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  • The 11 October 2007 Nominal High Was Predicted: The Wilshire's October 1998 Second Fractal Finale 0 comments
    Sep 5, 2010 6:25 PM
    5 September 2010: Quantitative Fractal Analysis' Big Picture: 27/46 of 67-68/54/41-43 days

    The Wilshire's 95 Month Second Fractal's Finale:The Wilshire's Secondary Low, Secondary High, and Final Major Low Valuations:

    The 27/68/54/41-43 day progression is a concluding x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x declining 4 phase growth and decay sequence whose base fractal for both US composite equities (see spx futures) and the inverse of US debt TNX/TYX starts on 31 March 2010 and is a 39 day perfect x/2.5x/2x/1.6x  :: 6/14/12/10 day fractal. The decay sequence is a 39/94/94-96 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay sequence ending on 17-22 February. (21 February is ironically 'President's day'.  (The president will likely 'own' the low.)

    The Interim Ideal Low: 6 October 2010
    The Final High: 21  December 2010
    The Second Nonlinear 'Crash' Ideal Low: 17 February 2011 with a possible 1.6x extension to 22 February 2011.

    The global macroeconomy is a forward debt based system.  The Macro Economy is an exquisitely self balancing system limited ultimately by the interaction of its major components: total asset supply; relative valuation of those assets; jobs producing wages to service debt load and serve as borrowing collateral for new debt creation.  All elements are codependent. Total serviceable debt, total supply of assets, and total valuation of assets relative to jobs and wages  serve as boundary limits to further system expansion.

    Monetary policy, banking lending policy, and central bank interest rates are the boron rods that control the system's amount of debt expansion and forward based economic growth.

    The composite Wilshire's October 1998 current 49/95 month fractal sequence and relative second fractal  valuation precipice has been constructed by an unusual amount of facilitated debt.

    Excesses of asset overproduction, asset valuation, and total debt load have been fostered by unusual lending terms, lack of credit review, excessively low interest rates controlled by central banks, and  engineered new debt products by financial corporations who have de facto acquired first rights on the monetary system.

    Evolving composite asset valuation fractals exactly represent a day to day, week to week, and  month to month integration of all of the interactive elements of macroeconomy and exactly represent the available 'speculative' money supply. The larger fractal time units provide clarity regarding the system's long term growth and decay and allow a peer into the future of macroeconomic growth or decay.

    The October 1998 extended Wilshire monthly fractal sequence; extended by this facilitated excessive debt and extended from  its progenitor 70/148 year fractal 1788 starting point has two monthly fractal sequences which are separated by a 9 month low to low valuation decay to growth transition fractal  between July 2002 and March 2003.

     The 9 month transition fractal is composed of 12/23 weeks :: x/2x. The first 12 weeks are aligned with the 46 month first fractal starting in October 1998. The second 23 weeks is aligned with the subsequent 18/42/33 of 38 month y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal  composing the second fractal and starting in March 2003.

    The division of the 9 month July 2002 to March 2003 results in a 49/98 month x/2x fractal ending in December 2010.

    Quantitive fractal analysis  predicted the 11 October 2007 high.

    Quantitive fractal analysis now shows a skeletalized fractal evolution with an expected low of the Wilshire in February 2011. The nonlinear event will likely come in January 2011.

    The Ideal Interim Low: 6 October 2010
    The Ideal Final High: 21December 2010 (with the possibly of a 13 day extension)
    The Ideal Second Nonlinear 'Crash' Low 17 February 2011 with a possible 1.6x extension to 22 February 2011.

    (There are three trading holidays and two 1/2day trading days in the next 5 1/2 months.)
    The Ideal low on 17 February would conclude a 49/100 month x/2x first and second fractal series beginning at the low in October 1998.

    Daily skeletalization of the Wilshire fractals began on 25 May 2010 from the 19/47 week low and points to a 49/98 month December 2010 final lower high.

    The final 100 month second fractal concludes with a 19/47/39 week: y/2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal. The Wilshire's terminal second fractal nonlinearity will likely occur in January 2011 and will exceed the 1987 nonlinearity in percentage valuation decline.

    The 19/47 week fractal x/2.5x week low to low first and second fractal's daily second are accurate to within 2/1000 percentage points for the expected second daily fractal low: 88/220 trading days: x/2.5x. (There were 221 trading days but two days were shortened trading days).

     Using the ideal growth and decay progression of Lammert fractals, a 27/68/54/41 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x growth and decay fractal will conclude a 49/100 month first and second fractal beginning in October 1998 and ending on a low on the 17 February 2011 or a 1.6x extension to 22 February 2011. Within the 27 day first fractal, using Nikkei futures as the ideal template, the entire Lammert x/2.5x/2x/1.5x series can be observed.

    Within the concluding 12 months of the October 1998 49/100 month first and second fractal series: Lammert Macroeconomic self organizing asset valuation patterns: the 4 phase fractal growth and decay patterns :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x and  the 3 phase y/2.5y/2.5y decay pattern are easily observed by the  casual of examiner.

    The macroeconomy is an exquisitely self balancing, self organizing and mathematically  precise system that follows the nonlinear quantum fractal patterns identified in the Economic Fractalist main page and Lammert Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics.
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