Seeking Alpha

Price Headley's  Instablog

Price Headley
Send Message
Price Headley was inducted into the Traders' Hall of Fame in 2007 and is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends. Price appears regularly on CNBC, Fox News, and... More
My company:
BigTrends
My blog:
BigTrends Blog
My book:
Big Trends in Trading: Strategies to Master Major Market Moves
  • 2013 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Analysis Picks From BigTrends.com 0 comments
    May 3, 2013 1:02 AM

    It's time for our annual KY Derby selections and commentary. Last year we were pretty dead on, hitting many horses that finished in-the-money in the Triple Crown Races (especially Price's picks).

    First, we'll start off with an updated table of past Derby winners, their speed ratings and final tune-up race. Our analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in prep races have a better probability of winning the big race.

    Derby WinnerBRIS Speed RatingLast race (# weeks before Derby)
    I'LL HAVE ANOTHER95, 102Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
    ANIMAL KINGDOM100, 89Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)
    SUPER SAVER92, 94Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
    MINE THAT BIRD96, 98Sunland Derby (5 weeks)
    BIG BROWN106, 104Florida Derby (5 weeks)
    STREET SENSE98, 101Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)
    BARBARO104, 104, 97, 97Florida Derby (5 weeks)
    GIACOMO100, 96, 98, 96Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
    SMARTY JONES105, 109, 101, 103Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
    FUNNY CIDE111, 103, 97Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
    WAR EMBLEM109, 105, 88, 94Illinois Derby (4 weeks)
    MONARCHOS108, 108, 106, 98Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
    FUSAICHI PEGASUS110, 103, 100, 98Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
    CHARISMATIC104, 94, 94, 94Lexington (2 weeks)
    REAL QUIET107, 103, 73Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
    SILVER CHARM102, 98, 105Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
    GRINDSTONE101, 102, 93Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
    THUNDER GULCH98, 103, 106Blue Grass (3 weeks)
    GO FOR GIN104, 105, 99, 100Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
    SEA HERO96, 85, 77Blue Grass (3 weeks)
    LIL E. TEE102, 96, 107, 100Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)
    STRIKE THE GOLD109, 100, 99, 87Blue Grass (3 weeks)
    UNBRIDLED108, 101, 104, 98Blue Grass (3 weeks)

    Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com:

    The big wild card in the 2013 Run for the Roses will be the weather, as forecasts show an 80% chance of rain on Saturday in Louisville.
    If it is muddy on the track I like to put a little back up money on the long shots of 33-1 or higher, which can save the day if the wet track muddies the current form.

    My favorite in this year's race is Verrazano (Post Position 14, 4-1 odds). He's the second choice behind new darling Orb, but I like Verrazano's consistency, as he is the only horse with not just 2 but 3 straight speed ratings over 100. So I will key most of my bets around him.

    The Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. On that note here's my top challengers to Verrazano:

    Normandy Invasion (PP 5, 12-1): Closing fast on Verrazano at the end of the Wood Memorial, he has also posted impressive workouts lately. The profile reminds me of the similar setup when I picked Funny Cide to win the Derby. Must use this one for exotics and saver win bets.

    Revolutionary (PP 3. 10-1): Responded gamely to come back to win the Louisiana Derby. I like his heart.

    Vyjack (PP 20, 15-1): It's hard to look past an undefeated colt with good speed. Breaking from the far outside is not harmful in a large field, the question is if he has staying power.

    So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:

    $20 Win on 14
    $10 Win on 5
    $5 Exacta box 5,14
    $5 Exacta box 14,20
    $5 Exacta box 3,14
    $1 Trifecta 14 with 5 with ALL
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 14 with ALL

    Moby Waller, Portfolio Manager & Analyst:

    The 3 year old horses in this race haven't gone such a long distance before with such a large field. With the expected rain, it will be the tough horses with heart that will emerge - those that can run off the pace and/or closers. Therefore, I threw out what looks like the speed horses that are likely to fade late or get swallowed up by the pack - one of those wire-to-wire horses may end up proving it can run off the pace, but I'd rather select ones that have already proven they can.

    Here's my projected Top 4 finishers:

    Revolutionary (PP 3, 10-1)
    Java's War (PP 19, 15-1)
    Orb (PP 16, 7-2)
    Normandy Invasion (PP 5, 12-1)

    Live Longshots that can also hit the board (meaning top 4):

    Vyjack (PP 20, 15-1)
    Itsmyluckyday (PP 12, 15-1)

    I think any of these 4 can win it, so I would be looking to do some Exacta and Trifecta boxes:

    Theoretical bets:

    $2 Exacta Box (3, 19, 16, 5) = $24
    $1 Trifecta Box (3, 19, 16, 5) = $24
    $0.10 Superfecta Box (3, 19, 16, 5, 20, 12) = $36
    $0.10 Superfecta Box (16, 5, 15, 12, 14, 8) = $36

    Good luck!
    Price Headley,
    BigTrends.com
    1-800-244-8736

    (click to enlarge)

Back To Price Headley's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.