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  • The Economic Fractalist's Final Postings 0 comments
    Oct 28, 2009 7:44 PM

    Lammert Saturation Economics: The Wilshire’s Multiple 2 to 2.5x Synchronized Nonlinear Decay Windows

    The Wilshire:
    First Fractal x Low to Low:   21 Nov 2008 - 6 March 09 :  71 days
    Second Fractal to date 2x:   6 March 09 - 25 Sept 09 : 142 days

    x/2x  :: 71/142 days ; the Wilshire now overinflated by the Federal Reserve’s Malinvestment  Zero Interest Rate Short Term Treasury Policy.

    A synchronization of second fractal terminal 2x-2.5x window time frames are now aligned for equities. Nonlinear gapped lower valuations for equities are expected over the next 7 weeks. This will correlate to a flow of money into the countervailing US bonds driving long term  interest rates to and likely below their preceding lows. A 71/142 day fractal was completed for the Wilshire on 25 September 2009.  The long term bonds are following a inverse 14/28 of 28-35 week fractal.

    Composite Equity Synchronized second fractal endings:  25 September 2009

    70/151 of 140-175 years     :     1788-1858/1998 - 2033
    9/19 of18-22 years              :     1982-1990/1990 -2012
    47-48/85 of 95-96 months     :      1998-2002/2002-2010
    26/53 of 53-65 months     :       2003-2005/2005-2010
    6/7 of 12-15 months           :       2008-2010

    The global macroeconomy is likely at its lower high composite equity major secondary saturation  area.

    A nonlinear equity and commodity collapse is a necessary end product of a forward based non sustainable debt load dependent, debt-defaulting dependent, over asset production dependent, over asset valuation dependent, over production capacity dependent, non-essential job reduction dependent, total hourly loss wage dependent, non sustainable promised entitlement system dependent, and increasing bank insolvency dependent - macroeconomy.

    Against the above cited interacting massive causal factors have been and are the World Central Banks’ collective efforts to push on the string and continue the forward debt dependent economic system via a zero interest rate policy and  creation of electronic ledger money distributed primarily and initially to the large Investment Banks and Financial Corporations and secondarily  to a large number of governmental employees and private governmental funded contracts - all against future economic activity which in turn is illogically dependent on even greater future debt expansion.

    Can and if so how long can central banks push the Keynesian end possibility solution scenario  and maintain the economy by placing these ledger money creation entries into their accounting books -  ledger entries which are essentially divorced from real supply and demand economic activity?

    It is the patterned science of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics and the predictable evolution of the macroeconomic system’s asset valuation saturation curves that offers the possibility of comparison of the largeness of the real operating macroeconomic system vice the smallness of the Central Banks’ collective interventions.

    Regardless of the central banks’ interventions, the available real operating convertible investment money in the real economic system is contracting:  as real estate asset valuations, pensions, banks, mortgages, outstanding debts of all types, wages, total jobs - all are undergoing implosion. The rapidly exchangeable money flowing between the major asset classes of bonds, equities, and commodities is the top of the pyramid of total asset wealth.  As the valuation base of the pyramid - including real estate and wage dependent and solvency dependent private, local, and state government expected future pension benefits, and collective ongoing wages - contracts, money at the top portion of the pyramid will undergo asset rotational fractal progression and  devolution with countervailing flow between the two major classes: debt instruments on the one hand and equity and commodity assets on the other.

    This patterned asset valuation rotational progression is the subject of the predictable science of quantum saturation macroeconomics.

    Using the simple repetitive fractal quantum laws of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics, the coming great 140 year US equity second fractal debt dependent collapse was predicted in the Website Front page  in May 2005.  www.economicfractalist.com/

    The intraday high for the Wilshire on 11 October 2007 was exactly predicted using the simple quantum laws of valuation saturation curve fractal analysis.

    Do the basic qualitative economic  laws of supply and demand and the correlative quantitative laws of the new science of saturation macroeconomics using the rotational saturation valuation curves of debt instruments, composite equities, and composite commodities - do these real economic elements - dominant over the central banks’ interventional money creation activities ?

    Time will tell just how marginal the Central Banks’  magical and extremely  bias ledger entry money creation interventions will play out against the larger debt dependent macroeconomic devolution.

    There is an intuitive understanding that the global system must undergo retrenchment, that overvalued assets must come in alignment with wages, that wages must come in alignment with economic need, that debt load must be reduced to historical norms, that the western economies have changed with the ability for international corporations to readily use much lower labor and manufacturing cost in developing countries.

    The American manufacturing middle class with its multiplier effect on local service businesses is contracting and cannot take on the debt load of current real estate valuations even with the artificially low interest rates . Wages of western country  professionals, semiprofessionals, and service workers, relative to those of developing countries are in disequilibrium. Western asset valuations supported by those wages are also in disequilibrium.

    The daily saturation fractals for the Wilshire and CRB are viewed in the context of the weekly saturation fractals patterns; the weekly in context of the monthly; and the monthly in the context of the yearly saturation fractals;  and yearly in the context of the 17-yearly and thereafter 70 yearly debt dependent saturation fractal patterns. From afar, viewing the larger time scale fractals, few can miss the patterned regularity of the asset valuation curves.  The nonlinear balanced science of debt dependent asset dependent macroeconomics is observable for those with eyes open.

    Saturation fractals are an interactive phenomenon of optimal distribution of macroeconomic debt dependent available money and asset investor pools  interested in particular  asset classes.  Money optimally flows and these asset classes deterministically rotate in progression to valuation saturation limits.

    The large US progenitor equity fractal pattern of x/2x or 70/140 years occurred from 1788-1858/1858-1998. The nonlinear portion of the great 140 year second fractal window 2x-2.5x began in 1998.

    The Wilshire’s interpolated fractals from October 1998 are consistent with the previously identified and posted Nikkei and Wilshire shorter, intermediate, and longer term interpolated fractals.   From September 1998 a 47-48 month base fractal composed of 11/28/11 months  -  defines the integrative equity money base for the first composite fractal sequence with nodal lows defining the entire sequence. The 11/28/11 month 48 month fractal is composed of  3 sub fractals with characteristic quantum patterns of x/2.3x/2x/1.5x and y/2.5y/2.5y  :    2/5/4/3///5/13/12///11 months with the last 11 month fractal composed of 7/17/14/10 weeks.

    The Wilshire’s 47-48 month first fractal, the incipient  base of the terminal portion of the 140 year US composite second fractal, ended on July 24 2002 and was followed by a likely 95-96 month second fractal (starting on 24 July 2002 and composed of a curvilinear monthly classic 4 phase fractal sequence of 14/35/28/21-22 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x  for a total length of 95-96 months.

    The interpolated 11/27/22 month:: x/2.5x/2x fractal dating from 11 October 2002 evolved in ideal 3 phase fractal growth pattern to  the July 19 2007 nominal secondary saturation high.  A 20/50/40 day reflexive growth pattern resulted in the predicted 11 October 2007 all time nominal Wilshire high.

    From the Wilshire’s 11/27/22 month July 2007 secondary high saturation area, a 6/15/12 of 12/9-10 month 4 phase fractal would ideally complete the  47-48/95-96 month first and second fractal series dating from the lows in September-October 1998 and the 14/35/28/21 fractal series dating  from the low on 24 July 2002.

    The terminal timing of this 6/15/12/9-10 month :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x  final fractal series involving the July 2007  11/27/22 month saturation area is May-June 2010 and exactly matches the timing of the terminal portion of the 14/35/28/21-22 month fractal series dating from the 24 July 2002 low, which represented the transition day between the 47-48 month first fractal and the 95-96 month second fractal.

    The ideal weekly sequence correlative to the July 2007 saturation area 6/15/12/9-10 month decaying x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x Lammert growth and decay 4 phase series   is  :   24+/61/49/36-39 weeks.

    The 4 phase ideal Lammert Fractal weekly series of 24+/61/49/36-39 weeks whose terminal timing agrees with other progressively longer term fractal series may provide the answer to the earlier question, can the Central Bank create and significantly sustain an artificial economy or are the underlying qualitative principles and corresponding quantitative saturation debt dependent macroeconomic laws simply too overpowering.

    The 61 week second fractal of the 24+/61/49/36-39 week series ended on 10 October 2008 with a tell tale technical reversal day. The 49 week expected third fractal  is composed of two subfractals: a 7/16/19 week fractal and currently as of 25 September, a 11 week fractal for a total of 50 weeks with an nonlinear gapped interday high on 23 September ending on the low of the day.

    As has been repetitively described and as described on the original web site main page, the nonlinear break characterizes terminal portions of Lammert second growth fractals. Likewise the 9/21 day first and second fractal growth progression with the nonlinear break between 2x and 2.5x of the second fractal represents the repetitive fractal proportionality microcosm that belies the anticipated x/2x : 70/140 year US equity nonlinear window commencing in 1998.

    The fourth phase 36-39 week decay fractal of this 24+/61/49-50/36-39 week fractal would ideally place a low during the time frame between 10 May 2010 -5 June 2010. Four phase decay fractals tend to be shorter than the ideal and a 16/30 of 35-37/24 fractal dating from 21 November 2008 will likely take the major low in May 2010.

    In this ideal fractal scenario the Wilshire’s 18-19 week grouped fractal  beginning 6 March 2009 and ending 5 September 2009 and composing the third weekly growth fractal of a 7/16/18-19 weekly series becomes the subsequent base for a 18-19/38-46-48 week first and second fractal weekly series. The week of 8 September is the 10th week of an expected  46-48 week second fractal whose terminal timing matches the 24+/61/50/1 of 36-39 week where the 24+ week based was contained in the July 2007 Wilshire saturation 4 phase declining growth and decay series.

    From its predicted 11 October 2007 intraday high at 15900+, the Wilshire fell more than 9100 or over 9 trillion dollars of valuation to its 6 March 2009 low at about 6800. Money flow has subsequently ‘grown’ the index to 10600 and it may gain to the 10800 -11000 level by 10 September 2009. A fall of 9100 points from this area conceivably would take the Wilshire to a low of less than 2000 during the 10 May - 5 June 2010 targeted low time area.

    A final inflation adjusted  ideal low for the Wilshire in an additional 95 months for a 47/95/95 month :: y/2y/2y decay fractal dating from October 1998 would result in a final nodal low for the Wilshire in Jan-Feb 2018.  This time period would theoretically allow enough debt liquidation and asset valuation adjustment to begin the next great credit cycle.

    Gold stocks and gold futures share the Wilshire’s similar predicted near term high.  Gold is completing a 19/48/45 of 38-48 weekly :: x/2.5x/2x -2.5x saturation fractal.  XAU is completing a 27/58/53 of 53-54 month fractal series. Massive US asset deflation will raise the relative value of the remaining reverse-asset-denominated US dollars. The composite gold equity index will fall below the 25 October 2000 lows. The global macroeconomy is likely at the end of its lower high composite equity major secondary saturation  area.

    Filed under: Uncategorized | Comment (0)

    For the Wlshire observe the gapped blow-off on 17 September 2009  representing the 2.5x third fractal 21 day high of a 9/21/21 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x final three phase extended fractal growth series  and  the major lower high (secondary to 11 October 2007). There is a (presidential) euphoria that characterizes (equity) market peak saturation areas.

    The global macroeconomy is very near its lower high composite equity major secondary saturation  area ideally expected on 17  September vice 10 September 2009 :: x/2.5x/2.5x verses x/2.5x/2x or 9/21/21 days vice 9/19/18 days and in the incipient phases of its greatest  ever economic deflationary collapse.

    This collapse is a necessary end product of a forward based non sustainable debt load dependent, debt-defaulting dependent, over asset production dependent, over asset valuation dependent, over production capacity dependent, non-essential job reduction dependent, total hourly loss wage dependent, non sustainable promised entitlement system dependent, and increasing bank insolvency dependent - macroeconomy.

    Against the above cited interacting massive causal factors are the World Central Banks’ collective efforts to push on the string and continue the forward debt dependent economic system via creation of electronic ledger money distributed primarily and initially to the large Investment Banks and Financial Corporations and secondarily  to a large number of governmental employees and private governmental funded contracts - all against future economic activity which in turn is ilogically dependent on even greater future debt expansion.

    Can and if so how long can central banks push the Keynesian end possibility solution scenario  and maintain the economy by placing these ledger money creation entries into their accounting books -  ledger entries which are essentially divorced from real supply and demand economic activity?

    It is the patterned science of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics and the predictable evolution of the macroeconomic system’s asset valuation saturation curves that offers the possibility of comparison of the largeness of the real operating macroeconomic system vice the smallness of the Central Banks’ collective interventions.

    Regardless of the central banks’ interventions, the available real operating convertible investment money in the real economic system is contracting:  as real estate asset valuations, pensions, banks, mortgages, outstanding debts of all types, wages, total jobs - all are undergoing implosion. The rapidly exchangeable money flowing between the major asset classes of bonds, equities, and commodities is the top of the pyramid of total asset wealth.  As the valuation base of the pyramid - including real estate and wage dependent and solvency dependent private, local, and state government expected future pension benefits, and collective ongoing wages - contracts, money at the top portion of the pyramid will undergo asset rotational fractal progression and  devolution with countervailing flow between the two major classes: debt instruments on the one hand and equity and commodity assets on the other.

    This patterned asset valuation rotational progression is the subject of the predictable science of quantum saturation macroeconomics.

    Using the simple repetitive fractal quantum laws of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics, the coming great 140 year US equity second fractal debt dependent collapse was predicted in the Website Front page  in May 2005.  www.economicfractalist.com/

    The intraday high for the Wilshire on 11 October 2007 was exactly predicted using the simple quantum laws of valuation saturation curve fractal analysis.

    Do the basic qualitative economic  laws of supply and demand and the correlative quantitative laws of the new science of saturation macroeconomics using the rotational saturation valuation curves of debt instruments, composite equities, and composite commodities - do these real economic elements - dominant over the central banks’ interventional money creation activities ?

    Time will tell just how marginal the Central Banks’  magical and extremely  bias ledger entry money creation interventions will play out against the larger debt dependent macroeconomic devolution.

    There is an intuitive understanding that the global system must undergo retrenchment, that overvalued assets must come in alignment with wages, that wages must come in alignment with economic need, that debt load must be reduced to historical norms, that the western economies have changed with the ability for international corporations to readily use much lower labor and manufacturing cost in developing countries.

    The American manufacturing middle class with its multiplier effect on local service businesses is contracting and cannot take on the debt load of current real estate valuations even with the artificially low interest rates . Wages of western country  professionals, semiprofessionals, and service workers, relative to those of developing countries are in disequilibrium. Western asset valuations supported by those wages are also in disequilibrium.

    The daily saturation fractals for the Wilshire and CRB are viewed in the context of the weekly saturation fractals patterns; the weekly in context of the monthly; and the monthly in the context of the yearly saturation fractals;  and yearly in the context of the 17-yearly and thereafter 70 yearly debt dependent saturation fractal patterns. From afar, viewing the larger time scale fractals, few can miss the patterned regularity of the asset valuation curves.  The nonlinear balanced science of debt dependent asset dependent macroeconomics is observable for those with eyes open.

    Saturation fractals are an interactive phenomenon of optimal distribution of macroeconomic debt dependent available money and asset investor pools  interested in particular  asset classes.  Money optimally flows and these asset classes deterministically rotate in progression to valuation saturation limits.

    The large US progenitor equity fractal pattern of x/2x or 70/140 years occurred from 1788-1858/1858-1998. The nonlinear portion of the great 140 year second fractal window 2x-2.5x began in 1998.

    The Wilshire’s interpolated fractals from October 1998 are consistent with the previously identified and posted Nikkei and Wilshire shorter, intermediate, and longer term interpolated fractals.   From September 1998 a 47-48 month base fractal composed of 11/28/11 months  -  defines the integrative equity money base for the first composite fractal sequence with nodal lows defining the entire sequence. The 11/28/11 month 48 month fractal is composed of  3 sub fractals with characteristic quantum patterns of x/2.3x/2x/1.5x and y/2.5y/2.5y  :    2/5/4/3///5/13/12///11 months with the last 11 month fractal composed of 7/17/14/10 weeks.

    The Wilshire’s 47-48 month first fractal, the incipient  base of the terminal portion of the 140 year US composite second fractal, ended on July 24 2002 and was followed by a likely 95-96 month second fractal (starting on 24 July 2002 and composed of a curvilinear monthly classic 4 phase fractal sequence of 14/35/28/21-22 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x  for a total lengh of 95-96 months.

    The interpolated 11/27/22 month:: x/2.5x/2x fractal dating from 11 October 2002 evolved in ideal 3 phase fractal growth pattern to  the July 19 2007 nominal secondary saturation high.  A 20/50/40 day reflexive growth pattern resulted in the predicted 11 October 2007 all time nominal Wilshire high.

    From the Wilshire’s 11/27/22 month July 2007 secondary high saturation area, a 6/15/12 of 12/9-10 month 4 phase fractal would ideally complete the  47-48/95-96 month first and second fractal series dating from the lows in September-October 1998 and the 14/35/28/21 fractal series dating  from the low on 24 July 2002.

    The terminal timing of this 6/15/12/9-10 month :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x  final fractal series involving the July 2007  11/27/22 month saturation area is May-June 2010 and exactly matches the timing of the terminal portion of the 14/35/28/21-22 month fractal series dating from the 24 July 2002 low, which represented the transition day between the 47-48 month first fractal and the 95-96 month second fractal.

    The ideal weekly sequence correlative to the July 2007 saturation area 6/15/12/9-10 month decaying x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x Lammert growth and decay 4 phase series   is  :   24+/61/49/36-39 weeks.

    The 4 phase ideal Lammert Fractal weekly series of 24+/61/49/36-39 weeks whose terminal timing agrees with other progressively longer term fractal series may provide the answer to the earlier question, can the Central Bank create and significantly sustain an artificial economy or are the underlying qualitative principles and corresponding quantitative saturation debt dependent macroeconomic laws simply too overpowering.

    The 61 week second fractal of the 24+/61/49/36-39 week series ended on 10 October 2008 with a tell tale technical reversal day. The 49 week expected third fractal  is composed of two subfractals: a 7/16/19 week fractal and currently as of 5 September, a 9 week fractal for a total of 48 weeks. The daily three phase fractal series for the second 9 week growth sub fractal is 9/19/15 of  16-19 days which would match the third fractal’s ideal 49 weeks.

    For the four phase series, the week of 7 September is week 49 of an expected 24+/61/49 of 49/36-39 four phase  weekly ideal Lammert deteriorating growth and decay series.  A final high on 10 September 2009 would represent an ideal 24+/61/49 week :: x/2.5x/2x and an ideal 9/19/18 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal growth series. Watch for an exhaustion gap near or on 10 September  2009 with a reversal and an ending on the low of the trading day. The alternative extended pattern, 9/21/21 days with an exhaustion gap on 17 September 2009 now appears operative.

    For the 9/21/21 of 21 day fractal, note the  nonlinear gapped lower break of the 19 day second fractal between the 18th (2x) and 19th day (2-2.5x) on the 14th and 17th of August 2009 respectively. Note also the exhaustion gap that has already occurred at 515 EST for the FTS which is following the identical 9/21/21 three phase fractal growth pattern.

    As has been repetitively described and as described on the original web site main page, the nonlinear break characterizes terminal portions of Lammert second growth fractals. Likewise the 9/21 day first and second fractal growth progression with the nonlinear break between 2x and 2.5x of the second fractal represents the repetitive fractal proportionality microcosm that belies the anticipated x/2x : 70/140 year US equity nonlinear window commencing in 1998.

    The fourth phase 36-39 week decay fractal of this 24+/61/49-50/36-39 week fractal would ideally place a low during the time frame between 10 May 2010 -5 June 2010.

    In this ideal fractal scenario the Wilshire’s 18-19 week grouped fractal  beginning 6 March 2009 and ending 5 September 2009 and composing the third weekly growth fractal of a 7/16/18-19 weekly series becomes the subsequent base for a 18-19/46-48 week first and second fractal weekly series. The week of 8 September is the 10th week of an expected  46-48 week second fractal whose terminal timing matches the 24+/61/49-50/1 of 36-39 week July 2007 Wilshire saturation 4 phase declining growth and decay series.

    From its predicted 11 October 2007 intraday high at 15900+, the Wilshire fell more than 9100 or over 9 trillion dollars of valuation to its 6 March 2009 low at about 6800. Money flow has subsequently ‘grown’ the index to 10600 and it may gain to the 10800 -11000 level by 10 September 2009. A fall of 9100 points from this area conceivably would take the Wilshire to a low of less than 2000 during the 10 May - 5 June 2010 targeted low time area.

    A final inflation adjusted  ideal low for the Wilshire in an additional 95 months for a 47/95/95 month :: y/2y/2y decay fractal dating from October 1998 would result in a final nodal low for the Wilshire in Jan-Feb 2018.  This time period would theoretically allow enough debt liquidation and asset valuation adjustment to begin the next great credit cycle.

    Gold stocks and gold futures share the Wilshire’s similar predicted near term high.  Gold is completing a 19/48/43 of 38-48 weekly :: x/2.5x/2x -2.5x saturation fractal.  XAU is completing a 27/58/53 of 53-54 month fractal series. Massive US asset deflation will raise the relative value of the remaining reverse-asset-denominated US dollars. The composite gold equity index will fall below the 25 October 2000 lows.

    Composite Equity Synchronized second fractal endings:  8 September 2009

    70/151 of 140-175 years     :     1788-1858/1998 - 2033
    9/19 of18-22 years              :     1982-1990/1990 -2012
    47-48/85 of 95-96 months     :      1998-2002/2002-2010
    26/53 of 53-65 months     :       2003-2005/2005-2010
    6/7 of 12-15 months           :       2008-2010
    18-19/11 of 46-48 weeks    And    16/29 of 34-40 weeks

    Filed under: Uncategorized | Comment (1)

    The global macroeconomy is very near its lower high composite equity major secondary saturation  area ideally expected on 10 September 2009 and in the incipient phases of its greatest  ever economic deflationary collapse.

    This collapse is a necessary end product of a forward based non sustainable debt load dependent, debt-defaulting dependent, over asset production dependent, over asset valuation dependent, over production capacity dependent, non-essential job reduction dependent, total hourly loss wage dependent, non sustainable promised entitlement system dependent, and increasing bank insolvency dependent - macroeconomy.

    Against the above cited interacting massive causal factors are the World Central Banks’ collective efforts to push on the string and continue the forward debt dependent economic system via creation of electronic ledger money distributed primarily and initially to the large Investment Banks and Financial Corporations and secondarily  to a large number of governmental employees and private governmental funded contracts - all against future economic activity which in turn is ilogically dependent on even greater future debt expansion.

    Can and if so how long can central banks push the Keynesian end possibility solution scenario  and maintain the economy by placing these ledger money creation entries into their accounting books -  ledger entries which are essentially divorced from real supply and demand economic activity?

    It is the patterned science of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics and the predictable evolution of the macroeconomic system’s asset valuation saturation curves that offers the possibility of comparison of the largeness of the real operating macroeconomic system vice the smallness of the Central Banks’ collective interventions.

    Regardless of the central banks’ interventions, the available real operating convertible investment money in the real economic system is contracting:  as real estate asset valuations, pensions, banks, mortgages, outstanding debts of all types, wages, total jobs - all are undergoing implosion. The rapidly exchangeable money flowing between the major asset classes of bonds, equities, and commodities is the top of the pyramid of total asset wealth.  As the valuation base of the pyramid - including real estate and wage dependent and solvency dependent private, local, and state government expected future pension benefits, and collective ongoing wages - contracts, money at the top portion of the pyramid will undergo asset rotational fractal progression and  devolution with countervailing flow between the two major classes: debt instruments on the one hand and equity and commodity assets on the other.

    This patterned asset valuation rotational progression is the subject of the predictable science of quantum saturation macroeconomics.

    Using the simple repetitive fractal quantum laws of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics, the coming great 140 year US equity second fractal debt dependent collapse was predicted in the Website Front page  in May 2005.  www.economicfractalist.com/

    The intraday high for the Wilshire on 11 October 2007 was exactly predicted using the simple quantum laws of valuation saturation curve fractal analysis.

    Do the basic qualitative economic  laws of supply and demand and the correlative quantitative laws of the new science of saturation macroeconomics using the rotational saturation valuation curves of debt instruments, composite equities, and composite commodities - do these real economic elements - dominant over the central banks’ interventional money creation activities ?

    Time will tell just how marginal the Central Banks’  magical and extremely  bias ledger entry money creation interventions will play out against the larger debt dependent macroeconomic devolution.

    There is an intuitive understanding that the global system must undergo retrenchment, that overvalued assets must come in alignment with wages, that wages must come in alignment with economic need, that debt load must be reduced to historical norms, that the western economies have changed with the ability for international corporations to readily use much lower labor and manufacturing cost in developing countries.

    The American manufacturing middle class with its multiplier effect on local service businesses is contracting and cannot take on the debt load of current real estate valuations even with the artificially low interest rates . Wages of western country  professionals, semiprofessionals, and service workers, relative to those of developing countries are in disequilibrium. Western asset valuations supported by those wages are also in disequilibrium.

    The daily saturation fractals for the Wilshire and CRB are viewed in the context of the weekly saturation fractals patterns; the weekly in context of the monthly; and the monthly in the context of the yearly saturation fractals;  and yearly in the context of the 17-yearly and thereafter 70 yearly debt dependent saturation fractal patterns. From afar, viewing the larger time scale fractals, few can miss the patterned regularity of the asset valuation curves.  The nonlinear balanced science of debt dependent asset dependent macroeconomics is observable for those with eyes open.

    Saturation fractals are an interactive phenomenon of optimal distribution of macroeconomic debt dependent available money and asset investor pools  interested in particular  asset classes.  Money optimally flows and these asset classes deterministically rotate in progression to valuation saturation limits.

    The large US progenitor equity fractal pattern of x/2x or 70/140 years occurred from 1788-1858/1858-1998. The nonlinear portion of the great 140 year second fractal window 2x-2.5x began in 1998.

    The Wilshire’s interpolated fractals from October 1998 are consistent with the previously identified and posted Nikkei and Wilshire shorter, intermediate, and longer term interpolated fractals.   From September 1998 a 47-48 month base fractal composed of 11/28/11 months  -  defines the integrative equity money base for the first composite fractal sequence with nodal lows defining the entire sequence. The 11/28/11 month 48 month fractal is composed of  3 sub fractals with characteristic quantum patterns of x/2.3x/2x/1.5x and y/2.5y/2.5y  :    2/5/4/3///5/13/12///11 months with the last 11 month fractal composed of 7/17/14/10 weeks.

    The Wilshire’s 47-48 month first fractal, the incipient  base of the terminal portion of the 140 year US composite second fractal, ended on July 24 2002 and was followed by a likely 95-96 month second fractal (starting on 24 July 2002 and composed of a curvilinear monthly classic 4 phase fractal sequence of 14/35/28/21-22 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x  for a total length of 95-96 months.

    The interpolated 11/27/22 month:: x/2.5x/2x fractal dating from 11 October 2002 evolved in ideal 3 phase fractal growth pattern to  the July 19 2007 nominal secondary saturation high.  A 20/50/40 day reflexive growth pattern resulted in the predicted 11 October 2007 all time nominal Wilshire high.

    From the Wilshire’s 11/27/22 month July 2007 secondary high saturation area, a 6/15/12 of 12/9-10 month 4 phase fractal would ideally complete the  47-48/95-96 month first and second fractal series dating from the lows in September-October 1998 and the 14/35/28/21 fractal series dating  from the low on 24 July 2002.

    The terminal timing of this 6/15/12/9-10 month :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x  final fractal series involving the July 2007  11/27/22 month saturation area is May-June 2010 and exactly matches the timing of the terminal portion of the 14/35/28/21-22 month fractal series dating from the 24 July 2002 low, which represented the transition day between the 47-48 month first fractal and the 95-96 month second fractal.

    The ideal weekly sequence correlative to the July 2007 saturation area 6/15/12/9-10 month decaying x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x Lammert growth and decay 4 phase series   is  :   24+/61/49/36-39 weeks.

    The 4 phase ideal Lammert Fractal weekly series of 24+/61/49/36-39 weeks whose terminal timing agrees with other progressively longer term fractal series may provide the answer to the earlier question, can the Central Bank create and significantly sustain an artificial economy or are the underlying qualitative principles and corresponding quantitative saturation debt dependent macroeconomic laws simply too overpowering.

    The 61 week second fractal of the 24+/61/49/36-39 week series ended on 10 October 2008 with a tell tale technical reversal day. The 49 week expected third fractal  is composed of two subfractals: a 7/16/19 week fractal and currently as of 5 September, a 9 week fractal for a total of 48 weeks. The daily three phase fractal series for the second 9 week growth sub fractal is 9/19/15 of  16-19 days which would match the third fractal’s ideal 49 weeks.

    For the four phase series, the week of 7 September is week 49 of an expected 24+/61/49 of 49/36-39 four phase  weekly ideal Lammert deteriorating growth and decay series.  A final high on 10 September 2009 would represent an ideal 24+/61/49 week :: x/2.5x/2x and an ideal 9/19/18 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal growth series. Watch for an exhaustion gap near or on 10 September  2009 with a reversal and an ending on the low of the trading day.

    For the 9/19/15 of 15-18 day fractal, note the  nonlinear gapped lower break of the 19 day second fractal between the 18th (2x) and 19th day (2-2.5x) on the 14th and 17th of August 2009 respectively.

    As has been repetitively described and as described on the original web site main page, the nonlinear break characterizes terminal portions of Lammert second growth fractals. Likewise the 9/18-19 day first and second fractal growth progression with the nonlinear break between 2x and 2.5x of the second fractal represents the repetitive fractal proportionality microcosm that belies the anticipated x/2x : 70/140 year US equity nonlinear window commencing in 1998.

    The fourth phase 36-39 week decay fractal of this 24+/61/49/36-39 week fractal would ideally place a low during the time frame between 10 May 2010 -5 June 2010.

    In this ideal fractal scenario the Wilshire’s 18-19 week grouped fractal  beginning 6 March 2009 and ending 5 September 2009 and composing the third weekly growth fractal of a 7/16/18-19 weekly series becomes the subsequent base for a 18-19/46-48 week first and second fractal weekly series. The week of 8 September is the 10th week of an expected  46-48 week second fractal whose terminal timing matches the 24+/61/49/1 of 36-39 week July 2007 Wilshire saturation 4 phase declining growth and decay series.

    From its predicted 11 October 2007 intraday high at 15900+, the Wilshire fell more than 9100 or over 9 trillion dollars of valuation to its 6 March 2009 low at about 6800. Money flow has subsequently ‘grown’ the index to 10600 and it may gain to the 10800 -11000 level by 10 September 2009. A fall of 9100 points from this area conceivably would take the Wilshire to a low of less than 2000 during the 10 May - 5 June 2010 targeted low time area.

    A final inflation adjusted  ideal low for the Wilshire in an additional 95 months for a 47/95/95 month :: y/2y/2y decay fractal dating from October 1998 would result in a final nodal low for the Wilshire in Jan-Feb 2018.  This time period would theoretically allow enough debt liquidation and asset valuation adjustment to begin the next great credit cycle.

    Gold stocks and gold futures share the Wilshire’s similar predicted near term high.  Gold is completing a 19/48/43 of 38-48 weekly :: x/2.5x/2x -2.5x saturation fractal.  XAU is completing a 27/58/53 of 53-54 month fractal series. Massive US asset deflation will raise the relative value of the remaining reverse-asset-denominated US dollars. The composite gold equity index will fall below the 25 October 2000 lows.

    Composite Equity Synchronized second fractal endings:  8 September 2009

    70/151 of 140-175 years     :     1788-1858/1998 - 2033
    9/19 of18-22 years              :     1982-1990/1990 -2012
    47-48/85 of 95-96 months     :      1998-2002/2002-2010
    26/53 of 53-65 months     :       2003-2005/2005-2010
    6/7 of 12-15 months           :       2008-2010
    18-19/10 of 46-48 weeks

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    The Quantum Laws of Lammert Saturation Macroeconomics Verses  Central Banks’ Interventional Activity

    In the US macroeconomy a large percentage of  jobs are directly and indirectly dependent on government funding through redistribution of private sector taxes now supplemented by  electronic central bank money creation and debit account entries. The wages from these jobs continue interest and principle repayment to a largely insolvent private banking system - with the notable exception  of central bank supported special copartner Financial Trusts - on debt incurred on very overvalued assets inflated by both central bank monetary policy and the clear fraud perpetrated by the members of the same special financial trust  judged reflexively by the central bank as too essential to the debt-credit system, to undergo judgment with appropriate indictments, reparation property confiscation, and imprisonment.

    Hypothetically, the central bank can make long term interest rates whatever it desires by buying its own bonds at every debt auction. In the worse case scenario large holders of US debt can ’sell’ their bonds or notes at anytime with the Federal Reserve replacing their interest bearing electronic accounts with zero interest bearing paper dollars. The Federal Reserve can as well ‘loan’ the US government an infinite amount of electronic dollars at short term, intermediate term, and long term rates of  .01, 0.1, 1.0, or 10 percent interest, providing a continuing flow of money for government dependent funded jobs and entitlements, now representing 50 percent of the economy.

    With the 2009 US government involved in funding 400 - 500 percent more of the economy’s wages and entitlements than in 1930, a rapid implosion and collapse of the operating real economy secondary to asset oversupply, excessive debt, and asset overvaluation is both much easier and faster to prevent than in the 1930’s when great public works projects  slowly evolved and reemployed those willing to be displaced to the work sites.

    Printing money for relatively generous (as compared to the 1930’s) unemployment benefits and for a continued stream of money for government funded jobs has easily allowed a continuation of the majority of the economy and importantly continuation of interest and principal payments on overvalued assets providing a foundation,  for many nervous, and by normal accounting methods, insolvent private banks who are the real owners of the overvalued toxic mortgages and whose banking operations  are as dependent on the ongoing  government dependent funded jobs as are the wage earners themselves for their day to day living needs.

    The accolades which the Treasury department head, vocal Congress minority, and leading economist apologists have been heaping on themselves and the Federal Reserve are in the above paragraph’s context simply unjustified.  The facile enlargement of the Federal Reserve debit account for unemployment benefits and for continuation of government dependent jobs was essential, obvious,  and neither masterful nor a great Central Banking/Treasury accomplishment.

    All that was needed was approval by the Congress to increase the debt limit with borrowing from the Federal Reserve - or as perhaps a much better alternative option with borrowing directly from the Treasury. A nontrading Treasury account like the social security trust fund  would serve the same purpose as the debit account of the Federal Reserve with debt repayment to future taxpayers vice the private central bank.  The money within the virtual social security trust fund account could have formed the basis for further fractional lending. It would have likewise prevented the bailout ‘rider’ that the Federal Reserve debit option afforded the Federal Reserve’s  partner Financial Trust Industry.

    Taking over the bond market’s transactional activity from the likes of  Goldman Sachs et. al. and allowing them to collapse under the weight of their exponentialized bad debt derivative instruments - that - that would have represented masterful action by the US Treasury and Congress. There are people within the system talented enough to have accomplished this.

    US international and Federal Reserve bond holdings has  become a Nash game whereby large holders of US debt are unlikely to make dramatic changes in their ownership of US debt primarily because of self interest and the knowledge that the US Central Bank will manufacture  only enough debt to maintain funding for government dependent wages and entitlements and hence continuation of payment on overvalued assets. Money in the real economy won’t rapidly expand as it is primarily being used to service debt, maintain,to the degree it can, overinflated asset prices, and support basic living needs.

    The Federal Reserve’s implied promise to the large holders of US debt is then this:  the Federal Reserve’s ‘owned’ US debt that it has completely electronically fabricated will be placed into a dead account and will not be used in the real market place, e.g., for the purchase of useful commodities such as end oil and will not compete against the international holders of US debt who have  earned these IOU’s in the old fashioned way of formerly real economic commerce.

    This game of mutual best self interest and benefit will continue as long as the Central Bank maintains control of the US financial system and may afterall represent a best case scenario for the transition of the US and world toward a new global macroeconomic equilibrium. This Nash game is confounded by the possibility of nationalism and a rapid political phase transition.

    Even with the US Central Bank’s measured monetization intervention, the real macroeconomy is exactly represented by and  following  necessary rotational asset saturation curve pathways (albeit at slightly altered intervening Federal Reserve valuation levels) which are determined by the larger traditional macroeconomic  factor fundamentals of asset valuation, ongoing total wages, asset supply and demand, and total debt load servicing in the real economy. Continuation of government related jobs and unemployment wages via electronic money fabrication has altered valuations, but not the time course of asset valuation saturation curves defined by saturation highs and nodal lows.

    October 1998 represented a major nodal low for the Wilshire and the first time of major central bank intervention for financial institutions’ losses in the leveraged derivative markets.  It also represented the 140th year of the US composite equity second  fractal beginning in 1858 with a first fractal base of 70 years.

    The Wilshire’s interpolated fractals from October 1998 are consistent with the previously identified and posted Nikkei and Wilshire shorter, intermediate, and longer term interpolated fractals. Now, yet another major second fractal ending is observed. A 47 month fractal defined by three subfractals of 19, 19, and 11 months  each composed respectively of 4/9/8 and 3/8/6/5 months and 7/17/14/10 weeks define the integrative equity money base for the first composite fractal sequence with nodal lows defining the entire sequence. This  47 month first fractal base defines the beginning terminal 140 year US composite second fractal area of x to 2.5x and its incipient integrated available equity investment money pool base.  This 47 month first fractal is followed by a likely 94-95 month second fractal composed of a curvilinear monthly classic 4 phase fractal sequence of 14/35/28/21 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x  composing a monthly series of 95 months. From the Wilshire’s July 2007 secondary high a 6/15/11 of 12/9 month 4 phase fractal would ideally complete the  47/95 month first and second fractal series dating from the lows in 1998 and the 14/35/28/21 fractal series dating  from the lows in 2002.

    In this ideal fractal scenario the 22-23 week period ending in March 2009 composed of 7/16-17 weeks becomes the weekly base  fractal for a second fractal of 55-58 weeks or 14-15 months. An ideal low for the Wilshire would be expected in March - April 2010 likely in the 3000-5000 range.

    A final inflation adjusted  ideal low for the Wilshire in an additional 95 months for a 47/95/95 month :: y/2y/2y decay fractal dating from October 1998 would result in a final nodal low for the Wilshire in Jan-Feb 2018.  This time period would theoretically allow enough debt liquidation and asset valuation adjustment to begin the next great credit cycle.

    Composite Equity Synchronized second fractal endings: August 2009

    70/151 of 140-175 years     :     1788-1858/1998 - 2033
    9/19 of18-22 years              :     1982-1990/1990 -2012
    47/85 of 94-95 months     :      1998-2002/2002-2010
    26/52 of 52-65 months     :       2003-2005/2005-2010
    6/6 of 12-15 months           :       2008-2010

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    The Millennium Global Debt Saturation Limit in an Asset Saturated Global Macroeconomy

    Quantitative easing - Monetizing US Debt

    Within two years, the Federal Reserve will have something in common with the Chinese and Japanese; it will become the third member of the triumvirate of entities holding the most US tradeable debt securities;  in fact it will be the major holder of US debt.

    The math is easy. Real US dollars invested in US debt comes from foreign investing countries
    from their monthly US current account trading deficits. For the first quarter there was 101.5 billion
    dollars potentially available for US debt ‘investment’, a nonlinear record low secondary to the US depression and reduced US consumer spending on transpacific products. For the second quarter ending in June the total account deficit was even lower - less than 80 billion dollars. The best case scenario is that there will be 350-400 billion dollars available for investment. This amount is lessened by purchases of other countries, especially Euro central bank debt instruments and by the purchase of commodities denominated in US dollars.

    Trillion dollar deficits for the next two years will make the private Federal Reserve the largest holder of US debt - likely by a factor of 2 to 1 over the junior members of the triumvirate: China and Japan.

    The world’s real macroeconomic system’s ability to take on more debt has been exceeded. The world debt  saturation limited was reached earlier in the year and is being accommodated by nonecomonic based central banking ledger entries.

    This is a completely necessary move by the Federal Reserve to continue a semblance of normal social political government- dependent economic activity. It is, on the other hand, completely unstable and creating malinvestment in an overvalued equity and commodity market.

    The daily Lammert  fractal growth saturation curve pattern for the Wilshire - dependent on the amount of interested party’ money available for equity  investment -  is: x/2-2.5x/2x or 9/19/5 of 5-18 days.  A peak of the second saturation fractal is exactly at 2x day 18, and the nonlinear collapse, characteristic of second fractal’s is on day 19, between 2x and 2.5x.. Note that he second is cmosed of two subfractals of 6 and 14 with similar  x and 2-2.5x  fractal proportionalities.


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