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Marty Chilberg
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I'm a retired CPA who spent the majority of his working career in technology companies. My work included management stints at Atari Inc, Daisy Systems Corp, Symantec Corp and Visio Corp. My last position at Visio (VSIO) was as CFO and VP Finance and Operations.
  • Sequenom: T21 Prenatal Diagnostic Test Trend 1 comment
    Jun 10, 2012 9:35 AM | about stocks: SQNM

    Sequenom has provided several data points that are proving very useful in analyzing their experience with the newly launched MaterniT21+ test. The press releases can be found on their corporate website for anyone interested.

    Specifics:

    1) The test was launched late in 2011 with results first processed during the week ended 10/22/11.

    2) During 2011 Sequenom processed in excess of 1,000 tests.

    3) For the first 2 months of 2012, the company processed over 2,500 tests.

    4) The tests processed during the week ended 3/3/12 represented an annualized rate of 20,000 which was 2x that of the week ended 12/31/11.

    5) During the week ended 3/31/12, the annualized number of tests processed exceeded 30,000. The total number of tests processed during the Mar-12 quarter exceeded 4,900.

    6) For the week ended 4/28/12, the annualized number of tests processed was in excess of 45,000.

    7) The total number of tests processed through the week ended 5/12/12 exceeded 10,000 for the calendar year to date.

    8) Annualized run rate was > 60,000 as of 5/28/12 (Jefferies conference).

    9) The company has also stated that high-risk pregnancies totaled approximately 750 thousand of the 4.3 million annual U.S. births annually. Per the table below, this appears to be referencing the birth rate for 2007. This puts the high-risk percentage at around 17.5% of the total annual births.

    Here is what a search for U.S. births shows for the past 10 years:

    Notes

    1) Average births between 1995 and 2002.

    2) MaterniT21+ estimated tests processed per month using company data. Info assumes 4 calendar weeks ended Saturday for January, February, April and May. March is a 5 week month. 4/4/5 system used to align with company press releases. May is projected based upon trend and info released by company through 5/28/12.

    3) Tests as estimated percentage of total birth market. Percentage assumes test is done in 3rd month of pregnancy.

    4) Tests as percentage of High-Risk market which is estimated at 750,000 out of 4.3 million births in 2007.

    5) Tests as percentage of MSS annual processed market. This is estimated at 2.6 million per Verinata.

    U.S Births per month penetration

    Month

    1995-2002 ave

    Note 1

    T21

    Note 2

    %

    Note 3

    Risk%

    Note 4

    MSS

    Note 5

    Jan322,7511,0350.31 %1.81 %0.52 %
    Feb301,1961,4650.42 %2.41 %0.70 %
    Mar330,6772,4050.68 %3.92 %1.13 %
    Apr317,2273,0500.89 %5.10 %1.47 %
    May334,2324,2501.26 %7.23 %2.09 %
    Jun328,671    
    Jul348,587    
    Aug351,698    
    Sep342,604    
    Oct336,824    
    Nov316,520    
    Dec328,942    
    Total3,959,928    

    Disclosure: I am long SQNM.

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Comments (1)
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  • Author’s reply » Update note: Verinata announced the early response to their competitive LDT, Verifi. They launched on 3/1/12 and today stated: Caren Mason, CEO of Verinata Health continued, “In addition to the data we will be presenting at ISPD, we are very pleased with the initial market acceptance of the verifi™ prenatal test. Our clinical laboratory has already processed more than 1,100 verifi™ prenatal tests in just the initial weeks of operation and we are seeing an increasing run rate week to week.

     

    It will be interesting to see how this tracks going forward. SQNM launched mid Oct-11 and did over 1000 tests by year-end. Verinata looks like it did roughly the same number of tests and mirrored SQNM statement of test volume increasing weekly.
    31 May 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
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