Stephen Mayo's  Instablog

Stephen Mayo
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Somewhere between disaster and "more of the same" is the world we all live in today, and it may go on in this same state for our lifetimes. No black swan, no collapse, no implosion of the Republic. Because there is no knowing I have given up trying to know or predict. I have one goal. Survival... More
  • What To Do In A Wacky Economy? 0 comments
    Oct 30, 2013 11:08 AM | about stocks: WMT, SO, DBD, T, O, ADC, OXY, SYY, WBA

    This time in the market cycle is probably the hardest to navigate for buyers of dividend stocks.

    Many of us have the same goals; find a good business, one with a track record, good dividend growth history, good business future, and acquire it at a price we deem fair. Some of us will choose to pay the frieght and go with actual valuation, some will wait until there is a bargain valuation, and some of us will pay over-value if we like the future prospects well enough.

    With AT&T (NYSE:T) yielding about 5%, and Three M (NYSE:MMM) at about 2, and Exxon (NYSE:XOM) at 2.8, there seem to be many good companies to choose. Their prospects, in general are bright, if still fraught with the normal ups and downs of business. Many have plenty of cash. With the consumer appearing weak, some even seem to eek out decent returns anyway. Thank you WMT.

    But I am having a hard time because I want to build a portfolio of strong companies like these, except there is the matter of the markets being at very high levels, historic highs.

    Since no one can predict the future I can't tell if the market will go on to 30,000 acting as a place where assets can be protected, or if it will fall to 6,000, in an echo of '03 and '09.

    On one hand, companies seem to have cash, decent business, and low interest rates, while on the other hand the Fed appears to be the primary buyer of Federal debt, and we are easing untold gazillions into the economy every year. And consumers and home buyers are really not telegraphing their direction too well.

    If anyone can offer a reasonable assessment of the future, how to play the risks, and where to put our hard earned money, there would be many grateful DGI investors.

    Disclosure: I am long WMT, WAG, T, SYY, SO, COP, DBD, O, ADC.

    Stocks: WMT, SO, DBD, T, O, ADC, OXY, SYY, WBA
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