Michael A. Gayed's  Instablog

"I have learned, that if one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life he has imagined, he will meet with a success unexpected in common hours." - Henry David Thoreau

Nothing like the best week in 2 years to bring back animal spirits now is there?

As followers of my writings and Pension Partners know, we have gotten a lot of major market calls right this year, with dated proof on articles explaining the reasonings before events actually took place. Back in February, we correctly argued that markets would undergo a "deflation pulse" when Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report published an article I wrote for him alongside his Monthly Commentary. In April, called for a top in Silver 2 days before the historic decline. In June, called for a Summer Stock Market Crash. In early September, called for a major decline in Gold one week before the big drop. Now, after having been bearish all year, we are calling for a "Fall Melt-Up" and have published articles for why on SeekingAlpha.com, MarketWatch.com, Minyanville.com, and ETFTrends.com. We have done a few live interviews making the case. Barry Ritholtz whom I have written for before and whom I have tremendous respect for featured on his popular site the Big Picture an interview Edward Dempsey, Chief Investment Officer of Pension Partners, had on the Daily Ticker with Aaron Task making the case for new highs this year:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/video-ed-dempsey-cio-of-pension-partners/

Bloomberg also interviewed me last week discussing why the conditions were ripe for a Fall Melt-Up following the Summer Crash:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-14/u-s-stocks-may-rally-to-highest-level-this-year-gayed-says.html

Although nothing is guaranteed, the conditions according to our analysis and buy and rotate models do suggest that the probability for such a move into the end of the year are quite high. I mentioned in last weekend's newsletter that our ATAC models positioned us into risk-on mode, which appears to be correct so far. We remain positioned in equities until our models tell us otherwise. I need to stress here that we first wrote about the potential for a Fall Melt-Up on September 29th. I have no doubt that certain Strategists are now making bullish calls, even though none called for the Crash in the Summer as we did, nor were ahead of this advance. I also want to emphasize that we use backtested quant models in the management of our client accounts, and the results of those models are available on our website pensionpartners.com.

For those who have contacts in the media, and those who are interested in our alternative thinking and investment strategies, please reach out to us. We are confident you will find us to be a very different manager.  On another note, we likely are going to launch our own Weekly Video program online on YouTube in an effort to get more exposure and grow. There is no point to making our macro calls unless more people know about us and are willing to consider a true alternative manager to put their portfolios to work with.

Sincerely,
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Chief Investment Strategist
Pension Partners, LLC

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.