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  • As GOOGLE GOES.... Saturation Macroeconomics: a real science?  0 comments
    Oct 31, 2009 1:16 PM

    As GOOGLE Goes:

    Saturation Macroeconomics and Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis- A Real Science? (Part 2)

     (economicfractalist.com/ see final update)

    Lammert Saturation Macroeconomics

    GOOGLE Points the Way: The Past: The Future

    The Ubiquitous x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x Lammert Quantum Growth and Decay Pattern

    Self-assembly. Self organization.  The laws of the universe, those generally invisible, empirical forces of the universe, cause self assembly and self organization of entities that compose the universe. Galaxies, smaller star clusters, solar system, atoms, subatomic particles undergo an optimal self assembly  'strung' together and organized by energy-matter force equivalents.  Physicists usually attempt prove a hypothesis by identifying an entity or observation that should be part of a larger theorized pattern. Those organized patterns and the moving forces behind them - and in the traditional milieu of human economic activity, the forces of Adam Smith's invisible hand - constitute the sine qua non of a science.

    A new science of non stochastic saturation macroeconomics has been proposed with recognizable patterns of quantum time based asset valuation growth and decay curves representing the composite interactions of the system's primary entities with 'invisible' countervailing and self-limiting forces between the system's entities that collectively represent  the system's behavior.

    Unlike traditional macroeconomics and mainstream macroeconomists who failed to predict the current crises, the patterned science of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics both predicted the current nonlinear crises and the exact nominal peak day of the composite equity market on 11 October 2007.

    The macroeconomic system's primary elements are  total debt, total jobs and wages, total asset supply, and  total asset valuation. While interest rates and lending parameters create the relative degree - and more recently  the  extreme degrees - of debt load, asset over production, asset overvaluation,  and employment;  these two parameters importantly do not appreciably change the quantum time course of asset valuation curves. Debt limiting, asset over production and inventory  limiting, asset over valuation limiting, and consequential total wage limiting boundaries will occur and are the cause of  the quantum timed asset valuation curves.

    This  is a complex system where the money supply is a component of the system's total asset valuation. A particular country's money supply is part of that country's total asset valuation which is dependent on rotational exchange rates.
    While central banks and politicians can manipulate interest rates, lending parameters, forward consumption (cash for clunkers and first time home buyers endowments), bad debts on accounting books, and channel the nation's wealth into favored private  financial institutions, they do so under the umbrella of the macroeconomic system's inevitable self correcting and contracting time based forces. Central banks and politicians do so with generally good intent but without the wherewithal consideration of immediately preceding similar actions which directly caused the severity of imbalance.

    They are pushing on the string of a known policy with a proven bad outcome  for the whole system. By continuing to do so and to the nth degree they have created more extreme malinvestment and hugely disproportional advantages for  wealthy individuals and wealthy money  trust industries with first access to nation's credit. Ultimately the disparity of the immense wealth created subject to only  marginal taxes made on this exponentialized credit may unravel the citizens' social contract with their respective governments' constitutions.

     All of these elements can be summated into one global non stochastic saturation macroeconomic system. Asset valuations self assemble into growing and decaying quantum fractals as the forces interact with each other and debt which cannot be repaid contracts the valuation of the total system.

    The laws of asset saturation curves: are quantum growth in three fractal phases: x/2x-2.5x/2x and quantum decay in one fractal phase: 1.5 to 1.6x. Decay can also occur in a y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y or the entire 1.5-1.6x can be in a deteriorating 4 phase x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x.

    As goes Google so goes America. GM, America's smokestack icon and symbol of middle class prosperity, has gone. Google, a symbol of American ingenuity, has replaced it as a bell weather asset valuation marker for the American derivative market known as the equity market.

    From Google's inception, the monthly pattern is clear 8/18/16/13 months exactly matching the x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x fractal serials identified in 2005 Economic Fractalist Introductory page. 1 August 2006 showed minute gaps lower completing the 18 month second fractal.

    From its low point and the completion of the 8/18/16/13 month fractal series or 52 months, GOOGLE has especially benefited from a zero interest rate speculation enhancement policy. While the first 16-17 weeks of the broader Wilshire was negative, GOOGLE showed a positive 17 week first fractal. This week it concluded a 34 week  second fractal.  A second fractal nonlinear break lower is expected between week 34 and week 43 or between 2 to 2.5x of the 17 week  first fractal base.  

    This 17/35-43 first and second fractal series is likely a sub component of a 17/35-43/24 week fractal series which taken together represents 19 months and serves as the  first subfractal base to the larger 8/18/16/13 month fractal series which composes GOOGLE's first large 52 month fractal.  From GOOGLEs' inception: the series would be 52//19/48/36/24 or 52//19/48/48.

    This would place GOOGLE's lows in 2010, 2014, and 2018-19 corresponding to the larger picture of ongoing debt liquidation, asset devaluation, inventory devolution, and general high unemployment.  The greatest difference between the early 1930's and  today are the percentage of those citizens directly and indirectly employed by Federal, state, and local government.

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