Marco Hickey's  Instablog

As posted previously in my blog, ETF's are some of the safest securities to purchase when planning on investing. An even more conservative way to buy ETF's is to write covered calls on them once purchased. Writing call options allows you to get some of your investment back immediately and gives you some downside protection, however if the stock really takes off you cap your upside.

The buy/write option strategy seems ideal when purchasing diversified ETF's. This is because diversified ETF's are less volatile than purchasing specific stocks (however leveraged ETF's are extremely volatile and as I state here I don't believe are investment vehicles).

I have put together a list of 80 ETF's (yes 80!) and calculated each of their % probability of expiring above the indicated strike, as well as the % return if they expire above the indicated strike. The list below is sorted alphabetically, and all options are for the July expiration (July 18, 2009). All strike prices are near the money unless indicated they are in the money (IN $).

Below is a list of the 80 Exchange Traded Funds. (All data priced as of pre-market Thursday June 4, 2009).

The July options expiration has 44 days left. Some people use the buy/write option strategy to write in the money covered calls and capture a 3% gain. If you write an in the money call every 2 months and happen to be called out every time, this would yield a return of 18% annually, not to mention dividends and capital gains distributions. The likelihood of continuously getting called out month after month is not too realistic, but not impossible either (and of course it depends on both the strike price and stocks volatility). For more information on options pricing, probabilities, and trading click here.

Among these ETF's are some which are very volatile such as the (TNA) and the (FAS), and some less volatile such as the (DIA) and the (SPY). As you'll see the greater the volatility of the underlying stock, the higher % return. You will also notice calls written in the money have a higher probability of expiring above the indicated strike (this should make sense).

Of these strategies I am most interested in the: (FAS), (IWJ), and (ERX). For one I am bullish on the underlying stocks (more reasons discussed on my blog), and their return % and probabilities of expiring above the indicated strike are both above the average for my analysis of these 80 ETF's.

For spreadsheets of these ETF's listed in order from least to greatest % returns, least to greatest % probability of expiring above indicated strike, and the average for both click

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Disclosure: Long DIG, SSO, UYG, FAS, FAZ, TNA, BGZ, UCO