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Stephen Mayo
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Somewhere between disaster and "more of the same" is the world we all live in today, and it may go on in this same state for our lifetimes. No black swan, no collapse, no implosion of the Republic. Because there is no knowing I have given up trying to know or predict. I have one goal.... More
  • Silver Bulls: Downtrend Still Winning 5 comments
    Jun 4, 2014 8:30 AM | about stocks: SLV

    There are some really good articles on silver and gold here on Seeking Alpha at the moment. The one's I like the best are bullish. And I am a precious metals bull. I own both physical and paper (via AGQ) and some miners.

    So, as a "bull" why am I bearish?

    That's easy. It is because I am also a chart guy. Many metals people are.

    So here is why I am bearish.

    The downtrend line is longer, is more powerful, and has been tested more than the support line. The support line shows little energy as compared with the down-force of the downtrend line.

    When the price action clearly breaks the downtrend line, I will review, and perhaps change my feelings. Until then, the bear dominates, as I see it.

    *Source: My favorite chart site: BigCharts.com

    Disclosure: I am long AGQ, SLV.

    Additional disclosure: I am modestly long several miners as well as AGQ and SLV.

    Themes: agq, slv Stocks: SLV
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Comments (5)
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  • EdwardjK
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    I neither down silver or miners. But I have been watching silver prices for about 6 months, and reading lots of commentary about the likely direction of silver prices (up, down, sideways in the short, medium and long term).

     

    Finally, this is the first silver article that makes sense to me. Well done.
    4 Jun, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stephen Mayo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you!
    4 Jun, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • dcranes@cox.net
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    That chart tells me silver went from 10 to 50 in a very short time. Already there is an obvious bottom at the cost to mine.
    that bottom is over $20 and more than double the highs of
    a few years back. I bought at $6.
    And there are also the irrepressible premiums, that precurse a breakout. I am in for the long term but I think silver will assert a new bottom at $30 PDQ. mining costs and industrial uses will support $30 right now. So, I see silver at $30, even without a crunch on fiat money. That seems like good insurance. dlc
    16 Jun, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen Mayo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you!

     

    The bottom has indeed held through yesterday. (June 16, 2014)

     

    The tops are still inside the downward wedge, however. One "rule" is the closer prices get to the tip of the wedge the weaker they get. Meaning the odds of a downward resolution increase.

     

    However, the little jump up inside the wedge was strong, so I am still saying lower is possible, higher in the longer term.

     

    Congrats on owning at $6!!!!!
    17 Jun, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stephen Mayo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Today clearly broke the downtrend line. I'd expect a snap back in order that the bears can yack on foolishly. If there is a snap back, it could be the last great buying opportunity for a while.

     

    I am long AGQ, PSLV.
    19 Jun, 03:11 PM Reply Like
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