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  • 1 January 2010: Quantum Saturation Macroeconomics 3 comments
    Jan 1, 2010 2:22 PM
    Saturation Economics

    The temporal evolution of the money-debt-asset system conforms to a very exact science that is denominated and characterized in the nonlinear rotational quantum fractal growth and decay of the system's asset valuations. The system's available money flows in a rotational manner between debt instruments on the one hand and on the other: equities, commodities, and speculative equivalents, e.g. real estate.  All of the collective manipulations by the defacto owner-controllers of  the credit system to artificially adjust lending parameters and interest rates for the publicized purposes of nominal GDP growth and jobs creation lies solidly within the money-debt-asset system and under the umbrella of quantum saturation macroeconomics.

    Even the historical departure from the established quasi real economic based money supply creation by world central banks to cancel selected financial industry copartners' debts and their exceptional greed-derived bad bets likewise lives under the umbrella of the science of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics.

    The macroeconomic system is an inexorable feedback system with its boundaries ultimately defined by summated debt obligations of - individual citizens, corporations, and governmental systems, the latter  composed of a rapidly expanding jobs and entitlement  matrix.  

    All wage earning elements ultimately work for the central bank  to repay the central bank and its fabricated credit, with interest,  that the system's banking rules, largely determined and developed by the banking-financial industry and its lobbyists and well supported politicians, allow the banking-financial industry to create - largely from nothing using fractional lending - and more recently actually from nothing.

    Under the conditions of global oversupply, asset overvaluation relative to wages, and ongoing required debt servicing, the global push on the string to create  jobs  with for the most part, limited, or no real economic value through further system disproportional debt expansion is a patently illogical remedy for a global system collapsing from the same - disproportional debt relative to real economic supply and demand activity.

    The eastern and western central banks will attempt to maintain the viability of debt and interest obligations by the bank's and financial trust's counterparties, e.g., private citizens, corporations, and local, state, and federal governments while raising the issue  and limiting as possible support for debt-equivalent entitlements that the system has produced.  The employees of former smoke stack factories have already had their entitlements pared through corporate bankruptcy. State and local community pensions unsustainable by local tax revenue and 'investments' will not be sustained with further credit from the banking industry.

    In this manner, nonfederal entitlements will undergo default.

     A strategy for the central bank and financial industry to default on federal entitlements is likely impossible with the central bank's linked existence  directly  to the federal system. Likely the central bank- financial industry will be well satisfied with its new unlimited stop loss powers and ability to parasitize the system without consequence,  gaining disproportionate and immense wealth rather than diametrically collapsing from deserved bankruptcy, as the US macroeconomic system becomes progressively more sovietized and dependent on central bank and financial industry money creation.  

    Fractal analysis shows that the world is at a major saturation area with regard to oversupply of valued real economy durable assets and commodities relative to demand and available wages to support further consumption. Like a python who has managed to eat an elephant, some digestion time is needed before the next meal. Expected by saturation fractal analysis is a rotation of 'speculative money'  to debt instruments with collapse in commodity and equity prices

    Quantum terminal growth and decay mathematical fractal progressions: x/2-2.5x/2x       (3 phase quantum fractal growth)
    x/2.5x/2x/1.5x  (4 phase: 3 phase fractal growth and one phase decay)
    y/2.5y/2.5y       (3 phase decay fractal which is interpolated within final saturation 
                             growth)

    1 January 2010

    The Wilshire:
    71/152 years     x/2-2.5x   ( 2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
    9/21 of 21 years   x/2.5x     9//4/8/9   years   (2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
    14/35/28/16 of 21 months    x/2.5x/2x/1.5x
    26/58 of 62-65 months   x/2-2.5x            (2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
    34/84/65 of 65-68 weeks    x/2.5x/2x   
    22-23/44-43 of 43-46   x/2x  then 23/46-57 weeks  2/2.5x   (2nd fractal nonlinear devolution)
    44-46 weeks = 19-20//6/12/9 of 9-12 weeks  or 19-20//x/2x/2x weeks
    and 34/84/65 of 78-84 weeks  y/2.5y/2.5y  

    Oil:
    18-19/45-46/37 months   x/2.5x/2x

    Copper, Gold, AG, CRB:

    27/58 of 62-68 months   x/2-2.5x
    13/32/26/1 of 20 weeks  x/2.5x/2x/1.5x

    Nikkei, FTSE, CAC:
    26/58 of 62-65 months  x/2-2.5x

    MCD:
    23/43 of 46 weeks   x/2x
    43-46 weeks composed of 9/21/16 of 16-19 weeks x/2.5x/2x-2.5x
    final fractal sequence 8-9/19/16-19/12       x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x

    Google
    8/18/16/12 months     x/2.5x/2x/1.5x  (from its inception)
    23/43 of 46 weeks  x/2x

    Enron, New Century, LEH   bankrupt and allowed to fail by the central bank-financial industry
    GM, FNM,  AIG    bankrupt but sustained by the the financial industry
    GS    bankrupt but rebankrolled by  GS members of the US treasury and the central bank

    IRX

    13/32/26/1 of 20 weeks  x/2.5x/2x/1.5x (zero to negative short term interest rates ahead)

    TYX inverse
    13/32/1 of 26 months x/2.5x/2x ( 150 year historically low interest rates ahead).


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  • The Economic Fractalist
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 5 January 2010

     

    4 January 2010 -the top of composite equities?

     

    The Wilshire is at 27/55/43 of 43-54. 43 days for the third growth fractal represents a Fibonacci proportionality with the 27 day base.

     

    The growth sequence for the Wilshire's third 43 day growth is composed of three caricatured Lammert fractal growth and decay sequences: X/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x
    Ist daily sequence: days 1-19 3/8/7/4 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x
    2nd daily sequence: days 19-34 3/7/6/3 x/2.5x/2x/x
    3rd daily sequence days 34-43 2/5/5 x/2.5x/2.5x

     

    The caricatured cycles can be better observed in FTSE. An underlying slope line for the FTSE contains each growth and decay sequence with 5 January completing the 2/5/5 day x/2.5x/2.5x extended growth fractal.

     

    It is possible that yet one more growth cycle will occur taking the Wilshire and FTSE to a 27/55-56/54 day sequence or x/2-2.5x/2x.
    The Economic Fractalist

     

    The rise in the US 3 month Treasuries indicate the malinvestment that the central bank(s) is(are) causing as some 'investors' in US treasuries are finally giving up on the artificially extreme low rates caused by central bank ex nihilo buying of treasuries and (at the euphoric end run of the equity markets) are causing the last minutely gaps upward in the equity markets at the terminal saturation growth point.

     

    At the equity (and commodity) saturation areas a portion of the nominal 5 trillion dollar rise in Wilshire will repurchase some of the central bank's ex nihilo purchased bonds.
    5 Jan 2010, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • The Economic Fractalist
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 5 January 2010 (modified)

     

    4 January 2010 -Near the top of composite equities?

     

    The Wilshire is at 27/55/43 of 43-54.

     

    The growth sequence for the Wilshire's third 43 day growth is thus far composed of three caricatured Lammert fractal growth and decay sequences: X/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x
    Ist daily sequence: days 1-19 3/8/7/4 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x
    2nd daily sequence: days 19-34 3/7/6/3 x/2.5x/2x/x
    3rd daily sequence days 34-43 3/7/2 of 6 to 7 x/2.5x/2.5x

     

    The caricatured cycles can be better observed in FTSE. An underlying slope line for the FTSE contains each growth and decay sequence.

     

    It is possible that one more short growth cycle will occur taking the Wilshire and FTSE to a 27/55-56/54 day sequence or x/2-2.5x/2x. This terminal area would match a 34/84/68 week terminal area x/2.5x/2x and a 23/46 week terminal area.
    The Economic Fractalist

     

    The rise in the US 3 month Treasuries indicate the malinvestment that the central bank(s) is(are) causing as some 'investors' in US treasuries are finally giving up on the artificially extreme low rates caused by central bank ex nihilo buying of treasuries and (at the euphoric end run of the equity markets) are causing the last minutely gaps upward in the equity markets at the terminal saturation growth point.

     

    At the equity (and commodity) saturation areas a portion of the nominal 5 trillion dollar rise in Wilshire will repurchase some of the central bank's ex nihilo purchased bonds.
    5 Jan 2010, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • The Economic Fractalist
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Great US Second Fractal Equity-Commodity Valuation Collapse

     

    The Great Macroeconomic Devolution is in the Near Future, Not the Recent Past

     

    This statement is obvious with the unsustainable entitlement liabilities created by the western political world. But what is informational is that a nonlinear collapse will occur even prior to the estimate s of the imminently respectable former CBO director and the likewise the sage observations of the very respectable TARP overseer.

     

    The East, The West :: Japan, the USA :: the Nikkei, the Wilshire :: 26/58 of 65 months

     

    The countervailing debt market: TNX 12/29/16 of 24 weeks and IRX 21/38 of 42-52 weeks.

     

    The Federal Reserve Financial Industry, can create wealth at will and from nothing. And yet, the real macroeconomic system ... and how that debt/asset valuation/jobs system really operates ... will be the dominant force. Financial firms who have been recapitalized by their counterpart principals in the central bank will own just about every thing in the west after the collapse as non-dollar equivalent asset valuations fall during the above second fractal time frame.

     

    For optimists, classic economists, and linear macroeconomic thinkers: expect the very unexpected.
    16 Jan 2010, 05:45 PM Reply Like
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