Tom Au's  Instablog

Do you think that it was an accident that the events of the 1930s followed, those of the 1920s, and that those  of 1940s followed both decades?  We don't. Because  similar things happened earlier in American history, and a similar cycle may be unfolding as we speak. The order is that a secular triumph is followed by an economic depression, which it turn spawns a major war.

Revolutionary War Cycle

Secular triumph 1755-1764, victory in the French and Indian war. British America extends to Mississippi.

Economic Depression 1765-1774 Stamp Tax, Tea tax, Intolerable Acts "No taxation without representation."

War: American Revolution, 1775-1783.

Civil War Cycle

Secular triumph 1836-1848, Wars with Mexico. Annexation of Texas, California, and Oregon Territories. Manifest Destiny realized.

Economic Depression 1850-1859 Railroad revolution was a cause, not a palliative.

War: Civil War, 1861-1865.

World War II Cycle

Secular triumph: 1918 Victory over Germany, exhaustion of Allies. U.S. world's sole superpower, followed by "Roaring Twenties."

Economic Depression 1930-1939. Radio revolution, "new economy" and resulting bubbles was a cause, not a palliative.

War: World War II, 1941-1945.

Current Cycle

Secular triumph 1991 Persian Gulf War, collapse of the Soviet Union. U.S. world's sole superpower, followed by "Roaring Nineties."

Economic Depression 2008-? Internet revolution, "new economy" and resutling bubbles were a cause, not a palliative.

War: With China?.