Seeking Alpha

Tom Au, CFA's  Instablog

Tom Au, CFA
Send Message
In the early 1990s, during the middle of a secular bull market, I began work on "A Modern Approach To Graham and Dodd Investing," that was not particularly suited for the decade of the 1990s, but was ideally suited for the following "Lost Decade" of the 2000s.
My book:
A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing
  • Re-Election of Iranian Hardliner Spells Hard (Political) Times 7 comments
    Jun 14, 2009 2:34 PM

    The President of Iran won re-election for President in a landslide, after the votes were counted over the weekend, more than two to one over the nearest opponent. But there were charges of vote-rigging even by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden who questioned the fairness of the election.

    Our problems in Iran started in 1954, with the CIA-led overthrow of the democratically elected Communist Mohammed Mossadegh. (Democracy is democracy, even to capitalists like us, who find Communists and Communism distasteful.)  His replacement was the more "acceptable" restored Shah of Iran, who was in turn overthrown in 1979 by Mullahs led by the Ayatollah Khomeni. Since then, "Ayatollan" goverment has been the rule in Iran.

    The United States was "luckier" in Chile, in 1973, with the CIA-led overthrow of the democratically-elected Communist, Salvador Allende (who would almost certainly have lost the 1976 elections), on "9/11," 1973. .(yes, Chile had its 9/11 28 years before ours.) After fifteen years or so of dictatorship, the country managed restore a genuine democracy. But that only left it where it had started.

    But the Iranian's path seems clear. First, he will have his secret police "sweep the streets" of domestic opposition. When he is done with that, he will turn his attention to the foreign problem. Just like a German dictator did about 75 years ago. And in possession of weapons that the German dictator dreamed about, but never had.

Back To Tom Au, CFA's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (7)
Track new comments
  • Jeff Nielson
    , contributor
    Comments (2464) | Send Message
     
    G&D, I'm VERY suspicious when I hear accusations of "vote rigging" coming out of Western media outlets (and governments) against Iran.

     

    First, with more than a 2:1 victory margin, either he would have won easily, anyway, OR there would have to have been such MASSIVE fraud that it would be totally apparent to the whole population.

     

    That would have been TERRIBLE tactics. Much better to engage in only enough fraud to secure a victory - without destroying credibility.

     

    I think what is FAR more likely is that this was NEVER a close race, with the dynamics of the election being fabricated by Western governments solely to support the post-election propaganda.
    14 Jun 2009, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • yellowhoard
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    The Israelis would have had to show a patina of willingness to negotiate and accomodate a new regime in Iran.

     

    Now, it'll be bombs away.

     

    The world is getting very dangerous, very quickly.
    14 Jun 2009, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • nova
    , contributor
    Comments (569) | Send Message
     
    It is quite interesting that all these "democratic" colonial powers responsible for centuries of depriving other nations of their freedom and dignity continue to insist on interfering in other countries domestic affairs.

     

    May be the USA should stop the Iraq occupation and slaughter of its people before even thinking about giving democracy lessons to others.

     

    As for Israel, early or later, it will pay an appropriate price for its terrorist policies.
    14 Jun 2009, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Market Sniper
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Agreed there nova. I am all for the abandonment of empire. Not what this country is all about supposedly and it does run counter to our nature as a country. I totally agree. We should leave the middle east alone. You, however, might not like the outcome as Israel would turn most of it into a glass factory. But I agree. We should leave the corrupt Saudi government to the tender mercy of the mullahs in Iran, leave the Europeans to the tender mercy of the Russian bear under thug Putin and as for that pimp in North Korea, let the mandarins and the Japanese deal with him. Abandon Empire. Restore the Republic!

     

    On Jun 14 06:14 PM nova wrote:

     

    > It is quite interesting that all these "democratic" colonial powers
    > responsible for centuries of depriving other nations of their freedom
    > and dignity continue to insist on interfering in other countries
    > domestic affairs.
    >
    > May be the USA should stop the Iraq occupation and slaughter of its
    > people before even thinking about giving democracy lessons to others.
    >
    >
    > As for Israel, early or later, it will pay an appropriate price for
    > its terrorist policies.
    14 Jun 2009, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6784) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You know, something, Jeff? You might be right.

     

    That's not exactly the conventional (American) wisdom. But wisdom is not always "conventional," to paraphrase Warren Buffett.

     

    On Jun 14 04:37 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:

     

    > G&D, I'm VERY suspicious when I hear accusations of "vote rigging"
    > coming out of Western media outlets (and governments) against Iran.
    >
    >
    > First, with more than a 2:1 victory margin, either he would have
    > won easily, anyway, OR there would have to have been such MASSIVE
    > fraud that it would be totally apparent to the whole population.
    >
    >
    > That would have been TERRIBLE tactics. Much better to engage in only
    > enough fraud to secure a victory - without destroying credibility.
    >
    >
    > I think what is FAR more likely is that this was NEVER a close race,
    > with the dynamics of the election being fabricated by Western governments
    > solely to support the post-election propaganda.
    15 Jun 2009, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6784) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dear Yellowhoard:

     

    Good comment also.

     

    On Jun 14 05:36 PM yellowhoard wrote:

     

    > The Israelis would have had to show a patina of willingness to negotiate
    > and accomodate a new regime in Iran.
    >
    > Now, it'll be bombs away.
    >
    > The world is getting very dangerous, very quickly.
    15 Jun 2009, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Jonathan Liss
    , contributor
    Comments (484) | Send Message
     
    The whole talk of whether the vote was rigged or not is moot - the entire election is rigged as only 'suitable' candidates pre-approved by the mullahs are allowed to run and their power is extremely limited after being elected. 2 wrongs don't make a write - past colonial offenses don't deprive the Iranian people of their right to free speech and the right to live as they please.
    17 Jun 2009, 08:15 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Greece is crashing. China is crashing. What next?
    Jul 6, 2015
  • Europe's flying. Bought TEF and CEDC.
    Jan 3, 2012
  • Gold stocks didn't follow the underlying metal upward. Might be the thing to own when the metal rises again.
    Aug 30, 2011
More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.