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Steve Reitmeister
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I am the Executive VP of Zacks Investment Research in charge of Zacks.com and all its services for individual investors. I have a top down investment approach with a focus on value and upward earnings estimate revisions. And there is nothing I enjoy more than sharing insights with fellow investors.
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  • When Good Ain’t Good Enough 0 comments
    Sep 30, 2010 5:21 PM | about stocks: MOO, JOY, RYE, IYM, PHO
    Thursday started off with a bang and ended with a whimper. Investors initially celebrated Q2 GDP improving a notch to +1.7% and Jobless Claims coming in better than expected at 453,000 new claims.
     
    But as the market flirted with Dow 11,000 the “air got pretty thin up there”. Perhaps at that point enough investors pondered whether +1.7% growth is actually a good reading for this stage of the economic recovery. Or perhaps they also realized that jobless claims have been around 450,000 all year long. Making the new reading not so special.
     
    So at the height of jubilation someone took out a pin and popped the intra-day bubble. From there we quickly retreated into the red and stayed there.
     
    This reminds me of this clip from yesterday’s commentary:
     
    “To be honest, it all seems too easy of late. Unfortunately that creeps me out sometimes that the rug will get pulled out from under us.”
     
    The morning rally just seemed insane and I bet a lot more folks got sucked in. And sure enough that is just when the rug got pulled out. And why I think it will be hard to surmount Dow 11,000 without some mightily convincing economic data that makes some hardcore double dippers turn a new leaf and agree that it won’t happen. I don’t think the data is convincing enough for that crowd just yet.
     
    Friday we have some more economic news for investors to digest including Personal Income & Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, and ISM Manufacturing. Once again, I don’t think that the recent mediocre showings will be enough to keep this rally alive. We need clearer signs of improving economic growth. That may be right around the corner with Alcoa kicking off earnings season on October 7th.
     
     
    My Two Cents
    (During the day I read many other investment articles of interest. Here are links to some new ones with my 2 cents added underneath).
     
    I am reminded once again that economics is a soft science. Meaning non-exact. So we have experts looking at the same information and saying that it will create polar opposite results.

    Its kind of like the country is trying to defuse a bomb and some experts say cut the red wire and the others scream cut the blue.

    Who is right and who gets blown up?
     
    Equities Update: Finish in Red Barely Nicks 7%-12% September Gains
    2010 is the George Costanza market. At one point he realized that everything he did was wrong. So if he did the exact opposite of his natural instinct, then he would always be right.

    That seems to be the best way to profit this year. Or how else do explain the current heights of the market. And how we could rally in the early AM from +1.7% GDP growth and the same old, same old 450K new jobless claims???
     
    I've been on board with MOO for a few years in my long term account. The basic theme is that more of the world is becoming developed. So with that they will want more food, more shelter and more water.

    MOO covers food.

    Shelter = natural resources of all stripes and a million ways to play that. RYE, IYM and JOYG being some my favorites.

    And water = PHO.
     
    Here is the only logical explanation. The Chicago Bears are winning and employees are more productive.
     
    Best,
     
    Steve


    Disclosure: I own MOO, JOYG, RYE and IYM
    Stocks: MOO, JOY, RYE, IYM, PHO
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