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Seeing with one eye helps me filter out the noise. Those I follow help me see the forest as well as the trees.
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » She was right, I was wrong, its not going to be the same thing guys. but I'll keep up as best I can.
    29 Aug 2009, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    One Eye: It seems any comment that had a reply from someone else wasn't expunged. Here is another example:

     

    Just a quick observation about that Bernstein quote: The summer months are almost over and it was a particularly cold summer.

     

    On Aug 14 07:06 AM Freya wrote:

     

    > Ripskii: very nice, scanned it and came up with two diverging arguements.
    > One for long term Low Prices, another for high prices almost immediately:
    >
    >
    > "Contrary to the negative forecast for natural gas prices, the analysts
    > at Bernstein Research recently issued a report arguing that the base
    > production of U.S. natural gas is declining at an annual pace of
    > 30% in 2009. They believe that if the U.S. gas rig count remains
    > flat for the balance of this year, gas production from December 2008
    > to December 2009 will be down by 10.5%, implying in their view a
    > switch from an oversupply of 1-2 Bcf/d to an undersupply of 4-5 Bcf/d.
    > Since they believe gas supply will decline sharply in the summer
    > months, they expect gas prices to rise during the second half of
    > 2009."
    >
    > I find exhibit 11 to be particularly telling. But most of all, there
    > is another ingredient missing in the Bear case, the associated costs
    > are starting to rise (commodity increases in the Base Metals sector)
    > and the Junior players are finding additional constraints in the
    > form of funding due to low prices.
    >
    > Can nonconventional supply carry the entire load if both Conventional
    > Onshore and Offshore supplies decrease by 30%?
    29 Aug 2009, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG: I'm talking only about those comments posted on her Instablogs. Those are gone, all of the ones in the Swine Flu Instas...Poof.

     

    Please read my Insta on Freya's Death. She was terminated because she found him commenting on his Population Control belief as part of the Solution and another series of lies tied to the Energy Policy. He used the Environmental bit on CO2 as a stepping stone, the immediate push to CNG vehicles as a rallying cry and used Aliases to knock down opposition.
    29 Aug 2009, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh well, that Population Control comment is no longer there. She says she included it, that it was there. But I can't find it. Go Figure. Maybe that's what had to be erased.
    29 Aug 2009, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Preliminary analysis of the effects of H1N1 (Swine Flu) on the US Economy

     

    Preliminary look:
    I looked at three themes. First I tried to size the economic disruption. Then I looked at the anticipated time of the economic disruptions. Then I looked at what areas would most likely suffer disruptions.

     

    Magnitude of potential US economic disruption:
    Based on the IMF estimate of 2009 global GDP of 54.863 trillion dollars, the swine flu pandemic, using the World Bank simulation, could cost the global economy between 384 billion dollars and 2.633 trillion dollars.

     

    "In the case of a serious flu, 70 percent of the overall economic cost would come from absenteeism and efforts to avoid infection," World Bank experts wrote in the Global Development Finance report released in June.

     

    ca.news.yahoo.com/s/af...

     

    The US accounted for about 23% of the Worlds GDP in 2000. A few things have happened since then, so using a rough estimate of 20%, that means US GDP dropping anywhere from 77b to .5 Trillion.

     

    (I remember when I always used a capital B for billion. Now it seems like lunch money).

     

    Looking at those estimates as a percent of projected 2009 US GDP (forecasts.org/gdp.htm), the effects range from decrements of .5% to 3.8% in US GDP.

     

    This is from a second source:
    In a “mild-pandemic” scenario… about 100,000 would die [and] the pandemic would reduce real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by about 1% relative to what would have happened without the pandemic. In a “more severe” scenario … two million people would die in the United States; in CBO’s estimation, real GDP would be about 4.25% lower over the subsequent year than it would have been had the outbreak not taken place (the link for this is after the next para).

     

    This relates to the effects form a previous outbreak SARS:
    Damage from the SARS outbreak in 2003 was greatest to economies that rely heavily on travel and tourism. Travel and tourism in the U.S., both by U.S. citizens and foreigners, amount to about 2% of GDP, or $200 billion in 2003.

     

    blogs.wsj.com/economic...

     

    Summary:
    The numbers look close enough for government work. Potential economic disruption appears to be in the range of .5% to 4% of US GDP depending on severity of outbreak. Average is 2.3% reduction.

     

    Timing of Economic Disruption:
    US Flu season starts in November and often extends into March. The underlying infection distribution is not normal. It peaks in February. I remember reading something about a potential double peak somewhere, but I could not find that reference again.

     

    cdc.gov/flu/about/seas...

     

    Economic issues related to avoidance.
    Looks like travel and entertainment are going to be hit hard. Cruse ships, air travel, entertainment venues (movies / concerts), resorts and restaurants.

     

    Shopping / malls should be adversely affected.

     

    Productivity should take a hit. There is not much people can do about offices except wear masks, wash hands, and spray everything in sight.

     

    Schools - Irrespective of the governments claim that closing schools will make it worse, I say BS. Hard hit schools are going to be closed, and as YH mentioned, that means some working parents are going to be missing work, more productivity losses.

     

    Shutdowns - There is a potential for some service shutdowns depending on the severity of the outbreak. For example, a large number of sick air traffic controllers could shut down airports and have regional effects. What happens to the NY subway system if a large number of engineers / systems supervisors are out? What happens at the NY stock exchange? Lots of wild cards here.
    30 Aug 2009, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    On the Definition of an H1N1 Dose
    Something that has confused me concerns the meaning of the word "dose". I thought a "dose" was the quantity of a drug taken on one time basis. But the way the term is being used by many of the news sources is that a "dose" represents the total quantity of vaccine required to provide immunity. This link suggests it might take two administrations (doses?) of some H1N1 vaccines to impart immunity.

     

    medicalnewstoday.com/a...

     

    So if 45M "doses" of vaccine will be available in the US by October -

     

    medicalnewstoday.com/a...

     

    - does this impart immunity to 45M people, or 22.5M people?

     

    The definition of a single word is such a simple thing, yet the difference in meaning could have significant ramifications. I note that the SVA H1N1 vaccine requires only one administration to impart immunity, but I suspect all of their production will be purchased by China.
    30 Aug 2009, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    This is a copy of a comment form one eye on my dose comment. I am duplicating it here because I am deleting my blog on the subject in order to centralise comments. One eye's blog structure is much better than mine was.

     

    From one eye in response to my "dose" comment
    What SVA produces is for H1NI, what Alabama has is AH1N1, the UK is looking for H1N1, France is ordering AH1N1.

     

    Novel H1N1 = AH1N1

     

    Its a matter of Potency too, a single dose may be enough for a Kid, but an adult may need two or more. There just aren't any guidelines.

     

    When you click that link, go to the Left. Click Swine Flu, it will update the Page automatically. At the top of the page, you will see the varieties running around, its a good way to keep tabs on whether new Mutations have surfaced.

     

    On the right, if you click the Map, granted its old, but You can see where it was back then. Take a Look at the Coast of China. Once I saw it, I no longer wondered why inbound Cargos were sitting offshore.
    30 Aug 2009, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    H1N1 and other Variants Investment Categories

     

    Categories of Investment Plays:
    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play

     

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:

     

    III - Population Avoidance:

     

    1) Production Method / Capacity plays:
    (NVAX)
    NVAX reached a manufacturing milestone for their H1N1 strain employing proprietary production technology which is not dependent on growing influenza virus in eggs. They have developed proprietary recombinant cell culture technology which enables production of custom VLPs (Virus-like particle ) against a strain of influenza. This milestone was accomplished in only 12 weeks after receiving the gene sequence for the H1N1 strain from the U.S. Center for Disease Control.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    Is it "pie-in-the-sky?
    (NVAX) announced its initial agreement to license its proprietary, recombinant virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine technology to ROVI Pharmaceuticals (Madrid: ROVI) of Spain. ROVI will use the VLP technology to create a comprehensive influenza vaccine solution for the Spanish government under a new 60 million-euro program sponsored and led by the Spanish Ministry of Health and other government groups to develop pandemic and seasonal flu vaccines and establish its only in-border facility.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    I believe that is game changing technology. The new production technology changes the game because it provides large surge production capacity aka "Just In Time" manufacturing. Chicken egg technology requires long lead times and large on the shelf inventories.

     

    (VICAL)
    Vical announced that the company successfully completed second-year milestones under a $6 million grant awarded in 2007, and is advancing with the development of a DNA vaccine manufacturing process named "RapidResponse" with the potential to produce several million doses of vaccines in a matter of days. That RapidResponse system is designed to allow extremely rapid and large-scale production of DNA vaccines with low capital requirements. Once again, this represents game changing technology.

     

    If these production methods are successful, I suspect both of these companies could be acquisition targets. Their Mcaps are small change for the big boys ( as of 8/28/09, VICL 231M, NVAX 506M).

     

    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play
    (SVA), a leading provider of vaccines in China, announced that the clinical trial of its A/H1N1 influenza vaccine is proceeding well. All of the volunteers have received their first shot of the vaccine, preliminary tests on the A/H1N1 influenza vaccine have indicated that the vaccine is safe and reliable in humans.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    From Sinovac Biotech Limited Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    "One of the most important initiatives that we have been focused on lately is production of a vaccine against H1N1 influenza A virus. Since the onset of the global outbreak of this virus, back in April ’09 Sinovac has earned a great deal of recognition from local and national governments and health agencies for our efforts to help prevent and control the spread of this virus. As China's only approved manufacturer for a pandemic influenza vaccine H5N1, we had the fully integrated human vaccine development expertise and the manufacturing capability necessary to quickly produce a vaccine for H1N1".

     

    From ChinaBio Today:
    Sinovac Biotech (NYSE: SVA) has been selected by the Public Health Bureau of Beijing to be one of four vaccine companies that will supply the city with seasonal flu vaccine for 2009.

     

    Sinovac’s shares responded to the news by opening 20% higher, though they gave about half that gain back in subsequent trading. At mid-session, Sinovac is up 61 cents at $6.46, a 10% gain. In the past 12 months, Sinovac has traded from a low of $.75 to today’s high point of $6.98.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    SVA's vaccine is produced using the 'egg" method, BUT, it is available now. The play here is based on two factors. Population size, and likely preference to use a national company.

     

    SVA is a winner, the only question for stock owners is at what point should you take profits?

     

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    Its doubtful that everyone is going to have access to the vaccine. So there are going to be a lot of sick people, some of them seriously ill. (See above post in this blog entitled " Preliminary analysis of the effects of H1N1 (Swine Flu) on the US Economy".

     

    NexBio, Inc. announced today the publication "DAS181 Inhibits H5N1 Influenza Lung Virus Infection of Human Lung Tissues" in the September, 2009 issue of the journal Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (AAC).

     

    DAS181 is a novel broad-spectrum drug candidate for prophylaxis and treatment of respiratory infections by all variations of influenza virus, including the types of the virus that may cause a potential influenza pandemic. In addition, DAS181 also has the potential for prophylaxis and treatment of influenza-like illness due to other respiratory viruses, including the parainfluenza virus which may cause serious respiratory illness similar to influenza for which there is no approved vaccine or therapeutic. The DAS181 development program is funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    UNFORTUNATELY, NextBio is a private company. HOWEVER note the following

     

    Cambrex Corporation (CBM) is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, Cambrex Bio Science Baltimore, Inc., has manufactured and delivered NexBio Inc.’s Fludase® (DAS181), a cGMP bulk drug substance, for use in clinical trials. Cambrex implemented and scaled up the manufacturing process and necessary assay technologies to provide the bulk drug substance in order to meet NexBio’s clinical timeline.

     

    “We are very pleased with Cambrex’s performance on this project, which was completed on time under current Good Manufacture Practice conditions,” commented Mang Yu, Ph.D., President & CEO, NexBio, Inc. “We would certainly recommend Cambrex to any biopharmaceutical company for cGMP manufacturing services that are required for drug development programs.

     

    www.biocompare.com/New...

     

    Since NexBio was pleased with CBM's performance in manufacturing Fludase® (DAS181) for them, it seems likely that CBM would have the upper hand if this product gets approval. This appears to be a more speculative play.

     

    III - Population Avoidance:
    This play concerns behaviours designed to avoid catching the flu.
    Not just any mask will do. You need N95 respirator masks or better. A lot of companies offer these, for example 3M.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    Several Clorox products are effective against flu virus

     

    www.bosworth.com/sub/n...

     

    Lots of investing opportunities here… if you find something interesting, please post it.
    30 Aug 2009, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    So glad you're taking over for Freya's H1N1 thread. We lost a bazillion bits of Nobel-prize worthy insight, there.
    30 Aug 2009, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    I figured to have about 60 comments that got "poofed" in that thread. Even my sardonic quip about West Viginia's population soaring due H1N1 got axed.
    30 Aug 2009, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had made copies of Freya's insights! Does she blog anywhere else?
    30 Aug 2009, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    What's passed has passed. Nothing we can do about it. But I'd keep checking in here. Maybe all of us together can seance back the dead.
    30 Aug 2009, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4771) | Send Message
     
    It's good to have even a remnant of what was there, but the truth is that we will never be able to duplicate what was lost. I certainly wish we could.
    30 Aug 2009, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Life is hard and then you die.

     

    A relay from Conan/Freya: "we expected something like this to happen eventually, Fitzsimmons has a Friendly Preferential SA Staff. Conan was Zapped and certain comments deleted but he was Pre-Insta. We Never expected the total annihaltion which occurred and are sorry for geting your comments Zapped as well.

     

    Our guess is that The Instas were too incriminating, not only to Mr. MF but to SA for allowing "Freedom of Speech" to some but not to Others at their discretion.

     

    Thanks People for your support"

     

    User283: Freya's Swine Flu Blog will continue under my hand but will be renamed to Swine Flu. I can't do the same job, because between the two of them they had around 80 years of Investment Experience. They could rattle stuff off from memory and poke holes into almost everything.

     

    Combine a Physic/Math degree with Tech Analysis before it became fashionable, Using McGee and Mansfield Charts with a Degree in Business, Investing through Value Line. 35 years of cantankerous Bliss.

     

    My Sister, also an attorney, married Conan's best friend and Business partner some 20 years ago. I was resurrected from retirement.

     

    A bunch of Retirees with time on their hands. What more could you ask for?
    We are on the Hallelujah Trail, The American Way, with Liberty And Justice for ALL.
    30 Aug 2009, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The latest link is not the newest but it talks of the Tamiflu Resistant strain so I included it.
    31 Aug 2009, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    SVA is up again today on the following news

     

    BEIJING, Aug 31, 2009 /PRNewswire-Asia via COMTEX/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NYSE Amex: SVA), a leading provider of biopharmaceutical products in China, announced today that Sinovac's H1N1 vaccine has passed the experts evaluation organized by State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA). The vaccine is expected to obtain the production license within this week.

     

    custom.marketwatch.com...={F03E1F9B-FB1E-4A99-B...

     

    As of this post its up $1.51 per share
    31 Aug 2009, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, that link is not working... here is a replacement link

     

    www.cnbc.com/id/32625236
    31 Aug 2009, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    I am starting to take profits on SVA..
    31 Aug 2009, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    User: I hope not too much. SVA's a bucking horse I don't want to get off of, yet.
    31 Aug 2009, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    One Eye: Interesting H1N1 link.

     

    healingzone.info/silver/
    31 Aug 2009, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    (SVA) exploding today. Great to be in front of that one!
    31 Aug 2009, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    I looked at the link associated with SILVACIN - Surely if it was that easy, don't you think it would be immediately picked up by the entire world? After all it kills all flu viruses --- on contact.

     

    The laboratory tests performed at the UCLA School of Medicine in 1988 concerned the use of ionic silver solutions as a disinfectant, not as a drug to be taken internally. It probably does kill flu virus on contact, but Injecting yourself with Lysol will not protect you from the flu. To be approved as a drug by the FDA a manufacturer must go through clinical trials… when were the clinical trials conducted? The claim is its FDA approved… I could not find SILVACIN on the FDA data base in either the drug OR supplement categories? www.fda.gov/Drugs/defa...

     

    I looked at the picture at the bottom of that link… We have a mysterious black box that plugs into the wall with leads coming out, a plastic spoon, a large non-labelled brown bottle .. what do you think that thing is in the middle of the picture? Is that a syringe? I am surprised the box does not have blinking lights too…
    31 Aug 2009, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    User: Glad you came to the same conclusion I did about that link. I won't be melting down my tea set.

     

    Just sold all but 50 shares of SVA for a 50% pop. If it was you who turned this column on to SVA, hugs and kisses! I don't care if you're a guy or not!
    31 Aug 2009, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Great Maya! I was wondering if you have a rule of thumb as to when to sell a stock? What do you look at that tells you its time to sell? Also, why did you keep the 50 shares?
    31 Aug 2009, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Some of us own JAG and I own RBY. How about we set up a junior gold mining instablog like this swine flu one… than we can all concentrate our junior gold mining info there.
    31 Aug 2009, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Rule Number One: Sell any stock up over 40% in one day!

     

    I kept 50 shares on the trading board so I can make sure this stock doesn't run away on the upside without me getting back in. I may jump back in late, today. Not sure yet. And I most certainly will not own as many shares. Right now I have a 50% gain in my pocket. So likely the greatest no. of shares I'll buy back is 50% of what I sold, less any increase over the $9.14 selling price. SVA is not much higher than that right now.

     

    I keep track of over 500 stocks daily, so I always have a small amount of a stocks on the board that I'm interested in, such as (CLX), up on this loser day. Another H1N1 play!

     

    Today, I sold off a lot, and accumulated cash, while re-establishing very small postitions in some of the downtroddened Chinese stocks, like (YGE), (APWR), and (CHU).

     

    What's really in my head is that tonight is Fantasy Football Draft night. Paying more attention to that today, than the market.
    31 Aug 2009, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Great idea, User!

     

    Do it before I steal it!

     

    You know (JAG) is my favorite. We could also talk about REE's there, too.
    31 Aug 2009, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    Maya, 283977---Congrats to you two and whoever went with you on SVA. You nailed that one. And if the flu sickness manifests itself in a big way over the next several weeks, there could still be more upside. I had a hunch that if I did a little talking and a lot of listening to you (Maya, YH, OG, Mono, Guns, Freya, 283977, Mark Bern,etc.),on your Instas, that there would much to gain and little to lose. That assessment appears accurate.
    31 Aug 2009, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Another trading method I use is that if I'm tracking a stock and it's say 10:15, I'll usually wait until 10:45 to pounce. Typically, the market "rests" between 10:15 and 10:45. I rarely sell during that half hour.

     

    Same goes for 1:15 to 1:45.

     

    Nothing's in stone, though. SVA was moving up during that half hour today, before the ~ noon pop.

     

    My mock pick is nearing; back to FF.
    31 Aug 2009, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Go ahead and post it Maya you have a name :) and the JAG association is a sign. I am working on a brief review of the area.
    31 Aug 2009, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the ata boy Swash!!
    31 Aug 2009, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Those were very helpful rules of thumb Mata. I particularly liked the buy back guideline.
    31 Aug 2009, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User283/maya: remember Freya's inclusion of Silver strands inside her sterilized face mask? Personally, I thought she was operating with one oar on that.

     

    Along comes User with his "Ionic Silver Solutions".
    Damn, I wish that stream was still available.

     

    DblGuns: Do a Search, Freya,Neodymium. The conclusions drawn in the Article are totally different from her now gone post. I have a Subscription to the same Report and can summarize what was lost. Do You want it posted as an Insta?

     

    31 Aug 2009, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Swash: Its all about making money. Ever hear of the MoneyMap Report Newsletter?

     

    The Following is a list of their Global Investing Team:

     

    Keith Fitz-Gerald
    Horacio Marquez
    Shah Gilani
    Martin Hutchinson
    Mary Anne Aden
    Pamela Aden.
    Chris Weber

     

    Its not expensive, and you get a lot of Bang for your Buck.
    Keith made a comment in part of a Summary which should shake you up a bit but should not be a total Surprise Either:

     

    Is China Buying or Selling US Debt? They are selling it, it only appears like Debt is being bought by Foreigners. The Treasury Dept has changed the way US Debt is accounted for when its purchased on the Open Markets.

     

    US Debt, being sold on the open markets by say, the USA, China, Japan, Europe can all be considered as Being Bought by "Foreigners" even if the Purchaser is The Federal Reserve. The old Switcheroo, They can be made to appear to be buying when they are selling.

     

    This little tidbit, is worth the Subscription all by its lonesome.
    1 Sep 2009, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just clicked you link, Thanks loads, I really appreciate another Nail in my coffin. Remember to put silver strands in your sterilized Face Mask, Can't hurt.

     

    I really mean what I said above, I thought she had thrown away both Oars when she suggested that. Now it looks like it will help.
    1 Sep 2009, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    One Eye: I love you, babe, dude, whatever. Tell your hubby/wife that! Jus' mess'n.

     

    Next investing idea we as a group should look at is REE's ( Rare Earth Elements). China's dominating this arena. This area of stocks will explode. Check out Jack Lifton's instas.
    1 Sep 2009, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    And then I see your Insta? WOW! Same page we are on!
    1 Sep 2009, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its not all bad news, the latest update signalling the end of the Latin American Flu season appears to indicate a slowdown in H1N1 as well.
    1 Sep 2009, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    check out Caledonia Mining Corporation CALVF
    1 Sep 2009, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Next batter up? (NVAX) Another great one to be in front of.
    1 Sep 2009, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Unrelated: Bulls are going after Sequenom (SQNM), betting that the Downe Syndrome test recieve FDA approval. Stock's down pre-market, but shot up over $1.00 yesterday. SQNM is down .44 pre-market. Keep one eye on this one.
    1 Sep 2009, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mono
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    again my equity oriented ideas related to swine flu are about as productive as a one footed duck...but maya...youve been hitting triples and homers for the past week!

     

    great stuff kiddo
    1 Sep 2009, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, but it's really all do to this column.
    1 Sep 2009, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    Thanks one eye.

     

    On Sep 01 12:04 AM one eye wrote:

     

    > Swash: Its all about making money. Ever hear of the MoneyMap Report
    > Newsletter?
    >
    > The Following is a list of their Global Investing Team:
    >
    > Keith Fitz-Gerald
    > Horacio Marquez
    > Shah Gilani
    > Martin Hutchinson
    > Mary Anne Aden
    > Pamela Aden.
    > Chris Weber
    >
    > Its not expensive, and you get a lot of Bang for your Buck.
    > Keith made a comment in part of a Summary which should shake you
    > up a bit but should not be a total Surprise Either:
    >
    > Is China Buying or Selling US Debt? They are selling it, it only
    > appears like Debt is being bought by Foreigners. The Treasury Dept
    > has changed the way US Debt is accounted for when its purchased on
    > the Open Markets.
    >
    > US Debt, being sold on the open markets by say, the USA, China, Japan,
    > Europe can all be considered as Being Bought by "Foreigners" even
    > if the Purchaser is The Federal Reserve. The old Switcheroo, They
    > can be made to appear to be buying when they are selling.
    >
    > This little tidbit, is worth the Subscription all by its lonesome.
    1 Sep 2009, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4771) | Send Message
     
    One Eye - I have been suspecting something of nature for a few months but haven't been able to trace the transactions nor evaluate the methodology. This is really worrisome. No wonder the Fed is so adamantly fighting an audit. If the public knew what was really going on the charade wouldn't last. Of course, even if the information from an audit were available, the MSM would probably find a way to spin the story to the public and make it all seem to be in the best interests of America.

     

    So, if I have this correctly, the US Federal Reserve is the buyer of much of the US debt that is reported as having been purchased by foreign entities. That would mean that the Fed has actually expanded its balance sheet by far more than previously imagined. I wonder what magic they use to account for this anomaly? It does make sense though, from a purely logical standpoint. After all, what foreign entity would continue to purchase US debt in the publicized amounts when interests rates are at historical lows? Everyone knows that eventually the long-term Treasuries will have to drop in value as interest rates rise. Those rates cannot stay at these levels forever. So, if the Fed is the buyer (on behalf of the taxpayers; inevitably) we are borrowing from ourselves with printed money to buy bonds that will need to be paid in the future with tax dollars. I mean, I know the Fed is not part of the government and that it is owned, for all practical purposes by the major banks, but for even a minute thinks that the banks are going to pay those bills in the future? No, wait! Those are investments that the banks Fed will be holding. And we, the taxpayers, will owe the banks even more in the future than we ever imagined! So, the banks really are going to be okay because they are ending up owning America?
    1 Sep 2009, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bern, only on the Open Market, but the Auctions themselves have seen the Fed's helping hand too.

     

    I shoved in an old link intra-day above. How about a Bubonic/Swine Flu combo?

     

    Chinese Health Authorities must be absolutely Paranoid by now. No wonder there is an Inventory Build, Ships still waiting to be unloaded, Rare Earth stockpiles, etc.
    1 Sep 2009, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX)
    This is likely the reason for the pop in Nvax this morning.

     

    NOVAVAX Announces Positive Results for the Second Phase II Clinical Trial of its Trivalent Seasonal Influenza Virus-like Particle (VLP) Vaccine Candidate Strong Safety and Immunogenicity Data Pave the Way for Phase III Trials

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    1 Sep 2009, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, User: I bailed on NVAX this morning @ 9:53 AM @ $7.43. Great pop to my account. Hoping others here enjoyed the surge!

     

    The last two days I've been selling like a madman. Lots of articles here on SA and elsewhere are talking the pullback is occuring now. With the DOW down 145.86 right now, has me more scared than one of Swash's doves.

     

    Typically, September is historically good for gold. But what I see is the (JAG) shares I own are down 8.45%. Only gold stock I follow that's up is (XRA).

     

    1 Sep 2009, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mono
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    maya-

     

    keep looking at that jpy/gbp. filled my shorts last week with a tight stop on the s&p. the move gave me wiggle room and moved my stop to my entry point so 9% with no risk.
    1 Sep 2009, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    (DGX)
    This is one of the stocks mentioned by Maya's broker that was in the lost instablog.

     

    This is from August 21, 2009.
    The recent outbreak of the swine influenza virus H1N1 subtype has led to a need for rapid detection and accurate surveillance of the spread.

     

    Focus Diagnostics Launches 2009 H1N1 Flu Test Kit To Commercial Laboratories In The U.S. Focus Diagnostics, the infectious disease diagnostics business of Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (NYSE: DGX), announced that its Influenza A H1N1 (2009) Real Time RT-PCR test is now available as a test kit for use by "high complexity" clinical laboratories in the U.S.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    The chart on DGX is all over the place. A buy at $51, sell target $55?
    1 Sep 2009, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Here's an interesting piece on tantalum- a master's thesis written in canada a few years ago- lists some companies-I'm gonna check them out.
    [PDF]
    Comprehensive strategic analysis of the tantalum industry
    1 Sep 2009, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    The link didn't work. here's my second try:
    ir.lib.sfu.ca/retrieve... - Similar
    1 Sep 2009, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    the guy's name is joel jeangrand and the report is called
    [PDF]
    Comprehensive strategic analysis of the tantalum industry.

     

    I don't know why the link doesn't work.

     

    On Sep 01 08:26 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > The link didn't work. here's my second try:
    > ir.lib.sfu.ca/retrieve... - Similar
    1 Sep 2009, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    Post it here.

     

    On Aug 31 11:33 PM one eye wrote:

     

    > User283/maya: remember Freya's inclusion of Silver strands inside
    > her sterilized face mask? Personally, I thought she was operating
    > with one oar on that.
    >
    > Along comes User with his "Ionic Silver Solutions".
    > Damn, I wish that stream was still available.
    >
    > DblGuns: Do a Search, Freya,Neodymium. The conclusions drawn in the
    > Article are totally different from her now gone post. I have a Subscription
    > to the same Report and can summarize what was lost. Do You want it
    > posted as an Insta?
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    1 Sep 2009, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    OG another link you posted about the rassmussian.c did not work either. I left a post for you to resend the link.

     

    Is anyone else having issues with links?. I haven't tried one lately to know.
    1 Sep 2009, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • 437339
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Re

     

    Check out rare element resourses Ltd

     

    RRLMF , I bought about 2 years ago , has the largest rare earth resourse in North America "mountain pass " Prior to todays crash , was up over 300 % . ALSO has JV with Newmont Mines on their gold holdings , but no JV on rare earths .
    1 Sep 2009, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Essentially China has an almost insurmountable monopoly on REEs.
    15 of them: Best known and use:
    Lanthanum and cerium Increase refining yields by 10%/brl, "mischmetal".
    Neodymium Permanent Magnets: Computer Hard Drives, DVDs,
    DVRs, electric motors, regenerative braking, Power
    Windows, Windsheild wipers, Sound systems, etc.
    Our World as we know it.

     

    Chinese exports have decreased by 8% each year over the past 3 years. They say they have closed mines for "environmental" reasons. But if you build your Facilities in China, they promise adequate supply. China 58%, rest of world 42%. And trying to secure whats left. There are no non-Chinese sites with significant processing and refining capacity.

     

    Recycling is nonexistent because of the Longevity of the Permanent Magnets.
    Therefore, what you get out of the ground, is all you have for future supply.
    They control the Rare Earth Markets.

     

    Mountain Pass is mentioned.

     

    My problem with investing in US based properties is Nationalization because of National Security.

     

    2 Sep 2009, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Molycorp Minerals (Mountain Pass) is Private, one of the Investors is Goldman S.
    2 Sep 2009, 04:28 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Nice review on (NVAX)

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    2 Sep 2009, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Great link, User. Then, I Iearn today that there were two NVAX downgrades! How the eff do you downgrade a stage two testing stock that's going to save many lives, going to keep many from becoming ill? I suspect Wall Street is gaming this stock. I might jump back in tomorrow, or Friday.

     

    One Eye: Congrats on your new medallion! I would not at all be surprised if the US went Chavez on REE's. Problem is that the US is so dolt-ish that they likely don't understand the value of Rare Earth Elements.

     

    2 Sep 2009, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya
    I think NVAX and VICL are introducing game changing technology. The chicken egg production method is too slow with respect to ramp-up and production speed. The new methods amount to fast track prototyping and manufacturing methods. Once these new methods are approved as safe, companies relying on egg production methods are going to see their businesses shrink. They have to shrink because the name of the game in disease control is speed.

     

    At this point in time, I suspect NVAX and VICL could be acquisition plays. About one third of their respective shares are held by institutions, and the NVAX short shares have recently increased by about 8%. I think you are right about Wall Street gaming, particularly of NVAX. It seems that downgrading a stock would be a good way to drive the price down so the players behind the scenes can grab them up on the cheep.

     

    I took some profits on NVAX, but I am now re-acquiring it. I learned that trick from you guys. I am still holding VICL. I guess the question from a trading perspective is how long do you tie up your capital waiting for something to happen when there are other deals to be made now? That question does not seem to naturally arise with a buy and hold approach.
    2 Sep 2009, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    RBY is up 10% today... I don't know why its up today. The good news about a 21% increase in strike length of the F2 gold system significantly expanding their potential occured a few days ago on 8/31.
    2 Sep 2009, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Holy cow.. volume on RBY is through the roof!
    2 Sep 2009, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    User: The deal now is gold mining stocks, especially the juniors. Of all the gold stocks I watch, (JAG) is up the most, 17%.

     

    Except for the departed Freya's fav, up 18.5%.

     

    I'm waiting until tomorrow to get back into (NVAX). Same with (SVA).
    2 Sep 2009, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Its good to be ahead of the deal! :)
    2 Sep 2009, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    That was Nova Gold (NG), that's up now 19,64%

     

    I bought some New Gold (NGD) earlier.
    2 Sep 2009, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Now I understand why Biosante (BPAX) did not get the pop that NVAX and SVA did during the previous trading sessions. In the mail today came a Harry Potter thick booklet from BPAX.

     

    Turns out that Biosciences is in the process of merging with Cell Genesys. A special meeting will be held at the Lincolnshire, Illionois BioSante Hdqrs. on Sept. 30th (I wonder if all the shareholders will be wearing surgical masks by then). The vote is to approve the merge.

     

    Also, this was in the book about the meeting: "To consider and vote upon a proposal to approve an amendment to BioSante's certificate of incorporation to increase the number of shares of BioSante common stock BioSante is authorized to issue from 100 million to 200 million shares and to increase the number of shares of BioSante capital stock BioSante is authorized to issue by 100 million, to reflect the increase in the authorized BioSante stock."

     

    Quite the run-on sentence, there. But at least we as investors now know the scoop.

     

    I'll, grrr, scan the rest of the ~ 150 pages and will report back here if I learn anything of significance.
    2 Sep 2009, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    With gold up over $980 it's going to pull the miners up with it.
    Here is commentary from Mineset that speculates it's a short squeeze:
    jsmineset.com/
    2 Sep 2009, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    That explains a lot OG. Gold went up 22 today, and RBY went up by fifty cents. So RBY moves about 2.3 cents per point of general market gold levels. That gives me a rule of thumb that isolates business related moves from gold market moves. Excellent!
    2 Sep 2009, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    A brief business overview of BioSante (BPAX):

     

    Besides BioSante's recent announcement of the adjuvant they have that has a 100% effective rate of treating H1N1 virus in an animal study, I've learned a little more about this pipsqueak bio firm.

     

    Other products in the pipeline:

     

    -LibiGel: Once daily transderma gel in Phase III clinical development under an SPA for the treatment of female sexual dysfunction

     

    -Elestrin: once daily transdermal estradiol (estrogen) gel approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration indicated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms (hot flashes) associated with menopause and marketed in the U.S.

     

    -The Pill-Plus (triple hormone contraceptive) once daily use of variopus combinations of estrogens, progesogens and adnrogens in development for the treatment of FSD in women using oral or transdermal contraceptives.

     

    -BioT-Gel: once daily transdermal testoterone gel in development for the treatment of hyogonadism, or testosterone deficiency in men

     

    My vocab just shot up scanning this 276 page report. These sex gels compel me to go write a sex scene for my novel.

     

    There's more to come about the merger that I'll get into tomorrow.

     

    But, tonight is poker night with the cronies. Pretty much the only night I take off during the week.

     

    Looks like another busy day trading coming tomorrow. SVA is up 55 cents after hours. And GOLD! Wish I'd gotten back in like you did User! Good job!

     

    The jaguar (JAG) is on the prowl. (NXG), too.

     

    2 Sep 2009, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Iam gold's been another good one.
    2 Sep 2009, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    @ 437339: the Mountain Pass rare earth mine is owned and operated by the privately owned Molycorp Minerals, LLC, not Rare Element Resources, Ltd.

     

    @ one eye: based on figures shared in a recent report from Molycorp Minerals [ bit.ly/3R7AW5 ], it would not be inconceivable for them to be able to produce enough neodymium and other oxides for use in the supply chain AND to simultaneously add to a hypothetical new rare earth strategic stockpile...
    3 Sep 2009, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CNBC had a couple of people on who explained primarily what REEs were all about and mentioned a few names including Avalon and Molycorp.

     

    I've posted a new link with a Mind Boggling Map.

     

    You people know, if ZNNMF does succeed, it may do a number on some of the REE plays. What's good for Zenn, isn't good for Nd. But If it helps push them down, I'd probably be Buying more, Nd isn't the only game changer.
    3 Sep 2009, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    I'll finish up the BPAX comments later today. I'm not hinting to anyone, or recommending to anyone that they should buy this stock.
    3 Sep 2009, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Yes - Tracy Weslosky, my fellow Editor at RareMetalBlog.com & Jack Lifton, regular contributor here at Seeking Alpha, were on CNBC yesterday talking about REEs. you can see the excerpt at this link: cnbc.com/id/15840232?v...
    3 Sep 2009, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    VICL has popped over 18% since the market opened 30 minutes ago.
    3 Sep 2009, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Here is the reason behind the VICL pop.

     

    Sept 3 (Reuters) - Vical gets new patent for flu vaccine, shares jump
    Vical Inc (VICL.O) said it received a new U.S. patent covering its Vaxfectin-formulated DNA vaccines for seasonal and pandemic influenza, sending its shares up 26 percent in pre-market trade.

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    3 Sep 2009, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Novartis: 1-dose swine flu vaccine a possibility
    Swiss drugmaker Novartis joins two Chinese companies that say the vaccine can be produced in one dose.

     

    "The pilot results are encouraging," Andrin Oswald, CEO of Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, said in a statement. "This is important information for public health authorities who prepare for vaccination in the coming months with limited vaccine supply."

     

    www.mercurynews.com/br...
    3 Sep 2009, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    More on BioSante Overview:

     

    An incomplete list of large shareholders:

     

    -Insiders own 3,747,318 shares
    -MOG Capital owns 3,250,000 shares
    -BAM Opportunity Fund owns 2,500,000 shares

     

    Given that there are 27 million shares outstanding, and BioSante expects to have a 100 million to 200 million share offering after the expected close on the merger by October 30th, this stock seems to be one to stay away from, despite there "exciting" pipeline, and their breakthrough with the H1N1 animal study. Further, the gist I got from reading the 276 booklet is that BioSante is merging with Cell Genesys because of their limited on hand capital.

     

    The timing of the offering is (suspiciously) targeted for when H1N1 will be rapidly spreading.

     

    I'm going to reduce my (BPAX) position for a small loss.

     

    3 Sep 2009, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Nice Analysis Maya.
    3 Sep 2009, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    The following is a list of H1N1 related stocks I found on tickerspy.com

     

    -(APT)
    -(AVII)
    -(BAX)
    -(BCRX)
    -(CRXL)
    -(DVAX)
    -(GILD)
    -(GNBT)
    -(GSK)
    -(HEB)
    -(ING)
    -(NVAX)
    -(NVS)
    -(PURE)
    -(QDEL)
    -(RHHBY)
    -(SNY)
    -(SVA)
    -(VICL)
    3 Sep 2009, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4771) | Send Message
     
    Maya - Thanks for your insight. I don't like to get into a stock just before a huge dilution occurs, either. The insiders will be able to protect themselves, but us wee little insiders will not.

     

    On Sep 03 01:09 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > More on BioSante Overview:
    >
    > An incomplete list of large shareholders:
    >
    > -Insiders own 3,747,318 shares
    > -MOG Capital owns 3,250,000 shares
    > -BAM Opportunity Fund owns 2,500,000 shares
    >
    > Given that there are 27 million shares outstanding, and BioSante
    > expects to have a 100 million to 200 million share offering after
    > the expected close on the merger by October 30th, this stock seems
    > to be one to stay away from, despite there "exciting" pipeline, and
    > their breakthrough with the H1N1 animal study. Further, the gist
    > I got from reading the 276 booklet is that BioSante is merging with
    > Cell Genesys because of their limited on hand capital.
    >
    > The timing of the offering is (suspiciously) targeted for when H1N1
    > will be rapidly spreading.
    >
    > I'm going to reduce my (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) position
    > for a small loss.
    >
    3 Sep 2009, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4771) | Send Message
     
    Good list, Maya. Now we can start the analysis on those we haven't touched on yet.

     

    On Sep 03 02:36 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > The following is a list of H1N1 related stocks I found on tickerspy.com
    >
    >
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > -(seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    3 Sep 2009, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    User: I'm wondering right now if it is time to get back in to NVAX and SVA? Just bought some NVAX. I noticed that for the last half hour there seems to be more buyers than sellers. The last ten there's been double buyers to sellers.

     

    What d'ya think?
    3 Sep 2009, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mark, and User!

     

    Mark: I'm looking into the ones I've never heard of right now.
    3 Sep 2009, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya, I have already moved back into NVAX. I would like to move back into SVA, but I would like to see it drop to 9 or less.

     

    The McClellan is screaming market turn... I think it all depends on how the job news is received tomorrow. That could turn it around, or it could effectively pull the plug. My hedge play experiment triggered yesterday. Add the McClellan to the big gold move, and things appear to be near a tipping point. I already started my hedge, but tomorrow will define my level of commitment. If the news is perceived as good tomorrow, I reverse out and don't loose much.

     

    I was looking at an interesting chart from the St. Louis Fed that demonstrated that the average duration of unemployment has sharply increased from the early 1990s on.

     

    www.tradersnarrative.c...

     

    If you look at that chart, the duration of unemployment from the 50's to the early 90's was about 1.5 years. The duration of unemployment from 1991 and 2001 recessions was 4.5 years. Based on the most recent data (2001 recession) the average duration of unemployment, caused by the most recent economic dislocation, should peak in 2013 at about 30 weeks. Over half a year trying to find a job, and that's the average.

     

    A positive spin on the unemployment numbers would focus on the fact that the number of new jobless claims is shrinking. A negative spin would focus on the total people out of work. Less new job loses means the economy has somewhat stabilized, but if we are not creating new jobs, consumer spending is not going to increase. So I guess it all depends on how tomorrows numbers are presented / perceived.
    3 Sep 2009, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I was unclear on that last post. In the first part I am referring to the time that duration of unemployment increases after the recession is said to be over. In the 50s to the early 90s, the duration of unemployment (how long you are unemployed) continued to increase 1.5 years AFTER the called end of the recession. From the 90s on, it the duration of unemployment (how long you are unemployed) continued to increase 4.5 years AFTER the called end of the recession. So the projected average duration of unemployment should peek in 2013 at an average value of 30 weeks. If the distribution is 'normal', that means half of the unemployed will be unemployed for greater than 30 weeks by 2013.

     

    So it appears something about our basic economic structure changed in the early 90s and that change results in less jobs and less job creating potential in the US. I wonder…. NAFTA passed in 1983… Imports have sharply increased since the 90s....
    3 Sep 2009, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    User: Then there's folks like me, who really skew the numbers. I haven't had a job in about seven or eight years. Did cut myself a check from the e-trading account today...to pay quarterly taxes.
    3 Sep 2009, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User283: without looking at the numbers, I would add a couple of potential items to your early 90's "change". Extension of Unemployment benefits and

     

    First and Primary: Computers and Computer related, the "introduction" of and then the "proliferation" of throughout all industries big and small from the early 90's to the early part of this decade. Just like automation hurt Detroit's assembly lines, computers hit everything. From number crunchers to data input/output and storage, you name an Industry and I'll show you downsizing and Productivity gains at the same time.

     

    A Nation without an Industrial base cannot rehire workers to man lost jobs when the recovery arrives. 2002 to present saw a very weak recovery on the "Jobs' front But employment rose because of the recovery in a Sector which had been idled for 25 years. This occurred in spite of an estimated inflow of 12 million Illegal workers: Mining, Oil, Machinery Heavy and Light, Construction both House and Commercial, all went literally beserk on the hiring front.

     

    But now, these same industries were hit at the same time as downsizing through forced mergers, Govt inspired Bankruptcies and outright economic plight. We need The Industrial Base that was moved overseas.

     

    This isn't going to happen under the present Administration. Its going to be a Jobless recovery for some time.

     

    4 Sep 2009, 03:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5804) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya
    I reversed out of SDS today with a small loss. Maby this Tuesday...

     

    I also re-entered into a small position on SVA. Here is the latest news:

     

    Sinovac gets swine-flu-vaccine order from China

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    Sinovac said that according to the order, it must produce 3.3 million doses of the vaccine before Sept. 15.
    4 Sep 2009, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • tagthatstock
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    no position, the stock was noticed as a nonstop pump on daytrader sites. i really dont understand why people are so gullible about the H1N1 'pandemic',,,,,,,,,,,,... wash your hands and use some clorox to clean your area and avoid 'sick people' as usual.

     

    too many people falling into the chicken little mindset-and the media is loving it.

     

    im starting to worry that our mom's raised alot of pretty stupid people. if that is the case,,,,then we NEED a pandemic just to kill the spread of STUPID.
    7 Sep 2009, 10:43 AM Reply Like
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