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Another Recession Dead Ahead?

Except during a depression, GDP always makes a new peak before the next recession. The 91-day Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index, has shown a marginal improvement from -6.13 to - 5.93, a 0.20 move to the upside. However, considering that the short term 91-day is 'noisy' (on account of the limited time frame) is subject to high volatility.

To smooth out this volatility its necessary to look at the CMI 186-day and 365-day growth indexes.

See chart;
http://www.dshort.com/charts/Consumer-Metrics-Growth-Index.html?CMI-shift-series-04

Note that during the most pronounced part of the last downturn, Q4 2008, the 365-day never went below -2%, while at present it sits at -2.88% and trending solidly down. This portends a much lower GDP number in Q4 2010 and lower still in Q1 2011. These trends in the CMI growth indices, add credence for the much dismissed double dip occuring during the first half of 2011.

Disclosure: Long physical gold and silver.