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  • Defining the Global 38-39 week Second Fractal Decay Sequence: 1 comment
    Nov 27, 2009 1:48 AM
    Defining the Global 38-39 week Second Fractal Decay Sequence:

    East verses West Comparative Composite Equity Second Fractal Decay

    Asymptotic fractal saturation variation curves are easily observable all  along the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly composite equity valuation time charts.

     Composite valuations grow and decay in quantum fractals, not dependent on the epiphenomena  tangential news, but directly on the total credit and money supply. The  self organizing, optimizing  rotational laws of saturation macroeconomics distribute money  between the two countervailing speculative investment classes: debt instruments on the one side and equity and commodities on the other.


    The base fractal for the current 38-39 week fractal is 19-20 weeks. A review of the Nikkei, DAX, FTSE, and CAC valuation time graphs demonstrates  well defined the fractal nadir valuation points.

    For the Wilshire a 7/16 week fractal x/2x-2.5x ending in March 2009 corresponds to the 19-20 week Nikkei and European base fractals. For the Wilshire's 7 week base fractal 4 weeks are shared with the preceding decay sequence and 4 weeks with the declining base fractal of 16 weeks for a total of 19 weeks similar to the European composite equity base fractal.  

    As well 4 weeks could be integratively shared between week 61 of the second decay fractal and the incipient 19-20 week base fractal with an ideal fractal decay sequence of 25//62.5//21.5/43 weeks or 25/62.5/62.5 weeks or 25/63/63 weeks (y/2.5y/2.5y).

    The self organizing optimal composite equity decay fractal series containing the July 2007 secondary Wilshire nominal high is likely 25/63/63 weeks with the last 64 composed of a likely 19-20/39 of 43-44 week fractal. This likely will be followed by another 25 week growth and and lower low decay fractal.


    Within the 25/63/63 week decay fractal y/2.5y/2.5y 11 October 2007 was the prospectively predicted nominal high by the patterned science of saturation macroeconomics.


     The second 38-39 week fractal with its incipient low in March 2009 is composed of two subfractals of 17/38-40/33-36 days and 27/54-56/18-19  days as of 27 November 200. Notice the first fractal x to second fractal 2-2.5x self organizing relationships in these two subfractal series.

    The NIKKEI saturation curve tells the comparative story of saturation macroeconomics.. The Japanese Central Bank - over the last 38-40 weeks  - has not infused proportionally nearly as much fabricated  money into their money system as have the western central banks.  The Nikkei has consequently already  reached the peak valuation saturation area of its current 38 week second fractal - and about 17  weeks ago. It is already following a determined likely daily decay sequence.

    For the Western composite equities the 18-19 day third fractal of the 27/54-56/ 18-19 day sequence likely contains the 39 week saturation peak area with the first
    3/7-8/4 day fractal sequence with a gap higher high on day 2  of the third fractal and extended x/2.5x/2.5x saturation sequence of 3/7-8/7-8 days.

    Can simple comparative eastern western equity decay analysis determine the exact second fractal low to the 19-20 week base?

    Quantum growth begins in terminal decay and incipient quantum decay begins near or at terminal asymptotic saturation growth.

    For the Wilshire, FTSE, and western equities a 6 day decay base fractal is observed in the likely saturation apex area  A likely decay sequence of 2/2.5y/1.5-2.5y would be 6/15/10-15 days.  The equities are currently on day 5-6 of the second fractal of this decay series or 6 /5  of 14-15 /10 - 15.  The timing of this daily decay sequence matches the terminal area of the 25/62-64/62-64 week y/2.5y/2.5y weekly decay series earlier cited.

    The Nikkei earlier occurring saturation area  defines a matching terminal day fractal with a 11/19 of 28/11 - 16 day decay fractal. The beginning of the third weekly fractal or 19-20/39 of 40-45/25 will occur at the end of this sequence.

    Significant lower valuation second fractal nonlinearity is expected over the next 4-5 week time frame.


    The goal of saturation macroeconomics is to demonstrate that mathematical laws govern the macroeconomic system, that the money-debt system behaves in quantum fashion and the system  is characterized by a self balancing quality with boundaries of maximal debt load, over supply, over valuation, and forward consumption.

    Understanding how the macroeconomic system works is not a trivial matter. Wise and prudent politicians, wise and prudent CEO's, wise and prudent central bankers, and wise and prudent regulators - all - having knowledge of how the system really works - can thereby collaborate in an efficient and reasonable manner to prevent excesses  in system.  A cornerstone of this understanding is prohibitive regulation against wealth fabrication by financial engineering manipulations of the money-credit-debt system.  This robs the money-debt system of service and labor related value.



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  • The Economic Fractalist
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    Author’s reply » Saturated: 3 December 2009

     

    The DAX, FTSE, and CAC show a reciprocal inverse fractal 3/7/7 day fractal with a gap higher at the opening of the 7th day of the third fractal on 3 December: this is a saturation apical pattern.
    3 Dec 2009, 06:46 AM Reply Like
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