The Economic Fr...'s  Instablog

Saturation Economics

The temporal evolution of the money-debt-asset system conforms to a very exact science that is denominated and characterized in the nonlinear rotational quantum fractal growth and decay of the system's asset valuations. The system's available money flows in a rotational manner between debt instruments on the one hand and on the other: equities, commodities, and speculative equivalents, e.g. real estate.  All of the collective manipulations by the defacto owner-controllers of  the credit system to artificially adjust lending parameters and interest rates for the publicized purposes of nominal GDP growth and jobs creation lies solidly within the money-debt-asset system and under the umbrella of quantum saturation macroeconomics.

Even the historical departure from the established quasi real economic based money supply creation by world central banks to cancel selected financial industry copartners' debts and their exceptional greed-derived bad bets likewise lives under the umbrella of the science of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics.

The macroeconomic system is an inexorable feedback system with its boundaries ultimately defined by summated debt obligations of - individual citizens, corporations, and governmental systems, the latter  composed of a rapidly expanding jobs and entitlement  matrix.  

All wage earning elements ultimately work for the central bank  to repay the central bank and its fabricated credit, with interest,  that the system's banking rules, largely determined and developed by the banking-financial industry and its lobbyists and well supported politicians, allow the banking-financial industry to create - largely from nothing using fractional lending - and more recently actually from nothing.

Under the conditions of global oversupply, asset overvaluation relative to wages, and ongoing required debt servicing, the global push on the string to create  jobs  with for the most part, limited, or no real economic value through further system disproportional debt expansion is a patently illogical remedy for a global system collapsing from the same - disproportional debt relative to real economic supply and demand activity.

The eastern and western central banks will attempt to maintain the viability of debt and interest obligations by the bank's and financial trust's counterparties, e.g., private citizens, corporations, and local, state, and federal governments while raising the issue  and limiting as possible support for debt-equivalent entitlements that the system has produced.  The employees of former smoke stack factories have already had their entitlements pared through corporate bankruptcy. State and local community pensions unsustainable by local tax revenue and 'investments' will not be sustained with further credit from the banking industry.

In this manner, nonfederal entitlements will undergo default.

 A strategy for the central bank and financial industry to default on federal entitlements is likely impossible with the central bank's linked existence  directly  to the federal system. Likely the central bank- financial industry will be well satisfied with its new unlimited stop loss powers and ability to parasitize the system without consequence,  gaining disproportionate and immense wealth rather than diametrically collapsing from deserved bankruptcy, as the US macroeconomic system becomes progressively more sovietized and dependent on central bank and financial industry money creation.  

Fractal analysis shows that the world is at a major saturation area with regard to oversupply of valued real economy durable assets and commodities relative to demand and available wages to support further consumption. Like a python who has managed to eat an elephant, some digestion time is needed before the next meal. Expected by saturation fractal analysis is a rotation of 'speculative money'  to debt instruments with collapse in commodity and equity prices

Quantum terminal growth and decay mathematical fractal progressions: x/2-2.5x/2x       (3 phase quantum fractal growth)
x/2.5x/2x/1.5x  (4 phase: 3 phase fractal growth and one phase decay)
y/2.5y/2.5y       (3 phase decay fractal which is interpolated within final saturation 
                         growth)

1 January 2010

The Wilshire:
71/152 years     x/2-2.5x   ( 2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
9/21 of 21 years   x/2.5x     9//4/8/9   years   (2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
14/35/28/16 of 21 months    x/2.5x/2x/1.5x
26/58 of 62-65 months   x/2-2.5x            (2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
34/84/65 of 65-68 weeks    x/2.5x/2x   
22-23/44-43 of 43-46   x/2x  then 23/46-57 weeks  2/2.5x   (2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
44-46 weeks = 19-20//6/12/9 of 9-12 weeks  or 19-20//x/2x/2x weeks
and 34/84/65 of 78-84 weeks  y/2.5y/2.5y  

Oil:
18-19/45-46/37 months   x/2.5x/2x

Copper, Gold, AG, CRB:

27/58 of 62-68 months   x/2-2.5x
13/32/26/1 of 20 weeks  x/2.5x/2x/1.5x

Nikkei, FTSE, CAC:
26/58 of 62-65 months  x/2-2.5x

MCD:
23/43 of 46 weeks   x/2x
43-46 weeks composed of 9/21/16 of 16-19 weeks x/2.5x/2x-2.5x
final fractal sequence 8-9/19/16-19/12       x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x

Google
8/18/16/12 months     x/2.5x/2x/1.5x  (from its inception)
23/43 of 46 weeks  x/2x

Enron, New Century, LEH   bankrupt and allowed to fail by the central bank-financial industry
GM, FNM,  AIG    bankrupt but sustained by the the financial industry
GS    bankrupt but rebankrolled by  GS members of the US treasury and the central bank

IRX

13/32/26/1 of 20 weeks  x/2.5x/2x/1.5x (zero to negative short term interest rates ahead)

TYX inverse
13/32/1 of 26 months x/2.5x/2x ( 150 year historically low interest rates ahead).