Rice_Rocket_Och...'s  Instablog

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Currently, an energy trader submerged in natural gas fundamentals & technicals. Former roles include senior financial trader at CVX, director of derivatives origination at BP, and spark spread term trader at Dynegy.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Analysis 6-25-09 0 comments
    Jun 26, 2009 11:32 AM | about stocks: UNG, USO

    The EIA reported a +94 build which expands the y/y surplus from +622 to +631, and +482 to the 5yr avg. This number was in line against the street estimate of +95. This week's report increases the 4 week rolling y/y s/d balance from +3.55 to +3.57. Days of supply y/y decreases from +15.37 to +14.07. Versus last  week this week's demand was higher by 2.85 bcf/d which came from core weather increases in residential/ commercial & electric. Supply stays constant at 55.5. Net is +13.4 bcf/d or +94 for the week. Using pop' weighted degree days the implied s/d this week versus last was stronger by 3 bcd/d. As a result, next week's estimate goes down from +95 to +86 and if accurate will again increase the 4 week y/y s/d  from +3.57 to +3.25. Days of supply will also decrease  from 14.07 to 13.52. Short of the story is this week showed a big improvement in s-d balance due to the prod. region matching its lowest build this injection season. This could be a result of storage operators in the prod. region slowing down injections due to capacity reaching a healthy 85% after only 3 months into the injection season.

    Disclosure: No positions


    Stocks: UNG, USO
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