azatlin's  Instablog

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I harvest data, extract the signal and convert it into actionable trades.
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  • Trades Only Institutional Investors See 0 comments
    Aug 28, 2014 2:26 PM

    I predict earnings surprises for companies in the Russell 1000 for Institutional Investors.

    My track record: 60% of my calls have had a positive return. The average return per trade is 1% for a 2 day hold.

    Why earnings surprises Like Willie Sutton said about robbing banks, "because that's where the money is." Stock prices move th emost on earnings day because of earnings surprises. Up or down. It's almost pure Alpha.

    My System: It is based on fundamentals (i.e. not technicals).

    What to expect Each week, prior to earnings releases, I will publish: company, position to take (long or short), and specific dates to open/close the position.

    Note: Be advised that actual earnings release dates may vary from those I post. It is up to you to confirm the actual dates. The results tallied here are based on the actual release dates.

    Calculating Returns For simplicity sake, returns will be calculated as the difference between the closing price on the day the position was opened and the closing price on the day the position was closed. All trades are opened the day before (regardless of earnings release before or after market close) and closed 2 trading days after release.

    Good luck!


    Absolutely crushed by the Retail space again this week.

    Out over Labor Day Weekend, so releasing next week's picks early

    TOL 9/3/2014 9/2/2014 9/4/2014 Long
    COO 9/4/2014 9/3/2014 9/8/2014 Long
    ESL 9/4/2014 9/3/2014 9/8/2014 Long
    JOY 9/4/2014 9/3/2014 9/8/2014 Long
    NAV 9/4/2014 9/3/2014 9/8/2014 Short
    PVH 9/4/2014 9/3/2014 9/8/2014 Long
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