have double the population, or double the land area, or double anything that would require the federal government to grow by such an obscene amount.
    In Washington terms, a simple freeze in spending would be a much bigger "cut" than any plan being discussed. If politicians simply cannot bear to implement actual cuts to actual spending, just freezing the budget would give the economy the best chance to catch its breath, recover and grow.

     

    acehart
    1 Aug 2011, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Now get ready for the downgrade. This bill does not contain the $4Bil in cuts that S & P was looking for...
    2 Aug 2011, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    correction: $4 Tril.
    2 Aug 2011, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    OG: I've learned that a ratings cut would smash some mutual funds, because they only are "allowed" to have an AAA rating for all or a percentage of their AAA investments.

     

    Much in large thanks to you, that I learned this fact.

     

    What I'm trying to get a grip on is what happens if Mutual Funds change their covenants; suddenly AAa or less are still viable. Afterall, if AAA's are wiped out, then you go to the next thing to keep your fund up and running.
    2 Aug 2011, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Ugly, forced selling would occur. We would see the disorderly flow out of those funds much like we saw hedge fund redemptions in 2008, imo. It would create fabulous buying opps.
    2 Aug 2011, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    I'm just guessing. I have my list of longs ready, just in case...
    2 Aug 2011, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    I think they have to go back to the SEC to change covenants. This would not be a quick process, imo.
    2 Aug 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Ergo, then the "safest" investing instruments get whacked? What we may have here is a time when high, safe yielders also have growth potential.

     

    Check out once price steady Chimera, for instance. Throwing off an above 15% kick, recently down a buck, into the lower $3s, from the lower $4s, all because of this debt ceiling thingy.
    2 Aug 2011, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Those shills called rating agencies will not do more than change the outlook on U.S. debt to negative. The AAA rating is safe until at least September and they were making all of this noise to support the administration's position in the negotiations. We will see an encore performance soon as the 2012 budget is due in less than a month. September 31 2011 is the last day the current continuing resolution will allow government spending. Another threatened government shut down will be touted at that point in order to raise tax rates on those evil rich. By now everyone is aware that the very rich including corporations like General Electric (GE) and General Motors (GM) pay no taxes because of the breaks and loop holes they have paid to have built into the tax code. Those "Most vulnerable among us." also pay no taxes and in many cases actually receive subsidies to their existence in the form of tax credits like the earned income credit (EIC) wholly funded by the middle income group. This group pays ALL of the taxes and individually have no clout to buy tax breaks of their own. Tax code overhaul or reform is coming but not fast enough when this administration and it's allies are moving as fast as possible to destabilize the nation in order to fundamentally transform it. With luck there will be a lot more TEA party "Hobbits." and a lot fewer RINOs and progressives in the legislature come JAN 2013. I wouldn't be looking for large rallies or pull backs from this level as the fun isn't over yet.
    2 Aug 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    I have read where mutual funds and some money markets have already started to sell off their Treasuries. However i could use some advice as to how to play Gold if i believe it will continue to go up in price. I know we have GLD and CEF but am i missing any other method besides holding physical.

     

    Thanks
    ACEHART
    2 Aug 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Fitch affirms AAA rating on U.S. debt instruments but warns the debt addicted government to reign in spending. Where have we heard this refrain before? news.yahoo.com/fitch-s...
    2 Aug 2011, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Now that the ratings agencies have temporarily left the field what should we expect from them during the budget debates? They are becoming more irrelevant by the day as they sell their credibility. Fitch says stop racking up debt or else. Or else what? They threaten a downgrade if $4T in cuts isn't made or if the debt ceiling isn't raised. Which is it? More cuts or more spending? Stay tuned for the upcoming battle of the budget on another disgusting episode of "As the Stomach Turns.".
    2 Aug 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    Robert

     

    As far as i am concerned these rating angencies are no different than other agencies. Probably on the take and pressured like hell.

     

    Why else can we be rated TRIPLE A??

     

    ACEHART
    2 Aug 2011, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    Ace: Greetings. Our AAA rating stems at least in part from being the global safety net. Once that perception is gone Katie bar the door. Those ratings agencies would have bettered their prospects by remaining the honest brokers they were supposed to be. By selling their ratings and reputations for short term profits they have marred their only stock in trade and come close to making themselves irrelevant.
    3 Aug 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
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