I was going to do this over the weekend but decided that this part of it should be done ASAP:
Sanctions on Iran will not be viable without Russia and China. I really don't know if anything will stop Iran at this point.
Israel has weaned its way away from oil as much as it can. I believe an Israeli strike will occur within the next 30-45 days at the Outside.
I saw an interview with an Islamic Journalist on Bloomberg a few weeks ago. The gist of what he said is as follows:
The West sees the turmoil in Iran as being between 2 Political entities. This is just a smokescreen being pushed by the current Leadership. In reality, the Revolutionary Guard is about to takeover, Everything. They plan to rule Iran without interference from anyone including the Religious leaders.
One Party, One Rule, President Akmadinni's roots are Revolutionary Guard. They want a Nuke.
Expect Martial Law to be declared first. (my opinion)
Given the circumstances, Israel will not have a choice.
My opinion, on the aftermath, is that Oil Spikes but Nat Gas may spike even more ( Iran may not have much in the way of "good" Oil but it is one of the Top 3 Nat Gas producers in the World )
Instead of a 2nd half recessionary drop, it occurs in the first half with major Inflationary implications throughout our economy more so than other Developed Nations. Releasing Oil from the SPR requires refiners who not only have shut down but have fired employees as well, Demand Destruction's bedfellows.
What happens in the Region? Do Old Vendetta's finally achieve resolution? Got me but in the interim the immediate winners should be:
Gold, Energy (all Kinds), USD, Telecom, Oil Transportation, servicing and refining...you get the gist...
Stagflation on the Hyperside. If you prepare for the worst, things can only get better. But you have to prepare.
As far as I'd concerned, current Stockmarket predictions have Caveats on them related to my prediction. However, those Caveats are Limited to:
"All predictions are OFF" if my scenario occurs. None of them include what to do if it were a Fait Accompli.
History has a way of repeating itself.