I predict earnings surprises for companies in the Russell 1000 for Institutional Investors.
My track record: 60% of my calls have had a positive return. The average return per trade is 1.2% for a 2 day hold.
Why earnings surprises Like Willie Sutton said about robbing banks, "because that's where the money is." Earnings day is when a company's stock price will move the most. Up or down. It's almost pure Alpha.
My System: Sorry, my black box is proprietary. It is based on fundamentals (i.e. not technicals).
Why am I sharing it: To establish a public papertrail. You won't get as rich data or as early, but you'll still get it.
What to expect Each week, prior to earnings releases, I will publish: company, position to take (long or short), specific dates to open and close the position. For simplicity sake, returns will be calculated as the difference between the closing price on the day the position was opened and the closing price on the day the position was closed. All trades are opened the day before (regardless of earnings release before or after market close) and closed 2 trading days after release.
Note: Be advised that actual earnings release dates may vary from those I post. The actual trade dates may therefore be appropriately shifted
|WEEK||S&P 500 RETURN||SOUTHBAY RETURN (AVG. PER TRADE)||# Trades|
|March 10 preliminary||-1.97%||2.40%||5|
|SYMBOL||EARNINGS RELEASE DATE||OPEN POSITION DATE||CLOSE POSITION DATE||CALL|