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  • Is the Federal Reserve a Force Beyond Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics? 0 comments
    Apr 25, 2010 7:18 PM
    Quo Vadis? The comparative quantum fractal saturation areas of the NIKKEI, the FTSE, and the WILSHIRE

    The Federal Reserve has taken  extraordinary measures in the last 13 months. At the end of  February 2009 US treasury data shows US debt to be 6579 billion with the Federal Reserve Banks owning 582 billion of federal debt securities HELD BY THE PUBLIC. 13 months later at the end of March 2010, US debt was 8290 billion with the Federal Reserve owning 776 billion of US Treasury securities
    LENT TO DEALERS  and not collateralized by other securities.

    What does this accounting verbiage mean? The US Federal Reserve was certainly gaming the system with nontraditional money creation with its financial industry partners. Did the FRB lend money to the financial industry at a 2 percent Fed funds rate and allow the industry buy long term bonds pocketing the difference? In those 13 months what was the real increase in debt? Is it the difference between FY10 8290 billion -FY 09 6579 billion plus the 776 billion in noncollateralized dealer securities for a total of 2.4 trillion dollars in 13 months?  

    Qualitatively the Japanese evolution (devolution) over the last twenty years  since its apogee saturation real estate equity malinvestment peak valuation is a readily available well described, characterized, and analyzed macroeconomic model for the West and the monetary policies and gimmicks produced by the central bank--financial industry-politician collaborative.

    Currently the respective central bank interventions in terms of degree of magnitude  post the nonstochastic macroeconomic saturation hypothesis predicted 11 October 2007 global composite equity high and  later crash into 2009 in terms of trillions of currency-based monetary support are as follows:

     US > British > Japanese.

     The US central bank and monetary policy under its current Chairman and past and present US treasury secretary represent a blank check approach to the support of the financial industry and tangentially to the US macroeconomy.  While other choices of less or more stimulus and toxic asset shifting were possible, the adopted policies do not represent responsible and sustainable actions of a central bank of a sovereign nation. The policies are a grossly contorted caricature of the legacy laissiz faire intentional nonregulatory mindless characterless Federal Reserve policies established by the preceding Federal Reserve Chairman. More of same and in quintuple the quantity - the bastardization of a Adam Smith's real macroeconomy.

    Observe both the relative  percentage retracements of NIKKEI, the FTSE, and WILSHIRE and the final day of peak valuation.

    The NIKKEI has likely made its 2010 valuation peak on 2-5 April 2010, the FTSE's peak is currently on 15 April. and the Wilshire on 23 April 2010.  All are likely to have nonlinear lower valuation gaps on 26 April 2010. The relative retracement of the NIKKEI, FTSE, and WILSHIRE have been 40, 65, and 60 percent
    The Federal Reserve's massive intervention in the US treasury market, buying over 300 billion dollars of debt starting in March 2009 correlates to the incipient  rise in the US equity market. This intervention has created malinvestment in the equity and commodity markets punishing those who save and promoting speculation and inflation.

    The FTSE and Wilshire weekly patterns since  March 2009 are 19/42 of 48 weeks.  The 42 week second fractal is  composed of two subfractals: 27//56//19/48 days and 14/30/12 of 22-23 days.  This interestingly would take the Wilshire to a 34-35/83-84/83-84 week growth extension to be followed by a nonlinear crash.

    The valuation saturation pattern for the Wilshire with highers highs infers there will be an extension to 1.6-2x with the 14 first fractal base with a likely  final fractal growth pattern is likely 4/9 of 10/10 to 11 days or as stated above 14/30/22-23 days. This would represent a final peak in the second week of May 2010. The daily.

    Has the Federal Reserve with its seemingly unlimited power to provide credit to the US government extending unemployment benefits and maintaining government related jobs and directly supporting the financial industry's speculation in the equity, debt, and commodity market and the hundred trillion dollar associated derivative markets ... has the Federal Reserve intervened to such an extent as to decouple the real economy from an electronic economy?

    Will the nonlinear devaluation concluding the 19/42 of 48 week first  and second WILSHIRE/FTSE/NIKKEI  weekly fractals conclude a larger 25-26/61 of 63 to 65 month NIKKEI first and second fractal series?

    The entire March 09 19/42 week NIKKEI series can be configured into a 11/28/22 :: x/2.5x/2x week growth series with an expected decay fractal of 1.5 or 17 weeks. This would complete a 26/64-65 month first and second fractal series.
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