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Donald van Deventer
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Donald R. van Deventer founded the Kamakura Corporation in April, 1990 and is currently Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. van Deventer's emphasis at Kamakura Corporation is enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. The second edition of his newest book, Advanced... More
My company:
Kamakura Corporation
My blog:
Donald R. van Deventer's Kamakura Blog
My book:
Advanced Financial Risk Management, 2nd Edition 2013
  • Brasil: OGX Petroleo E Gas 1 Year Default Probability 16.48%, Up 1.73% Today 2 comments
    Jun 18, 2013 11:44 AM | about stocks: OGX

    (click to enlarge)

    OGX Petroleo E Gas 16.48 up 1.73

    Kamakura default probabilities are based on 1.76 million observations and 2046 defaults since 1990. Free trials available at

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: OGX
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  • @BlackWizardX
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    My Dear Donald, good night.


    I spotted your post about the default of OGX in Brazil, up to 1 year, is that right?
    Believes will occur?
    OGX today produces 18,200 boepd is not yet self sufficient, see the link ==


    But following apace toward self sufficiency, which is to achieve the production of 70,000 boepd.
    The custod the debt is high, titles were depreciated, agencies risk did downgrades, but the minority believe that OGX will be able to reverse their difficulties and take a leap in production soon.
    The sale of a percentage of a block to PETRONAS.
    The acquisition of more areas of exploration in Brazil, indicate that OGX is able to reverse the hard and high debt.
    Another two FPSO vessels, are in the final stages of preparation and to start producing in 2014 will be 6 more wells, which will lead to self sufficiency OGX next.
    The level of accuracy in the exploration, recovery rate of 34% certified by D & M certification of reserves, guarantee that we will be successful in conducting business.
    Good prospects exist, and the board will meet their schedules, to generate results.


    We will prove to you and to the market that we will succeed in reversing the frame hard that OGX passes the time.


    Back to chat at 1 year, and prove what you said today that OGX will be in another position in the market.


    Sure your attention, thank you.




    @ BlackwizardX
    23 Jun 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Donald van Deventer
    , contributor
    Comments (2115) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Very interesting comments. The CDS market was very harsh to BP plc during the Gulf oil spill but our default probabilities never got above an annualized 0.40%. BP liquidated a lot of its reserve assets and I have no doubt OGX could do the same. Please keep the comments coming!
    23 Jun 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
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