azatlin's  Instablog

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I harvest data, extract the signal and convert it into actionable trades.
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  • Trades Only Institutional Investors Get To See 0 comments
    May 1, 2014 9:26 PM

    I predict earnings surprises for companies in the Russell 1000 for Institutional Investors.

    My track record: 60% of my calls have had a positive return. The average return per trade is 1% for a 2 day hold.

    Why earnings surprises Like Willie Sutton said about robbing banks, "because that's where the money is." Earnings day is when a company's stock price will move the most. Up or down. It's almost pure Alpha.

    My System: Sorry, my black box is proprietary. It is based on fundamentals (i.e. not technicals).

    What to expect Each week, prior to earnings releases, I will publish: company, position to take (long or short), and specific dates to open/close the position.

    Note: Be advised that actual earnings release dates may vary from those I post. The actual trade dates may therefore be appropriately shifted

    Calculating Returns For simplicity sake, returns will be calculated as the difference between the closing price on the day the position was opened and the closing price on the day the position was closed. All trades are opened the day before (regardless of earnings release before or after market close) and closed 2 trading days after release.

    Good luck!


    Note: I am traveling and will not have much internet access.

    Uploading next week's picks in advance

    CFN 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Long
    DATA 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Long
    DISH 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Long
    FSLR 5/7/2014 5/6/2014 5/9/2014 Long
    G 5/8/2014 5/7/2014 5/10/2014 Long
    MCHP 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    MOS 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    ODP 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    THOR 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    TRIP 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    TRMB 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    TW 5/5/2014 5/2/2014 5/7/2014 Short
    VMC 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Short
    VSH 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Short
    WFM 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Short
    XRAY 5/6/2014 5/5/2014 5/8/2014 Short
    ZBRA 5/7/2014 5/6/2014 5/9/2014 Short
    AGN 5/8/2014 5/7/2014 5/12/2014 Short
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