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Alan R. Goozner During the 1994 Peso crisis, I started an e-mail newsletter. This followed from my comments to Mexican interest groups and list servers on the rapidly expanding Internet. The newsletter became a copyright publication : "The Mexican Commentary." This had a limited paid subscriber... More
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  • GMK Q Report 1 comment
    May 2, 2010 6:19 PM | about stocks: YY

    Recent Q report and worry over Venezuela has taken its toll.  What is being missed is that their overall business is stable or growing slightly on a volume basis. 

    I question the decline in margins. 

    With a declining corn price during the quarter, would inventories now be valued lower?  And, with the current quarter's decline in inventory, is it due to decreased stocks of grain or more so from lower priced inventory?  The margin decline, is it due to first in first out inventory accounting where the higher cost of grain at the start of the quarter was not adequately hedged?  Then with lower corn prices can we expect margins to again expand?

    We need to wait for a pencil pushing analyst to give some answers.  If my suspects are true, this was not as bad a quarter as the market is saying in punishing the stock price.

    Bottom line - this could be the last grand opportunity to add to positions.

    As for myself, I have a full position and want to see some price increase to sell as prices advance later this month when my initial purchases are in the long-term holding column.

    Disclosure: Long

    Stocks: YY
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  • MexCom
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    Author’s reply » GMK - I believe that the recent fear this past Spring was a complete takeover. Now, if the assets are not to be seized, there will be no write-off and no sharp decline to earnings this year. The recent stock price discounted a complete takeover IMHO. Still very speculative but upside could be interesting in today's more buoyant market.
    15 Jul 2010, 09:09 AM Reply Like
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