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  • FEBRUARY 2010 - ENTERING THE 152 YEAR US GREAT SECOND FRACTAL NOLINEARITY WINDOW FOR EQUITIES AND COMMODITIES 2 comments
    Jan 31, 2010 10:58 AM
    February to April 2010 - The 152 Year Second Fractal Great  Nonlinear Devaluation Window for Equities and Commodities

    31 January 2010  - Saturation Macroeconomics - A Confirmed New Science

    Incipient fundamental terminal saturation dynamism is occurring for the world and its population. Peak oil production and thereafter declining oil production will lead to peak grain and thereafter declining grain production and with it peak global human population.  Peak global human population is only 2 and 1/2 billion away and 50 to 60 or so years away.

    In the 1950's occurred the saturation of discovery of easily extractable oil. Currently occurring is the plateau saturation area of peak production of easily extractable oil. And in the near  future of 40 or so years saturation of peak grain production will occur secondary to the combined remaining energy dependent saturation capacity of ammonia production.

    The first derivative of economic growth that has been dependent on population expansion and energy and food expansion since the origins of the human species will slow to zero and thereafter become negative.

    Debt dependent saturation macroeconomics has heretofore occurred under the umbrella of an expanding energy base, an expanding food base, and expanding population, the latter of which was the recipient of forward consumption with debt obligation.

    Global saturation of energy production, food production, and population will change the rapid growth dynamics of the forward consumption debt driven system.  Under the umbrella of an asymptotic peak population curve - housing production and durable goods production over the next 50-60 years will slow and with it the rate of private debt expansion.  

    Large and small banks dependent on private debt expansion for solvency will be forced to simulate  the Wall Street Financial Industry who make money from speculation and partnering defacto or in actuality with the central bank and congress.

    Ahead lies the new world energy and population saturation dynamic. The world macroeconomy is still operating on the old debt expansion- growth saturation dynamic.  That dynamic is now poised for a dramatic nonlinear asset valuation collapse.

    For the CRB February 2010 is the 68th month of a second fractal with a base of 34 months starting in 2001.

    For the Wilshire February 2010 is the 92nd month of a second fractal with a base of 46 months starting in October 1998.

    Those exact second fractal 2x ratios of an x base are debt driven extensions from 1998, the 140th year  2x of a 69-70 year base x beginning in 1788-89, coincidentally with the timing origin of the US constitution. Easily identifiable quantum fractal growth and decay asset valuation progression from 1788-1789 are available from historical charts, showing an end of the 1788-89 first fractal base in 1858.

    Since 1998 two debt driven asset bubbles have extended the 140 year second fractal's 2x ending.  Both debt-produced bubbles have resulted in increases in private money equivalents to be used for speculation in debt instruments, real estate, commodities, equities, derivatives, and second order and more derivatives.

    (The financial industry, central bank, and politicians were collectively responsible for entrapping so many citizens in debt slavery.  The rebankrolling of the financial industry to avoid deserved collapse and bankruptcy and to reestablish a just and balanced economic system with a new citizen's central bank demonstrates the linkage of the central bank and politicians to the financial industry.)

    The  x and 2x monthly fractal series are composed weekly and daily fractal series that conform to the patterned science of saturation macroeconomics.  For scientists these empirical easily observable fractal patterns confirm a quantum deterministic process that is the sine qua non and defines a science. Saturation macroeconomic is a confirmed science.

    For the Wilshire its daily saturation peak occurred in a 27/55/54 days :: x/2-2.5x/2x  series. Its weekly growth pattern was a decaying growth series of 34/84/68 weeks :: x/2-2.5x/2x.

    The CRB's final monthly patterns were composed of two decay series: 3/7/7 months and 3/8/7 of 8months or 3/8/7/1 of 4 months.  Its final weekly pattern was 13+/32/27 weeks with 2x peaks at 27 weeks for both the second fractal and third fractal.
    The first 13 weeks was a declining fractal composed of two subfractals of 2/4/3 and 2/4/3 weeks.
     
    Debt dependent Saturation Macroeconomics is a defined science.

                                                                                                    G. Lammert







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  • The Economic Fractalist
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The (first) nonlinear break? 9-10 Februrary:
    the Nikkei, SPX, FTSE, DAX. CAC:
    East and West Equities matching decay

     

    the 6-7th day of the 4th daily fractal pattern: 4/8-9/8/6-7 days.
    9 Feb 2010, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • The Economic Fractalist
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The (first) nonlinear break? 9-10 Februrary:
    the Nikkei, SPX, FTSE, DAX. CAC:

     

    East and West Equities matching 4 phase declining growth and decay fractal pattern

     

    the 6-7th day of the 4th daily fractal pattern: 4/8-9/8/6-7 days.
    9 Feb 2010, 06:46 AM Reply Like
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