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Alan R. Goozner During the 1994 Peso crisis, I started an e-mail newsletter. This followed from my comments to Mexican interest groups and list servers on the rapidly expanding Internet. The newsletter became a copyright publication : "The Mexican Commentary." This had a limited paid... More
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  • GMK - Gruma Worry Over Venezuelan Nationalization 1 comment
    Dec 29, 2009 9:06 AM
    WSJ Story on the Venezuelan "take over" could continue to do damage near term. Even with a complete Nationalization it only comprises 20% of the business. Worry could drive it down sharply however - more than 20% from its December peak.

    Facts do not support Nationalization - the culprit in the matter is a minority partner/holder. They need the continuation of corn meal production. If the minority holder is squeezed out, the company may come out of it with a larger stake.

    Near term results should not be impacted - profits should continue to flow to the bottom line.

    A further 9-10% drop in the stock price would discount complete Nationalization. Any good news could infer that business would continue as usual and would pressure the short sellers to pop the ADRs up by more than $1.

    I look for further immediate decline and a slower rebound to follow if not immediately, some time soon into the New Year unless good news comes to pop it back up faster.


    I hold GMK ADRs in all of my investment accounts and continue to view it as an excellent way to participate in North America's fastest growing economy.  I have been a recent purchaser of shares in a cost average up strategy



    Disclosure: I am long GMK
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  • Advill
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    It seems that your only investment is Gruma , it could be interesting to have your comments in other mexican ADRĀ“s.

     

    Rgds
    31 Dec 2009, 01:31 PM Reply Like
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