"If you look at the CAPE (cyclical adjusted price to earnings) the market is registers (SIC) a reading of 27(anything over 15 is overvalued). We're now as overvalued as we were in 2007. The only times in history that the market has been more overvalued was during the 1929 bubble and the Tech bubble," Phoenix Capital says.
Chart: www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Apart from the grammar fail, Phoenix Capital may or may not be reliable as an investment advisor, but their point is interesting.
My fear is that crowd sourced investment advice has one critical flaw, not obvious at first. A bullish bias.
We know brokers and analysts tend to have a bias toward buying, but perhaps Seeking Alpha contributors do also.
Look at how few bearish arguments there are, and look at how the ones that exist are received. Yet here we are at what appears by any number of measures to be a bull run of epic proportions.
What is the one thing we know? Don't bull markets pull in the public in the last phase of their expansion?
Personally, I think we are in for a middle class crushing, bone grinding, bear market that turns out to be a real mess.
I think, if crowd sourcing is to be of any real benefit, we need to share, discuss and educate each other on ways to defend ourselves.
So, how are you planning to defend yourself?