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Michael A. Gayed, CFA
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA, winner of the 2016 Dow Award and 2015 NAAIM Wagner Award, is chief investment strategist and co-portfolio manager at Pension Partners, LLC., an investment advisor which manages mutual funds and separate accounts according to its ATAC strategies. Prior to this role, Gayed... More
My company:
Pension partners, llc
My blog:
Pension Partners Blog
My book:
Intermarket Analysis and Investing: Integrating Economic, Fundamental, and Technical Trends
  • Week In Review – March 4, 2012 1 comment
    Mar 4, 2012 2:49 PM | about stocks: SPY, USO, IEZ, XLE, VWO

    "It starts with a single sound. If there's something in that sound, then it's worth continuing." - Steve Lacy

    Markets rose again this week after the second successful round of the European Central Bank's Long Term Refinancing Operation, sending Italian and Spanish bond yields lower. Cheap money, extra liquidity, and more time for Europe to solve its longer-term structural debt problems continue to provide market participants with optimism about the near-term. Consumer confidence increased to levels not seen in a year, as a growing sense of hope builds in terms of investor psyche in spite of rising Oil prices. The reflation theme I continue to stress in my writings, which is the idea that 2012 could end up being similar to 2003 and 2009 for risk assets, still looks to be very much in play. Ed Dempsey and I spoke about this in a recent episode of Bloomberg Rewind, which can be seen at http://mobile.bloomberg.com/share/video/9sdXFtMzplrbHfYoNlwq_ynfWn6QVeIy, and is on a separate note actually quite fun and hilarious to watch.

    I've been addressing quite a bit last week that inflation expectations continue to rise in spite (or because) of oil. On Monday I did a quick segment on the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange alongside Bloomberg anchor Matt Miller discussing the relative performance of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (OTC:TIPS) relative to nominal bonds, and what underlying intermarket bond trends are signaling (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/87219610/). So long as rising Oil prices are steady and not spikey, it likely would increase cost-push inflation expectations. This in turn likely means money would be forced out of low yielding bonds and into risk-assets like the stock market.

    In addition, it is very important to note that while we are told continuously that rising Oil prices will cause an economic slowdown and break the stock market rally of 2012, there are a number of inconsistencies with this idea and the behavior of price. On Friday, I did a segment of Chart Attack with Adam Johnson in which I highlighted the performance of Retailers relative to the S&P 500, with that price ratio reaching new all-time highs. I encourage readers to view the segment at http://www.bloomberg.com/video/87603568/. Adam Johnson did a phenomenal job setting up the segment and allowing me to explain the idea that the rhetoric on rising Oil prices is inconsistent with strength in Retailers more broadly.

    As to our ATAC (Accelerated Time And Capital) models, we remain in "risk-on" mode with exposure primarily to overseas equities. While stocks have already staged a significant rally so far in 2012, the conditions and inputs that go into our investment models we use for managing client accounts are still favoring equities over bonds. U.S. markets internally may be in a period of slight weakness given what appears to be a near-term end to leadership in small-cap stocks, but the outlook remains positive for overseas equities which still have more room to run to undo some of the damage done last year.

    Our Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS) annual verification is now complete, and we should be able to update the performance results of our ATAC Composite profiles on our website by the middle of March. I encourage those who are thinking about putting money to work to reach out to us. We believe we can provide a true alternative approach to buy and hold investing through our buy and rotate ATAC models.

    Sincerely,
    Michael A. Gayed, CFA
    Chief Investment Strategist
    Pension Partners, LLC
    www.pensionpartners.com
    Twitter: @pensionpartners
    YouTube: youtube.com/pensionpartners

    Advantages of Pension Partners, LLC Managing Your Portfolio:

    1) ATAC - strategy designed to buy and rotate, not buy and hold

    2) Performance comparable to hedge funds without being one and with lower fees

    3) Liquidity and transparency through the use of ETFs

    4) Ease and security of using Fidelity

    Summary of Writings Published Last Week:
    The Lead-Lag Report: Market Pause or Correction Coming? - http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/energy/articles/market-trends-technical-analysis-stock-market/2/28/2012/id/39633

    Why Gold's Collapse Does Not Signal an End to Reflation -http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/s2526p-500-gold-trust-etf-gold/2/29/2012/id/39671

    We're All Wrong About Oil -
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-all-wrong-about-oil-2012-03-02?link=MW_TD

    Oil is the New Greece -
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-the-next-greece-type-negative-2012-02-27

    Europe's LTRO-infused Rally May Have Legs - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europes-ltro-infused-rally-may-have-legs-2012-02-29

    Japan and the Importance of the Yen -
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/395251-japan-and-the-importance-of-the-yen

    Junior Gold Miners Pushing for Leadership -
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/402381-junior-gold-miners-pushing-for-leadership

    This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

    Stocks: SPY, USO, IEZ, XLE, VWO
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  • Tas 2010
    , contributor
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    I agree with your logic of higher oil prices bring a higher market. Back in 2009 when oil traded in the 30's I felt strongly that oil would force this market higher. Sellers can move this market all over the place, but oil is different. If you're not offering a fair price someone else will. Despite what others think, oil is now the only market in the world that is truly representative of its underlying value. That basically puts a floor under the worldwide markets.

     

    Just my thoughts.
    4 Mar 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
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