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  • The Great Global Crash of April 2011: The Great Global Equity and Commodity Nonlinear Collapse (and US Dollar and US Long Term Debt Nonlinear Rise) 0 comments
    Apr 9, 2011 1:53 PM
    9 April, 2011

    The emperor has no clothes and Wall Street owns the American economy. Wall Street owns America's monetary system, its political system, its news reporting system, and the excuse it has for a responsible central bank. To add further criminality admidst the Frankenstein Blankstein caricature of the real economy, the macroeconomic system is a self correcting system and, up or down, long or short, Wall Street will own everything.

    On 9 April 2011  speculator psychology regarding equity and commodity asset derivatives is completely antipodal to those assets' coming nonlinear event. The deal to save of a few billion in a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit has been successfully negotiated. Gold Silver and Commodities are at or near all time highs with a characteristic blow-off gap on Friday 8 April 2011.

    On a daily equities are near or at the x/2.5x/2-2.5x saturation level.

    The Nikkei: 9/23/18 of 18-23 days :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x

    The Global Equities: 9-10/23-24/18-19 days :: x/2.5x/2x.

    The same month CRB: 10/23/18 days : x/2.5x/2x

    April gold futures had a gapped blow-off on 8 April 2011 for a 10/23/19 day or averaged 9.5/24/19 day :: x/2.5x/2x day fractal with both a characteristic second fractal nonlinear gapped drop in the terminal 2x-2.5x and a gap on day 2x of the third fractal.

    What is the probability that this classic Lammert x/2.5x/2x growth pattern is occurring by chance? Near zero.

    The the global equities: the Wilshire's 99/247 month first and second fractal series beginning 12 August 1982 is within 15 trading days of its very long maximum 2.5x second fractal limit.
    The second 247 month fractal is composed of a 50/100/99 month series. The 99 month third fractal is composed of their fractals: 11/27/22/17 and 2/5/5 and 5/13/10 month fractals with overlap of each of the first fractal of each series with the terminal portion of the preceding fractal.

    On a weekly fractal basis, the 6 March 2009  5/13/10 month Wilshire fractal :: x/2.5x/2x with April 2011 the 10 month of the third fractal had its first five month fractal starting in the preceding fractal for a total of 21 weeks. The 5/13/10 month fractal correlates to a 21/52/42 week fractal x/2.5x/2x concluding the week of 11 April 2011.

    For the NiKKEI a steady  collapse has occurred since the 1989-1990 high following a 56//35/88 month or 56/122 month  first and second fractal series ending in 2002 followed by a 7/17/10 or 32 month curvilinear month fractal followed by a second fractal consisting of 14/29/29 months with the high of the third 29 month fractal in February 2011.

    A crash in April following a 9-10/23-24/18-23/14-5 day fractal would form a 31 or so day base with an expected  31/62-77/62-77 day fractal which would complete both the Wilshire's 5/13/10/7-8 month fractal and the Nikkei's 1989 10/25/23///35/87///32/14/49/49/10 month or 56//122//32/79-80 month or
    56/122/110-1 month decay fractal with the 122 month second fractal determining an ideal 49 month averaged  first fratal base for a 49/122/110-111 month or y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal.

    The Swiss Franc 13/27 year :: x/2.5x progressive foretells of a second nonlinear collapse in that currency against the dollar.  The second 27 year progression is composed of a 5/13/11 year :: x/2.5/2-2.5x fractal. The 11 year third fractal is composed of a 8/20/16/13 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x fractal and a 15/37/30 month x/2.5x/2x fractal. 

    What is the probability that these patterns are occuring by chance alone?  Very close to zero. Its the system's money-debt element integrated with the system's asset-valuation-job-credit elements that creates the time evolution quantum valuation patterns of all individual asset's absolute and relative valuation worth  as compared to each and every other asset's individual asset's worth.

    Follow the money.

    The real operating US money supply despite the best efforts of the Federal Reserve is at a collapse point.  Its collapse will cause gold, commodities and equities to nonlinearly collapse in value while the US dollar and US long term interest rates will appreciate nonlinearly(historically low US interest rates.)

    Promised money on the asset side of  the ledgers of the loaners is otherwise known as obligated debt or liabilities  to debtors.

    This promised money represents debt on overvalued or consumed items including residential and commercial property mortgages, credit cards, student loans, and borrowed money on large purchase items such as cars and vacations - a large percentage will undergo collective default.

    This promised money also represents obligations by local taxpayers to fund unreasonable local area pension plans and public employee entitlements and by federal taxpayers to pay the fraud cost and unnecessary valueless cost associated with Medicare, medicaid, and federal programs without substantial value.
    Default on debts  and retrenchment by taxpayers is a natural outcome of the excesses credit by political and financial interest.

    Moreover, the ability to increase borrowing at  5-10 percent of the GDP to effect a gain of 2-4 percent in the GDP is limited in a non nationalistic saturated economy with rules
    that continually reward never ending  financial fraud, exportation of high paying jobs, public vice private jobs, unrealistic pension plans, and encourage speculation vice savings.

    Follow the money 

    It is the system's operating available money, that supports the equities and commodity market valuation curves.

    The daily asset valuations are exactly proportional to the system's daily operating available money and patterns of asset valuation growth and decay reflect the system's internal operating system as related to good debt, bad debt, debt growth or contraction, market driven interest rates, asset vaulations, asset supply, jobs needed within the economy to expand debt and support debt on the ledgers.

    The daily valuation integrate all these parameters - but the time evolution of the asset valuations reflect the natural limits of the self balancing system.

    There is a quantum progression of this evolution which is empirically observed in the fractal groupings of the time course of the  system's asset valuations.

    It is on the basis of the long term quantum progression that a prediction can be made that April 2011 will involve the greatest devaluation of composite commodity and equities  of all time while the US dollar and long term interest rates will see the greatest gains of all times.




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