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Studied: Power Engineering, Exploration Technology, Worked Upstream, Midstream, Downstream in Oil and Gas, Pipelines, Drilling, Refineries. Regardless of our desire for clean energy, oil makes things and is the building block of any economy. From production to transport to refining its the... More
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  • I Wouldn`t Write Off New Zealand Energy Just Yet 6 comments
    Apr 23, 2014 4:22 PM | about stocks: NZERF

    Its been a dismal episode riding this slide the past year or so.

    However I would not write off New Zealand Energy, just yet.

    In the category it falls into, junior E&P, it has just started producing oil in Q1, and although at a slower pace, than its followers may wish - more patience is needed to follow this play through 2014.

    We could be near a bottom, and for the risk tolerant investor, this could be the entry point that can make you some $ if you weigh the odds of what might yet be in the ground on both sides of the island.

    Photo above was the Waihapa Acquisition that occured in 2013

    Click Links: April Presentation

    http://bit.ly/1mERF21

    More Links below: (click headlines)

    I know the charts show a clear selling trend. I just don`t think the charts do anything but explain the markets adversity to risk right now. The charts tell what happened, not what is going to happen. I cannot predict what is GOING to happen any more than you can, however I have reason to suspect the market is over punishing NZERF, V.NZ and that can translate to a trading opportunity in the next couple of weeks.

    I am sticking my neck out and going to suggest that the chart trend will be proven wrong by May 9th, and that the numbers coming out on May 5th or shortly after will be slightly better than guidance suggested.

    There are a number of near term wells that are not part of the Q1,Q2 production updates. Its not going to be the boost that gets people really really excited just yet, but it will likely be moderately better than march and help put positive investor sentiment back into believing NZEC is capable of improving production Quarter to Quarter.

    The real catalyst, may not come from NZEC at all, and instead may be the reporting of two things by NZEC`s competitive neighbor (Tag Oil). The first being what was learned from drilling their first onshore Kapuni well, and second and perhaps more relevant, what the results were on the East Coast well drilled by Tag Oil last year.

    In a short time frame both events above should be material to how an investor views the massive acreage position that New Zealand Energy sits on (both in Taranaki, and East Coast).

    Last year $33.5 MM was spent to acquire this facility below.

    Right now most of the production is shallow, from Moki.

    The bigger future for this production station is likely from deeper, the Tikorangi, which is challenging to drill and complete but produces under great pressure and flow rates before declining due to a variety of geological and reservoir engineering reasons.

    Deeper than Tikorangi, lies the Kapuni, a proven offshore basin, which tag oil (next door) recently attempted a deep exploration well chasing natural gas. In the event that well proves commercial, then New Zealand Energy sits on top of the same geology with their Waihapa Acquisition.

    The drilling permits acquired with the production facility offer large future farm-in opportunities on exisiting permits. This is not to be underestimated, as we are still early in delineating how large Taranaki is and what its resource quantity is.

    Now to the real kicker, which is longer term, still speculative, but the real reason you should read everything you can on all players in New Zealand (and soon).

    New Zealand might have its own Bakken. An upto 600m thick shale play on the east side of the island. In case you aren`t aware, 600m is very, very thick for a payzone and this could translates to economic quantities of oil (enough to shift geopolitical equations).

    NZEC has a very large acreage position of over 2 million net acres (exploration permits) in the fairway of the Whangai and Waipawa source rocks (shale) and geoscientists believe it could hold a substantial size of oil, comparable to North Dakota, or even larger.

    The east coast is highly attractive for its exploration potential, and by this summer 2014 we should have much more information on just how the initial east coast exploration went last year.

    Disclaimer: Oil Exploration is extremely risky and you should not take this blog as investment advice. You should read all the cautionary statements and investor disclosures of all companies mentioned and hire or consult with a competent advisor before jumping into any risky investment decision.

    Stocks: NZERF
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Comments (6)
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  • VultureofValue
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    I really appreciate your articles. Thank you very much.
    Albania, Colombia, and New Zealand look awfully exciting.
    One area I've found myself also looking at is Tajikistan, MNAP which has some solid management that helped make PENYF what is today, and TETHF are compelling.

     

    What's your take on central Asia especially Tajikistan?

     

    That spray paint intro is so cool!
    14 Jul 2014, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • tullii
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Author’s reply » July 13: Update

     

    TOKO 2B pays off...NZERF adds about 30BBL.

     

    Still a long way to go, but it's a start. read the release here

     

    http://bit.ly/1mZUg7d
    15 Jul 2014, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • tullii
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » aug 11
    NZ brief update... Proust still hunting for capital, drilling partners.

     

    http://bit.ly/1pSDaXJ

     

    June Production 231bbl/d closing in on Break Even $
    (237 was b/e).

     

    http://bit.ly/1mZUg7d

     

    It's going to several months before this ship changes course,
    The direction is better than 3 months ago, but shareholders are exhausted from revised projections and timelines.

     

    My estimation is mid February 2015 we will have renewed interest of The east coast basin. based on Tag oil's 3 well completion plans, NZ may attract a partner if tag has any producing wells.
    16 Aug 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • tullii
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » November O&G Wrap
    By Neil Ritchie

     

    Oil and gas activity continues around New Zealand – from preliminary seismic surveys to exploration and development drilling. Most activity still centres on Taranaki, either onshore or offshore, but some is scheduled near the top and bottom of the country.
    The government’s New Zealand Petroleum & Minerals unit has granted Norway’s TGS-Nopec Geophysical Company an eight-month petroleum prospecting permit (PPP 56377) to conduct at least one seismic survey over 136,512 square kilometres of the massive offshore frontier Reinga Basin, northwest of the North Island.

     

    And Houston-headquartered Schlumberger Seaco is seeking a similar prospecting permit but at the other end of New Zealand. It has applied for PPP 57031 covering 446,129 square kilometres of the Great South Basin.

     

    Late last year then new country entrant Norwegian giant Statoil was granted a 9818 square kilometre exploration licence PEP 55781 over just a small part of the Reinga Basin. The fact that TGS-Nopec has applied for a much larger prospecting permit indicates that it is probably planning a “multi-client spec survey” where it will hold proprietary rights to all information it gathers – for perhaps 15 years or so – and will be able to sell that data to maybe several explorers.

     

    It is known Statoil has already conducted sea floor surveys as part of its preliminary commitments in its licence, as well its planned acquisition this summer of at least 3500m of 2D seismic data, utilising a TGS-Nopec vessel.

     

    Again, it is likely to be a similar story when Schlumberger is granted its GSB prospecting licence – shooting various seismic surveys, including one for the joint venture headed by Shell Exploration NZ and another for the Woodside Petroleum-New Zealand Oil & Gas consortium.

     

    Meanwhile, off Taranaki, the jack-up Ensco Rig 107 continues its year-long Maari-Manaia development campaign that includes the future drilling of another extended reach Manaia well for field operator Austrian company OMV and its partners Todd Energy and Australian juniors Horizon Oil and Cue Energy Resources.

     

    Further north the semi-submersible rig Kan Tan IV is still drilling the Ruru Prospect in the southeastern corner of the Maui gas field for partners Shell Exploration NZ, Todd Energy and Austrian giant OMV.

     

    The Ruru prospect was believed to be one of the best pockets of bypassed gas so far identified within the Maui mining licence, with natural gas targeted in the Eocene-aged Kapuni Formation, principally the C and D sands, and perhaps the deeper F sands that flowed about 35 million barrels of crude oil from almost 10 years from the mid-1990s.

     

    And the modular offshore drilling unit (MODU) Archer Emerald has been demobilised and taken off the Maui A platform during late October after a largely successful campaign involving four sidetrack wells targeting previously untapped pockets of gas. All these wells were drilled utilising lighter aluminium piping, as opposed to the more traditional steel drill pipe.

     

    There are also unconfirmed rumours that Singapore's Loyz Energy is planning to utilise the Ensco rig to drill a well in the offshore Awakino-Mokau area though there still are a lot of uncertainties to be worked through during the next 12 months.

     

    And UK-listed junior Kea Petroleum had been due to commit to drill an onshore well in the Awakino-Waikawau area north of New Plymouth, probably to test an onshore-offshore prospect, but has gained government approval to defer that for 12 months.

     

    Meanwhile, land rig owner-operator MB Century is moving Todd’s “Big Ben” rig from the Mangahewa E wellsite back to the Mangahewa D wellsite as part of Todd’s $800 million Mangahewa Expansion Project involving the drilling and horizontal hydraulic fracturing of up to 27 development wells.

     

    And it is believed Todd is also progressing its so-called “MEP2 compression" project at the McKee-Mangahewa production facilities, with earthworks scheduled to start in November.

     

    Canadian listed juniors TAG Oil and East West Petroleum started the Cheal-E (JV-6) well from the Cheal E wellsite (within production licence PMP 38156) in early November but plan to deviate the well into the nearby PEP 54877 licence. Afterwards, TAG alone plans to drill the Cheal-E7 and 8 wells from the same wellsite.

     

    The third Canadian listed junior New Zealand Energy Corp is awaiting the arrival from Houston of a jet pump unit to help it complete its workover of Waihapa-2 well utilising the small Rival Energy workover rig. NZEC’s share of oil production from the Copper Moki, Waitapu and Ngaere fields, plus the Toko-2 well, continues to creep up from an average of 205 barrels per day (bpd) during September to 214 bpd in October.

     

    As well, UK-listed Mosman Oil & Gas has indicated two of its three wells at its West Coast Petroleum Creek Project, Cross Roads-1 and Crestal-1, are being prepared for an extended period of pumping that is required to determine the sustainable flow rates of the shallow wells near Greymouth.

     

    Mosman has also said it has applied for four additional exploration permits offered in the 2014 Petroleum Blocks Offer – the results of which are expected to be announced by Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges before Christmas.

     

    Finally, continuing overseas interest in the country’s exploration and production sector is illustrated by Worley Parsons subsidiary Intecsea moving into New Zealand alongside its parent company. The offshore technology provider will seek to generate full wellhead-to-market offerings for customers through integrated full-field development solutions.
    8 Nov 2014, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • tullii
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1thj74S
    25 Nov 2014, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • tullii
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » First week of Dec 2014 usually by dec 5 we should have an update on the production in Taranaki. The oil well Waihapa 2 is expected to add production when it's back online, expect net to NZEC of upto 60 BBLS from this well. It was offline due pump installation... if all goes well they will break above the break even point of 237 barrels per day before year end.
    27 Nov 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
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