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Trade War: A potential Black Swan

Oct. 09, 2011 9:13 AM ET13 Comments
Freya profile picture
Freya's Blog
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Will Congress ignite a Trade War with China via passage of a Bill to revalue Their Currency InRe the USD?

My take is as follows:

1. Massive future inflation as the prices of "Made In China" products skyrocket. I maintain it is hard to find products without this label.

2. Chinese curtail all purchases of US Debt as the value of the Trillion or so they already hold plummets. And will other Nations feel constrained to review their own holdings in this for fear of similar action?

3. China becomes the Beneficiary as Future purchases of commodities priced in $$$ become that much cheaper while the price paid for REEs skyrockets.

4. China can retaliate by dumping US Debt and Embargoing REEs. Any nation selling REEs to the USA will not receive any themselves.

The US Economy goes Kerplunk; USD goes Kerplunk; US Debt...pffft.

All things "Natural Gas" skyrocket as people realize the full impact REEs have on "Green" products

I imagine that this small listing can be expanded, probably by multiples.

Thoughtful relevant comments welcome.

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