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  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Swine Flu can do a Number on our already weak economy.


    With miilions already laid off, sustained illness in those remaining could cripple the recovery.
    11 Sep 2009, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
    Have you seen this article? I'm waiting to see if there's a good pullback on NVAX


    11 Sep 2009, 04:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
    And the article is now posted. Haven't finished first cup yet.



    11 Sep 2009, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
    Is there a potential unexpected upside? Maybe the lay-outs will make mgmt realize just how close to the bone they have cut and propel at least a small amount of new hiring increases?


    Not likely, but I didn't want to overlook the possibility.




    On Sep 11 02:47 AM one eye wrote:


    > Swine Flu can do a Number on our already weak economy.
    > With miilions already laid off, sustained illness in those remaining
    > could cripple the recovery.
    11 Sep 2009, 05:14 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » You see, this type of news would have pushed these stocks dramatically higher just a month ago. Now its a yawn.


    Mid to lower $5s for NVAX, unless other Country contracts are announced in the interim.


    I do not see rehiring other than from the Temp sector.


    The Obama stimulus was designed to hit during and preceding election years, this year has had about 10% of the total distributed. The design was wilfull. This is the result.
    11 Sep 2009, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
    OE: 20 cents lower and I'm going to begin buying back NVAX. No way that stock's not going to be much higher within the next couple of months.
    11 Sep 2009, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
    Hi Guys
    Yesterday I posted a review of a special report published in Nature where health care professionals from several countries discussed their countries efforts to deal with the pandemic.



    Shortage of vaccine was a major concern because they think the public-health systems in their countries could be overwhelmed. You can't put a heart attack victim or other critically ill people in intensive care if all the beds are taken up with swine flu victims. Look at India and consider what is going to happen in other dense population centers.


    This bit from Reuters is suggestive on what is likely going to happen…


    Novavax's (NVAX) CEO is reported to be in talks with half a dozen countries looking for quick ways to make flu vaccines to protect their populations. The implication here is clear, if the need is present, the H1N1 vaccine approval process will likely be fast tracked,



    If you can't get enough traditional egg produced vaccine, and the public-health care systems are overwhelmed, and people are dying, countries are going to fast track approval of vaccine capable of being rapidly produced. On top of that the production costs for NVAX vaccines is 80% less than egg produced vaccines.


    I think NVAX will get fast tracked. I also think they are a logical acquisition play. The old egg production method is going the way of the buggy whip. Most egg produced vaccines are going to be produced in the future with either NVAX's method or VICL's DNA method.
    11 Sep 2009, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
    [US] Vaccine Supply May Miss Swine Flu Peak


    Several prominent epidemiologists are warning that even though the new swine flu vaccine works much better than expected, it will still come too late to blunt the peak of this season’s pandemic. The epidemiologists said Friday that they expected the peak to come as early as next month [October], long before enough vaccine to protect all 159 million Americans who need it most will be ready.


    Here is the link to the article.

    13 Sep 2009, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
    Thanks for the link, Swash. Elsewhere, too, I've been reading the vaccines will not arrive in the nick of time. All the more reason to retain a little action in Novavax and Vical.


    Something I learned from my sister, who's keeping ear to rail about the H1N1 virus. She said that a few years back she took her daughter to get a flu shot. The nurse said you're lucky because earlier today they came and took away all the bottles of flu medicine. The only one left was an opened bottle.


    "They," were the US Government.


    She also said that there's rumblings that the National Guard will be issuing the shots, so that they can control who gets a shot, and who doesn't. I'm not sure what the numbers are, but medical employees plus government employees just might add up to more than all the 40 million plus first round of vaccines arriving mid October.


    Now that's an interesting slant.
    13 Sep 2009, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7277) | Send Message
    As to the timing of the "peak" season. I can only use what I hear and see to give me an indication of what is really happening. I don't expect to hear the truth from the MSM until it is already too late. I've heard of swine flu outbreaks on almost all college campuses across the nation. Schools are really the incubators for such a virus. The children can handle the symptoms better if they are healthy, but they take the virus out into the communities where it spreads to the less healthy elderly and to babies less able to combat a virus with their under-developed and fragile immune systems.


    My own two children have had prolonged cold symptoms, but seem to be very well along in overcoming the effects. It didn't really slow them down that much. My son competes in two 5k runs per week and complained about stomach pains throughout his last race, but his time only increased by a few seconds. My daughter is a dancer, but refused to miss a day of school. Go figure.


    I'm seeing the spread but little effect in the school aged children because the strain isn't very strong. However, I wouldn't expect the virus to cause so few problems if (or when) it hits the less physically fit and those with poorly developed immune systems. I don't know yet what to expect as to virility in those groups. But it does seem to be spreading much faster and much earlier than a normal flu season.


    My fear, of course, is a mutation with more virility creating a strain that is not affected by the current vaccines available.
    13 Sep 2009, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
    September 15, 2009
    Swine flu deaths show this flu is different:


    WASHINGTON - Autopsies on people who have died from the new pandemic H1N1 flu show this virus is different from seasonal influenza, even if it has not yet caused more deaths, experts told a meeting on Tuesday. Americans who died from swine flu had infections deep in their lungs, Dr. Sherif Zaki of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told a meeting of flu experts, including damage to the alveoli. This in turn caused what is known as acute respiratory distress syndrome — an often fatal development that leaves patients gasping for breath. This is almost exactly what we see with avian flu," Zaki said. "This looks like avian flu on steroids."


    Seasonal flu kills, too — But "It is very rarely you see what we call diffuse alveolar damage in fatal seasonal influenza," Zaki told a meeting sponsored by the U.S. Institute of Medicine, which advises government on health matters.

    15 Sep 2009, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
    User: That was a terrific article. The last lines scared me silly- makes using a public restroom questionable if this thing really gets going:


    Ruiz-Palacios also said the new virus can be found in the urine and feces of patients, something that may affect how it spreads.
    16 Sep 2009, 12:31 AM Reply Like
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