This chart is from the excellent Doug Short on ECRI calls, recession, and the SPY.
The ECRI statement concludes with this note:
It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle. It means that the jobless rate, already above 9%, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar. Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street.
(I have my own shorthand for ECRI. It seems that upward response of their leading indicators is sufficiently robust that a reversal doesn't become significant until it exceeds (on the downside) the scope of the immediate prior move to the upside. Therefore the 2010 downward move wasn't sufficient to outweigh the prior impressive high. In 2011 the recovery move was anemic, and the downward move stronger.)