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  • 2013 Retrospective: My Inaugural Year Of Biotech Blogging 3 comments
    Jan 9, 2014 8:48 PM | about stocks: CYCC, NKTR

    I'm a novice in personal investment. I've always been an amateur at most everything I've done that's brought me pleasure in life. The word amateur is derived from the Italian "amator" meaning "lover", and "amare" meaning "to love." When one gets paid to do something they love it's both gratifying and a curse.

    Gratifying because there's public recognition and a small quarterly check. A curse because it's difficult enough for me to live up to my own expectations let alone yours. It's important however, for you to remember that I'm a blogger and not a financial advisor. I absolutely insist that you make this differentiation because you will be less inclined to express irrational disappointment as a result.

    My articles this past year were a joy to write. Some of the best, didn't make the publishing criteria of the editors or deadlines of relevance. That said, those that did make the grade scored equally well in the eyes of investors as the graphic below clearly indicates.

    (click to enlarge)

    These stocks on a buy and hold basis from the date of publication have returned investors a good bit of money. And it's important to note that none of my articles led investors down a blind alley to significant loss.

    In point of fact, I warned investors against binary disasters facing those holding long positions in Delcath (NASDAQ:DCTH), Aveo (NASDAQ:AVEO), GTX (NASDAQ:GTXI), Cytokinetics (NASDAQ:CYTK) and Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) weeks and sometimes days before the stocks plummeted 65 to 70%. There is however, no joy in doing this as investors always question your motives never thinking you might have their best interests at heart.

    I've put together a short video primer covering investment in the biotechnology sector. It deemphasizes catalysts because that's the first thing that every biotech investor acquaints themselves with and latches onto.

    This year begins with my largest personal holding in Cyclacel (NASDAQ:CYCC) and a growing but smaller position in Nektar (NASDAQ:NKTR). I plan to provide more video companions to each article that I author this year. You'll find them on YouTube at ScryingBiotech.

    It's my hope that together, we can expand our knowledge and consequently, our profits by learning from each other along the way.

    I thank you for your investment in my words and for your encouragements and criticisms over the past year. Hopefully, they'll serve to make me better in this year ahead.

    Michael Webb

    Disclosure: I am long CYCC, NKTR, .

    Stocks: CYCC, NKTR
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Comments (3)
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  • Samuel-
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    Great year for Scrying Biotech. Success ratio of this biotech blog is extraordinary, possibly 'best in class'. Very nice upside for followers, and thank you for all the warning calls before disasters; You should receive most responsible author award, had there been one.

     

    Cheers!
    10 Jan 2014, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • hatvani
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Michael, thanks for your update. I follow SGYP for awhile now, have a good size position in my portfolio and remember your positive article from August. Do you still maintain the same sentiment on the stock?
    13 Jan 2014, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • Scrying Biotech
    , contributor
    Comments (1784) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey there! Thank you for checking in Hatvani. Because you asked, I've taken a renewed reading on the stock and this is what I see.

     

    I believe there were sincere attempts to find a buyer and those are ongoing. As I mentioned in the article, I thought those would be significantly more difficult than others were suggesting, and I still do.

     

    The fortunes of Synergy are in a strangely symbiotic but diametrically opposed relationship to those of Ironwood. By that I mean, as Ironwoods market success vacillates, Synergy's moves chaotically sometimes with it and sometimes in opposition.

     

    While it's great the Linzess does better in the marketplace thereby making Synergy's path to commercialization cheaper, it also makes it harder to compete against them. So one day the stock surges up in lock step and the next it falls when Ironwood's rises.

     

    This confuses investors and potential buyers of the company as well. I think the stock will be what it is now and possibly rise a bit - complacently perhaps. There will be some worry this quarter regarding the obvious catalyst events but that should be wasted energy as the likelihood of success far outweighs the small chance of failure.

     

    In Q2, I believe the company will declare a victory of sorts and the stock will surge up. How high, I'm not sure.

     

    It's going to require a little bit of strength as holding any biotech stock does but I believe ultimately, you'll be rewarded for hanging on in Q2.

     

    What do you think, Hatvani?
    13 Jan 2014, 05:24 AM Reply Like
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