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The State of Commercial Real Estate

Commercial mortgage-backed securities went from $230 Billion issued in 2007 to only $12 Billion in 2008, thus far in 2009 the number is essentially zero.

The commercial leading indicator fell 12.9% from the first quarter of 2008.

Vacant office space is seen as a negative 81.7 million square feet this year and a negative 115.0 million next year. Vacancy rates are expected to increase to 16.1% in 2009 from 13.4% last year, and rise to 20.4% in 2010.

Retail vacancy rate forecast to rise to 12.1% this year and 15.8% next year.

Vacancy rates in the industrial sector are estimated to rise to 11.9% this year and 12.6% next year.

Hotel/motel/resort space is another matter and is not included in this report. These commercial properties are no doubt suffering from a lack of business, if the lodging vacancy rate of Las Vegas is any indication.

Disclosure: No position.