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  • The Self-Organizing Self Assembly Bounded Global Macroeconomic System: The September 2011 Historical Global Equity Crash 1 comment
    Sep 10, 2011 11:48 AM
    The Self-Organizing Self Assembly Bounded Global Macroeconomic System: The September 2011 Historical Global Equity Crash

    Apple, Ford, the Nikkei, the Wilshire and  US Bonds: The September 2011 Historical Equity Crash and Countervailing 150 year  US Bond Blow-off

    The absolute magnitude of the macroeconomic system's mathematical nonlinear September historical correction is secondary to the extreme unbalanced conditions of four of its primary elements: not-to-be-repaid bad debt having reached an extended saturation point via central bankers lending ex nihilo  to other central  bankers; over supply and supply saturation of the system's primary asset class of value(commercial and primary residential real estate via excessively facilitated past production and facilitated mortgage creation); continued overvaluation of that real estate asset class in spite of three years of orchestrated low interest rates with refinancing to lower monthly payments on overvalued homes, money printing to maintain direct government related and multiplier effect jobs and the related continuance of mortgage payments on those overvalued homes, governmental promotional cash for residential clunkers sales gimmicks, and finally a 30 % market retrenchment;  and current derivative asset class extreme overvaluation (equities, commodities including gold and silver) relative to the real estate valuation collapse; bad debt saturation, poor economic activity and resulting high unemployment levels, and secondary to historically low interest rates  and money exiting from noncompetitive and non performing savings accounts to defacto support the Financial Industry's speculative equities and commodity futures.

    The derivative equity and commodity futures asset valuation system is poised to implode in September with the sudden default and disappearance of Euro debt.

    The Euro and Swiss Franc are non linearly devaluating. Note that the Swiss Franc finished an 11/27/27 week :: x/2.5x/2.5x exact maximum Lammert valuation growth fractal before its collapse. European currency collapse will be monumentally nonlinear as part of a 13/26 year first and second fractal series with the US dollar poised to dramatically rise in value.

    These extreme conditions would naturally occur at this time period.

    However, coalescing forces of one hundred years of continuous political and financial greed, misunderstanding of how the system really works, the lack of good clear simple rules on economically  favorable use of the money system, and the lack of  simple rules delineating rapid and severe punishment associated with the malevolent misuse of the money system - have contributed to a near maximum distortion of the system's asset valuations.

    Apple, Ford, the Nikkei, the Wilshire and  US Bonds: The September 2011 Historical Equity Crash and Countervailing 150 year  US Bond Blow-off

    As of 10 September 2011

    Apple Ford NIKKEI Wilshire: 10-11/26-27/22 /2-3 of 16-18 days:: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x)   (13-15 more trading days) (The Nikkei is a trading day behind the West)

    Terminal Growth (TFC chart): US Bond/Ten Year Notes  11/28/9 days of 22-27 days ::  x/2.5x/2-2.5x    (13 to 18 more trading days)

    Reciprocal Terminal Decay  (TYX/TNX)          12/28/16 of 28-30 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y (12-16 more trading days)  

    Consistently for several years the patterned science of saturation macroeconomics has been predicting historically low US long term interest rates - even in the face of the S and P downgrading of US debt and in opposition to the pessimistic, US Fed bashing,  US long term bond and note managers who have mistakenly  lightened their US bond holdings.

    A final third fractal 52 month US 30 year bond  blow-off fractal is expected in September 2011 with historical 150 year low US interest rates mirroring a September 2011 historical collapse of equity prices. (For the Ten Year Note 9 September 2011 reached 150 year low interest rates at 1.896 %.

    The operations of the macroeconomic system is an elegantly simple mathematical self assembly time ordered patterned science of growth and decay of the valuations of the system's assets.  The macroecomony's  patterned time ordered mathematical relationships of the growth and decay of its asset classes of which duality money  is one of the asset classes - confers on the system the properties of a science.

    The two most prominent self-assembly deterministic non stochastic patterns of the macroeconomy that are now operative and countervailing at this historical transition phase in September  2011 are terminal x/2.5x/2x growth of the global system's most valuable asset by plurality - US long term debt instruments - and extreme terminal time portion  second fractal 2x-2.5x nonlinear  collapse of US equities.

    The macroeconomic system is a integrative bounded system of asset production, asset supply, asset valuation, and the medium that both facilitates asset transactions and is part of the asset element of the system: money.  The macroeconomy's medium money has dual properties existing as an asset with incoming interest payments and as a liability as debt with outgoing interest payments.

    Qualitatively the world's macroeconomy is at the time of phase transition where money that exists in the form of lower quality debt with the properties  of  asset/liability duality ceases to exist as default of lower quality not-to-be-repaid debt occurs. The three year push on the string by ex nihilo bailouts by the global central banks to preserve ongoing payments of at risk debt, the bond holders holding that debt as an asset,  and the massive quantity of duality money that it represents - is at the end. The interest on Greek one year debt notes is on 8 September currently over 95 percent. 

    The Predictive Science of Saturation Macroeconomics

    In concert with expected euro debt default and erasure of Euro duality asset/debt money, September 2011 is the 52nd month of a 27/64/52 month US 30 year Bond  x/2.5x/2x fractal series starting in 1990 and a second three phase growth fractal series to the three phase growth fractal series starting in 1984 with an incipient 2 year fractal starting in 1982.

    The world facilitated 30 year growth pattern of US debt instruments with progressively lower interest rates has been associated with about a 1400 percent increase in US composite equity valuation since 1982. Equity valuation is dependent on the total duality money supply - with the portion of the money supply  involved in poorer quality asset-liability debt especially in the Euro-zone expected to vanish in September. Euro smaller nation bankrupcy and default is  timed with the US debt instrument  September 2011 27/64/52 of 52 monthly growth fractal (x/2.5x/2x) and the 10 September 2011 11/28/9 of 22-27 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x dtaily terminal growth fractal.

    For equities September 2011 is in the terminal most portion of a composite equity 22 year second  fractal starting in 1990 with a 9 year base starting in 1982 or 34/84 of 85 quarters (3 month time unit).

    Tax rules favor ownership of the speculative equity asset class over savings.  Because of this, composite equity second fractal nonlinearity has been be pushed  to the terminal most time portion of the second fractal.  The 84th quarter of a potential 85 quarters of a 1982 34/85 quarter first and second fractal series for the Wilshire represents the extreme terminal portion of the second fractal.

    Are the daily valuations of  US long term debt interest instruments - which represent the global macroeconomic system's greatest most valuable liquid asset' occurring by chance? Or is there defined  pattern that these daily valuations are undergoing self organization leading to a final 150 year low interest rate, highest ever valuation point?

    The science of saturation macroeconomic's hypothesis is that the system of money-reciprocal debt- credit creation, asset supply, asset valuation, and jobs and wages created by ongoing demand and credit creation is an internally bounded system with limits in growth and decay of sub elements, self organization, and nonlinear transformations that both characterize fractals and the energy universe.
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    Author’s reply » All deleveraging could over the next five trading days ...... 11/27-28/23 of 28 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y vice 11/27-28/22/2 -3 of 15-17 days x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x


    From the Wilshire March 2009 low


    Wilshire's First growth fractal: 88 days


    Wilshire's Second growth fractal 221 days (with two half days of trading total 220 days exactly 2.5x with characteristic nonlinear drop in terminal 2-2,5x of 88 day base with
    terminal portion following a 6/15/12/9 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x series to the low on day 221.


    Wilshire's Third and Fourth confluent fractals: Lower low starting fractal of 27 days with base of 14 days in terminal portion of 221 Second fractal for a interpolated averaged fractal of 12/30/24/18 days :: x/2.45x/2x/1.5x


    27 day lower low fractal shared proportionally: 1/3 with second fractal and 2/3 with 3rd and 4th confluent fractal. 9 days or 2 weeks integrated with second fractal and 18 days or 4 weeks integrated with 3rd and 4th fractal.


    The March 2009 Wilshire's first and second growth fractals fractals made of 19 and 49 weeks or total of 67 weeks


    The Wilshire's subsequent confluent Third growth and Fourth decay fractals composed of an average 2x + 1.5-1.6x or 67 to 69 weeks


    The Wilshire's third fractal has an initiating lower low fractal of (4 weeks) or (18 days)


    weeks (4 week initiating) then 10/23/ (7/14/13 of 14-17 (weeks)
    days (18 day initiating) then 42/105/(33/(65-67)/(11... 2 of 16 days) x/2.5x/2x/1.5x or 11/27-28/23-24 of 28 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y days


    The 33 day subfractal of the 42/105/33 day growth series is composed of a 5/13/10/8 day x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x series.


    Third fractal peak valuations occurred on day 65 (1.6x the base fractal of 42) with a secondary peak near day 84 .... 42/105/peak 65 (1.6x of 42 day base) 84 2x secondary spike with a projected interpolated 33/67/67-82 day :: y/2y/2-2.5y decay fractal :: x/2.5x/(y/2y/2-2.5y)


    This would place the sum of the length of the first two fractal lengths equal to the sum of the lengths of the confluent 3rd and fourth fractals 19 + 47 + 2 weeks = 67 weeks = 4 + 10 + 23 + 7 +14 +14 weeks.


    Alternatively the current 11/27/22/3 of 15-17 day projection or 33//65-67//11/27/22/3 of 15-17 day fractal would produce an extra two weeks or 69 weeks with a 1.6x vice 1.5x equivalent fourth fractal.
    11 Sep 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
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