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  • Saturation Economics: June 11 2010: At the Brink of The Greatest Ever Synchronized Global Equity Commodity Second Fractal Nonlinear Collapse 0 comments
    Jun 11, 2010 8:04 PM
    June 4 + 7 days 2010: At the  Brink of the World's Greatest Global Nonlinear Commodity and Equity Collapse: The Wilshire-FTSE-DAX-NIKKEI Last Quantum x/2.5x/2-2.5x:13-15/37/33 Day Lower High Saturation Growth Fractal

      For Commodities(including gold) and Equities, the yearly second fractal terminal saturation areas, the monthly second fractal saturaton areas, the weekly second fractal saturation areas and the final daily 3 phase lower high growth fractal series  are now alligned with a completed weekly and daily: 9/23/18 week; the later 18 week 3rd fractal composed of 14-15/36-37/36-37 (in the nadir of  39-41 days completeld in an elegant quantum fractal manner: a 3 phase x/2.5x/2-2.5x  Lammert growth fractal series. 

    The final Wilshire  growth fractal: a 3/8/6 of 6-8+1 day 11 June 2010 fractal.  For the reciprocal US  ten year notes: a concurrent 15/35 of 35-37-38 day fractal before the blow=off to unprecedented low interest rates.

    While Monday may complete a lower second subfractal of a third fractal for the US dollar, the dollar rise will match gold's devolution over the next 3-4 weeks.

    The 9/18/23 week or 48 of 52-53 week fractal for the  composite Euro-US equity-commodity  group - both having a 21 week first fractal base will be completed in 5 additional weeks for a 53 week or 9/23/23 fractal. In this yearly, monthly, weekly synchronized second fractal series one of the greatest global valuation decreases dv/dt of all times in commodities and equities is expected while the greatest valuation in the US ten year debt instruments is expected.

      These EF  postings are intended as notebook entries of identified recurrent self organizing asset valuation quantum fractal patterns that characterize the global macroeconomy as a very exact science. 

    All entries have been posted  to validate the very exact  science that saturation macroeconomics represents- that the  macroeconomic system is  nonstochastic, deterministic, predictable, and well characterized by the  system's readily obtainable  debt/commodity/equity composite asset valuation curves.

     It is a hypothesis that shows  the macroeconomic system has definable limits and saturation areas; that it is  an elegantly mathematically simple,  mechanistic,  quantifiable, self-organizing,  self-assembling, self balancing, and self limiting integrated and continually integrating system of its countervailing elements: of sustainable and unsustainable debt growth, accumulation, and servicing; of service and manufacturing jobs related to asset production, of asset supply growth and accumulation, and of asset  valuation and total cumulative valuation - all tied together by the first time derivative of debt growth and decay and that first derivative's ability or inability to sustain forward consumption.

    Macroeconomic Saturation is a testable hypothesis of nonlinear fractal asset valuation collapse occurring at simple  mathematical time-ordered quantum  saturation areas -  defining quantitatively the time function area of collapsing asset valuation based qualitatively on precipitously weakening demand at a time of asset oversupply relative to asset overvaluation, decreasing collective wages to support the accumulated debt load, and decreasing private economy and private citizen debt growth.

    The purpose of all the notebook entries is to demonstrate with very high probability that the  macroeconomy  operates as a causal, very ordered,and highly predictable system whose overall characteristics are defined in its very observable asset valuation curves.

    The daily asset valuation fractals for the countervailing composite debt vice commodity/equity fractals  must be viewed in terms of and under the umbrella of the longer dominant integrated weekly fractals  and the weekly fractals under the umbrella of  the longer term integrated monthly and yearly  fractals.

    The monthly fractals for the US ten year note; the CRB, and the NIKKEI/Wilshire are all matching and indicate within a 1-2 month time frame,  a massive valuation increase in US ten year notes with rates at 150 year lows, ie,  less than 2 percent and a massive and nonlinear devaluation the CRB and Equities to new 14 year lows.

    Monthly Fractal Series

    TNX, the ten year note is in the terminal portion 0.5x of a large second fractal series: at 25/61 of 61-62 months :: x/2-2.5x.  The 2 to 2.5x area of the second fractal with a 25 month first fractal base or 50 to 62.5 months is the area of second fractal nonlinearity.

    The CRB is in the terminal 0.5x portion of a second fractal at month 71 of a 35/71 month first and second fractal series.

    The Nikkei is in the terminal area of 0.5x completion a second fractal of 25-26/62-63 of 63-65 months first and second fractal series matching the useful commodity copper monthly fractals.

    The Wilshire is the terminal 0.5x area a first and second fractal of 47/96 months beginning October 1998 and 9/21 years beginning in 1982 and 70/152 years beginning in 1788-89. The second 96 months is composed of the 47/96 mnth fractal is composed of a 14/35/28/22 of 22-23 month X/2.5x/2x/1.6x Lammert ideal progression and the final 28/22-23  months is composed of a 35/87.5/83-83 of87.5 week y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal.

    All major macroeconomic system asset classes debt, equity, and commodities  are on the cusp of quantum second fractal nonlinearity. The nonlinearity will correct 25-50 year asset valuation imbalances.

    Weekly Fractal Series: add a week to the 4 June 2010 posting

    For the CRB a weekly fractal series of 21/49 of 52 -53 weeks is apparent with a 48 of 52-53 week second fractal composed of a 9/23/18+1 or perfect x/2.5x/2x quantum Lammert growth progression. A nonlinear collapse over 4-5 weeks is expected to create a 21//9/23/22-23 week or 21/52-53 week x/2.5x fractal

    The Wilshire is likely to complete a 35/88/88 week fractal. The Wilshire's weekly first and second fractal series marches the CRB'st 21/49 of 52-53 weeks.  The first 3 weeks of the 21 week first fractal base beginning in February 2009 and ending 6 March 2009 was down going with fractal sequence of 3/8/8/5 weeks :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x. The Federal Reserve's massive buying of Treasury Bills was announced in early March 2009.  This down going 3 week fractal suggests the nonlinear lows in 4-5 weeks will be substantially below the 6 March 2009 low.

    The Wilshire second fractal of currently 48 weeks can be observed to follow exactly the same 9/23/18 week x/2.5x/2x pattern that the CRB is following.

    For TNX the weekly fractal seires is 12/29/23-24/14-15 of 18-19 weeks

    Daily Fractal Series
    : Beyond 4 June 2010: the posting's second paragraph

    The Wilshire's third 18 week fractal of the 9/23/18 Lammert x/2.5x/2x growth progression begins on 5 February 2010. For the FTSE, DAX and CAC the first daily fractal base was 15 days vice the Wilshire's 14 days. The composite Euro-US composite fractal growth progression is 15/35-36/39 days or x/2.5x/2-2.5x with day 36 resting at the base of the last 7 day cup.

    The Wilshire's  14/37/34 or averaged 15/36/36 :: x/2.5x/2.5x day sequence has a secondary high  on 3 June 2010 at day 33 with a 6 day extension vice 13 May 2010 of the earlier cited 14/30/26 or averaged 13/31/26 day fractal.

    The fractal progression in the last 39 days - of the averaged 15/36/39 day growth fractal :: x/2.5/2-2.5x starting on 5 February 2010 and composing the 19 week 3rd fractal of a 9/23/19 or 49 of 52-53 week second fractal to the February 09 21 week base - is composed of two caricatured fractals of 4/10/8/6 days x/2.5x/2x/1.6x and 3/8/6 days :: x/2.5x/2x.

    For the Wilshire a growth of decay 4-5/11/9/7 day fractal starting on the Wilshire's 11 October 2007 secondary  26 April 2010 high and ending on 3 June 2010 was completed. Following this a 7 day base has started with extremely low trading volume and money exiting the US equity market into treasuries with US treasuries dropping 23 percent on 10 June 2010. A  nonlinear inverse blow off of of a 7/14 or 8/16 day fractal starting on 3 June 2010 would complete the expected 3-4 weeks of the 49 of 52-53 week fractal (and simultaneously complete an ideal 35/87.5/87.5 week decay fractal) taking the Wilshire to new 14 year lows and the Nikkei to new 30 year lows.

    TNX is following a 15/34 of 34 to 36/7-15 day series.


    Predicted nonlinearity within the next 3-4 weeks with new 150 year  ten year note low interest rates and new 14-15 years low valuations for the CRB and world equities coupled with the identified quantum daily and weekly fractal patterns composing the larger monthly and yearly second fractal terminal nonlinear areas and those same recurrent fractal patterns producing the prospectively predicted 11 October 2007 Wilshire nominal high saturation area establishes Lammert quantum fractal analysis of asset valuation saturation growth and decay curves and the entity of Saturation Macroeconomics as having the patterned mathematical properties that characterize a hard science.

    The finale for the great US great second equity fractal beginning in 1848 with its 70 year base fractal starting in 1789 was always imagined to be completely nonlinear from one trading session to another.  In other words, a 60-70 percent drop from the closing to the next opening without significant interim fractal countergrowth. US Treasury and Federal Reserve intervention in the futures in the breaker periods could alter this historical nonlinearity.

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