Seeking Alpha

Michael A. Gaye...'s  Instablog

Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Send Message
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, winner of the 2014 Dow Award and 3rd Place Wagner, is chief investment strategist and co-portfolio manager at Pension Partners, LLC., an investment advisor which manages mutual funds and separate accounts according to its ATAC (Accelerated Time and Capital) strategies.... More
My company:
Pension Partners, LLC
My blog:
Pension Partners Blog
My book:
Intermarket Analysis and Investing: Integrating Economic, Fundamental, and Technical Trends
  • Week In Review – March 18, 2012 4 comments
    Mar 18, 2012 7:52 PM | about stocks: SPY, IWM, EEM, EFA, FXI

    "The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall." - Vince Lombardi

    Markets rallied again last week given a slew of positive news that forced risk assets higher as scared money got scared of missing further gains in equities. The global reflation theme I have continued to stress since the beginning of the year is only now starting to be believed. Greece has defaulted, and there has been literally no effect on investor sentiment. As I said emphatically in my CNBC segment (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000077302), the markets already discounted Greece in price. The thing everyone has been waiting on has happened, and now the Dow is over 13,000, NASDAQ 3,000, Nikkei 10,000, S&P 500 1,400, etc.

    By far the most consequential aspect of last week's market action was the release of the Fed's stress test results for major banks. When news crossed that the majority of banks passed, Financials which I have argued are key to the bull market this year literally soared as money get comfortable with financial institutions. Banks have lagged the broader stock market for three years now, and have only recently begun to show leadership with much more room to go based on historical analysis. Major banks are now increasing dividends and initiating stock buybacks, all of which is very bullish. This is not an opinion - the market itself dramatically sold off defensive areas in the days following the stress test results. I addressed this on Bloomberg last Friday (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88516434/). Treasury bonds broke especially hard as yields spiked. For the first time this year, the bond market seems to now be scared that it may be wrong after all about the future state of the economy.

    Our ATAC (Accelerated Time And Capital) models which we run for managing client accounts continues to keep us "risk-on" in equities, which as followers of my writings know is how we positioned following the first week of January. Ed Dempsey, Chief Investment Officer of Pension Partners, discussed our positioning on Bloomberg Thursday in a segment when can be viewed at http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88446002/. While it looked like we may have been headed towards a potential correction, market internals dramatically changed following Tuesday in a way not seen since the first week of January. This suggests a second leg higher may be coming shortly. Following the Summer Crash, Fall Melt-Up, and Winter Resolution, I believe I can now begin writing about what the Spring brings.

    Our performance results for our three ATAC strategies are now available on our homepage at www.pensionpartners.com. The results are through the end of February, and continue to show that we are a true alternative to buy and hold investing when compared against hedge funds (even though we are not one). Our Aggressive Composite in particular has done quite well since inception, and we remain optimistic on what's to come for broader markets and our buy and rotate strategies. Feel free to reach out to us anytime if interested in learning more about how we operate and our strategies. We pride ourselves on being open and transparent about our firm and our investment management services.

    Sincerely,
    Michael A. Gayed, CFA
    Chief Investment Strategist
    Pension Partners, LLC
    pensionpartners.com
    Twitter: @pensionpartners
    YouTube: youtube.com/pensionpartners

    Advantages of Pension Partners, LLC Managing Your Portfolio:

    1) ATAC - strategy designed to buy and rotate, not buy and hold

    2) Performance comparable to hedge funds without being one and with lower fees

    3) Liquidity and transparency through the use of ETFs

    4) Ease and security of using Fidelity

    Summary of Writings Published Last Week:
    The Lead-Lag Report: Market Offers Signs of a Correction - http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/bond-market-consumer-staples-consumer-staples/3/12/2012/id/39860

    Investors Now Loving Stocks More than Gold -
    http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/Gold-asset-class-stocks-Dow-Jones/3/14/2012/id/39894

    Transports Now Signaling a Buy -
    http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/articles/transports-dow-transports-dow-industrials-industrials/3/16/2012/id/39931

    Stock Correction Odds Rise, and It's Okay -
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-correction-odds-rise-and-its-okay-2012-03-13

    The Role of Financials in a 40% Move -
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-financials-see-a-40-move-in-2012-2012-03-14

    Scared Money Gets Even More Scared -
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scared-money-gets-even-more-scared-2012-03-16

    Dow Theory Reversal As Transports Weakness Nears Its End - seekingalpha.com/article/427021-dow-theo...

    Preferred More Preferred Than Treasuries -
    seekingalpha.com/article/433971-preferre...

    This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

    Themes: macro outlook, week in review Stocks: SPY, IWM, EEM, EFA, FXI
Back To Michael A. Gayed, CFA's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (4)
Track new comments
  • DAG1996
    , contributor
    Comments (3066) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff, Michael. I hope you're right as we could sure use a sustained period of good news after the last few years we've had.
    18 Mar 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I hope you are correct. I am very very long right now and haven't sold anything in weeks.
    18 Mar 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • change is the only constant
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    Michael-

     

    The Bloomberg video is a good one to watch. Good theme explanation, clear commentary and concise.
    19 Mar 2012, 04:08 AM Reply Like
  • Michael A. Gayed, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (1340) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for reading and watching guys.
    19 Mar 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.