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Studied: Power Engineering, Exploration Technology, Worked Upstream, Midstream, Downstream in Oil and Gas, Pipelines, Drilling, Refineries. I'm Interested in very big picture, game changers that come from sizeable economic deposits of Oil, Gas, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Specialty Metals used in... More
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  • Last Entry Point Price To Buy TAG Oil Is A BONANZA 2 comments
    May 29, 2013 11:47 AM | about stocks: TAOIF

    (click to enlarge)

    Today is a great day for people who know how to think long term.

    Tag plunged more than 25% today, creating an excellent price for

    new entrants to the New Zealand Oil Boom. If you haven't heard, the

    Oil in NZ is high quality, in some places its 50API so it fetches UK

    Brent Oil Premium Prices. That is just the start, NZ is sitting on virgin

    geology that looks fantastic on seismic and from stratigraphic well

    data. Translation, the OIL is THERE in multiple basins and now the

    TECHNOLOGY to extract it is being put to work. This is going to be a

    bonanza, that is an old word that means, "A situation or event that

    creates a sudden increase in wealth, good fortune, or profits"

    For the FULL EFFECT of this word you need to listen to this clip.

    www.youtube.com/watch

    OK, That was the 70's way of making your heart pound a bit harder.

    So, what you need to know is why its going to be a BONANZA.

    1. THEY HAVE THE RIGHT LAND POSITIONS

    2. THEY HAVE OIL THAT EVEN THEY DON'T KNOW THEY HAVE YET

    3. THEY HAVE ACCESS TO THE TECHNOLOGY TO FIND, DRILL, FLOW

    4. THE RESERVE SIZE IS MASSIVE

    5. IT WILL BE VERY ECONOMIC VERY SOON, HANG ON

    (click to enlarge)

    3 Months from now, Today will be a BLIP on the SCREEN. What you want to do is BUY in on days like these. Exploration is a see-saw, up-down, volatile market. It will always be so, its the nature of the UNKNOWN, that is what exploration is. This Play is DIFFERENT, due to the GEOLOGY and the APPLICATION of New TECHNOLOGY, game changing, revolutionary technology. Keep reading...

    (click to enlarge) YOU SHOULD BE BUYING ON DAYS LIKE THESE

    (click to enlarge) YOU SHOULD BE BUYING ON DAYS LIKE THESE

    You see the rock that holds the Oil is not something that was ever thought to be extractable economically. Until the advent of HORIZONTAL DRILLING, FRACKING and 3D Seismic changed the rules of the Game. Don't take my word for it, look what happened in NORTH DAKOTA below. The BAKKEN oil production has skyrocketed since 2005, why? Application of a REVOLUTIONARY TECHNOLOGY.

    Others have said FRACKING Shale is to the Oil Industry what the INTERNET was to the Computer Industry, it changes EVERYTHING.

    Well now that TECHNOLOGY is being applied to New Zealand for the 1st Time Ever. We are in the early days of this right now.

    (click to enlarge) See what happened...600% increase and climbing.

    Now get this part, its the most important part...North Dakota has shale that averages 10m to 50m thick. New Zealand has shale upto 600m thick in some areas of the east coast basin.

    We are talking 10-12X the Size of North Dakota Oil fields.

    Are you starting to get the picture here. 50 API oil fetches $80-100 per barrel. The oil reserves in this companies land package is potentially larger than the existing largest oil companies on the planet.

    Sounds a bit too good right, well think Length x Width x Height = Some Volume, then imagine something like 8-9% of the Volume is recoverable, the studies coming out are still in the hundreds of Billions of barrels, (not Millions, "B"illions).

    So think long term, oil in the ground at $100/BBL x Some Number of BBL in the Billions means lots of money long term.

    You will never get in at rock bottom, you will never sell at the peak price, you should build a position on BAD Days and take gains on GOOD Days, this is about as good of a deal as investors may ever see on this company for the forseeable future.

    One success in the EAST COAST and this is back to sky high.

    GE just said they are going ALL IN on this Oil Shale Boom

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/05/28/ge-invests-big-in-shale-oil-boom/

    Just google Oil shale, its everywhere, a planetary phenomenon.

    This is only the Beginning of a MASSIVE turnaround in the OIL and Energy revolution. Don't sit this out, its not a short term opportunity, you can be well positioned in 2-3 years the earlier you understand you have to buy in when everyone is heading for the hills.

    (click to enlarge) There have been many dips, followed by new highs

    Look back to 2009, and see that this is a blip, if you get this concept, and buy in on the big dips (gifts from heaven) you will be rewarded by 2014, again in 2015, and 2016. This is the nature of an Exploration play.

    (click to enlarge) The Universe may as well have sent you a GIFT, a virtual coupon to buy into one of the most exciting shows on the planet for 25% off, thats the way I choose to see it.

    + Disclaimer: For the 1:1000000 person who will think these are real coupons this message is for you, this is a graphic only, used or intended to explain a investing concept only and not to be construed as representing anything of negotiable value for any discount of anykind for anything whatsoever, capish. Glad we got that sorted out.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQX:TAOIF.

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Comments (2)
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  • larrytiger60
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    TAG said they completed their Taranaki Basin "behind pipe" infrastructure late March, making it possible to put numerous wells into production. How can we find out what the barrels sold/revenue numbers were for April and May? Will we have to wait for the Q2 report?
    5 Jun 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • tullii
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This might be a non-answer but I think the Q2 production numbers will be available to everyone (public) at the same time, as is standard procedure for material news releases. "Behind Pipe" - i think means they have yet be perforated and completed, (in order to flow oil or be put into initial production). That is my read on it. You can always email or call the company, for clarification on cheal A, B, sidewinder but I think they will be straight up on the Q2 oil revenue as fast as that data is public.

     

    ----------------------...
    Below are a Summary of TAG well status from their link
    http://bit.ly/11lPcdH

     

    Site Producing* Behind Pipe
    Cheal A A3, A7, A9, A10, A11, A12 A1, A4, A8
    Cheal B B3, B4ST, B6, B8 B1, B2, BH1, B5, B7
    Cheal C C1, C2, C3, C4**
    Sidewinder SW-A2, SW-A3, SW-A4 SW-A1, SW-A5**

     

    *Cheal-A7 and A12 and Cheal-A9, A10, A11 and A12 are all producing into small diameter temporary production lines that inhibit optimal production. Back pressure testing on the individual wells indicate these wells will produce more optimally using their own production pipelines upon completion of the Cheal infrastructure upgrades.

     

    ** Re-completed and/or awaiting production test
    ----------------------...

     

    You could extrapolate on past $/BBL x BBL to estimate the possible numbers yet to come out by averaging existing cheal, sidewinder numbers and using a simple calculation...

     

    but I would suggest you take a longer term view on this Basin as a whole, not being so concerned with single wells, or single quarters as they are likely to have some exceed expectations and some disappoint, but longer term they will become like a manufacturer able to repeat success after success once certain exploration, drilling, production costs and unknowns become better known.

     

    The Oil is there, it is high-quality, but unlike existing large reserve oil companies they(Tag) must keep risk-taking to expand thier reserve...that comes with a territory of volatility and unknowns.
    Their technical team knows their business, I say let them do their thing and use opportunities like this month to buy on the dips (gifts) when they present themselves. Things will improve, this is way oversold as people yank $ out for summer holidays etc.

     

    Too often I think investors and analysts are a tad bit unrealistic about the challenges faced by exploration companies in the way they attack them for missing a quarter or having any setback, maybe I am too soft here but its a frickin tough thing to get all the stars to line up for you every quarter in every aspect of this industry. If its just to please some people who (no insults intended) are clueless of how energy actually gets from 3 miles below ground to at some point in the total thermodynamic cycle to power their cappucino machine or manufacture their suntan lotion bottle, or refrigerate the ice in their mojito drink.

     

    I would re-read these releases ...and the links below for a better overview of how they have executed on their plans thus far.

     

    5/28/2013 TAG Oil's Taranaki Basin Success Paves the Way for Future Growth in New Zealand

     

    4/4/2013 TAG Oil's Cheal Infrastructure Expansion Complete Paving Way for Continued Oil & Gas Production Growth in Taranaki

     

    3/19/2013 TAG Oil Announces Continued Exploration Success with Two New Sidewinder Wells; Senior Executive Randy Toone Appointed

     

    2/15/2013 TAG Oil Provides Third Quarter Results

     

    11/23/2013 TAG Oil Begins 2013 With A 13-Well Taranaki Basin Drilling Campaign

     

    http://bit.ly/14hNPRG

     

    http://bit.ly/vPZUSb
    5 Jun 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
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