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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
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TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
  • CGTS TOP AND BOTTOM WARNING WATCHLIST, FOR MONDAY 18 OCT 2010 0 comments
    Oct 18, 2010 3:05 AM | about stocks: AMGN, BYD, C, CORT, DV, EOC, ESI, ETFC, FRO, GE, HD, HMY, JDSU, AKG, MGM, MWW, NILE, PTP, RGLD, THC, TMX, TNP, VVUS, WMT, IEF, EMC, KOF, MSFT, SKF, TBT
    CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM
    FOR: 18 OCTOBER 2010, MONDAY

    CGTS VIEW:

    TBonds seem ready to start breaking down here.  Is  that good for stocks?  Not if higher interest rates are the result.  Two charts below show how inverse TBond ETFs are bottoming -- yields ready to rise.

    Foreclosuregate is going to give us a full-fisted taste of mud and dust -- brought to us by our friendly Wall Street Banks who decided to cut corners and save fees they might have to pay to local governments.  Intead, now, title/ownership of houses no longer certain.  Why continue to pay your mortfage when ownership is no longer certain?

    2010, remember, is only the Dusk/Autumn.  Darkness is here but it hasn't even taken over yet.  Growing strength of darkness from 2010 to 2019; then a slight diminishing of darkness, as light begins to slowly strengthen.  Last Autumns were 1974-1983; and 1938-1947.  Do some research on these time periods -- if you aren't old enough to have lived through them -- and you'll see how 'dark' these 6:00 PM to Midnight periods really were.

    M4 ACCUMULATION TOP AND BOTTOM WATCH LIST:

    The stocks listed below appear to be making either a top or a bottom.  We also include in our table the CGTS Indicators M4 Sum Plus (+1 is bullish; -1 is bearish; 0 is neutral) and T11 Differential (Intermediate-Term Trend reading).  We like these three elements to be telling the same story; i.e., HGX, the Housing Index, is giving a 'top' reading; M4 Sum Plus reading is -1; T11 Diff is less than zero.

    We include a few charts below of issues we think especially interesting.


    TOP WATCH      
    SYMBOL CLOSE M4 Sum Plus T11 Diff Issue Name
    ^BKX_D 45.24 -1 0.068 Banking Index
    ^HGX_D 95.37 -1 -0.141 Philadelphia Housing Sector Index Daily
    ^JPN_D 99.58 0 -0.157 Japan Index
    AMGN_D 56.71 1 0.063 Amgen
    BYD_D 7.68 0 0.055 Boyd Gaming
    C_D 3.95 0 0.008 CIT Group Daily
    CORT_D 3.73 0 0.029 Corcept Therapeutics
    DV_D 41.72 -1 -3.08 DeVry INC
    EOC_D 54.2 0 0.113 EXPRESA NATIONAL DE ELECT.CHILE
    ESI_D 56.45 -1 -1.256 Intl Educational Svc
    ETFC_D 14.67 0 0.071 E-Trade Financial Daily
    FRO_D 27.82 0 0.06 Frontier Limited Shipping
    GE_D 16.3 0 0.057 General Electric Daily
    HD_D 30.7 -1 0.058 Home Depot
    HMY_D 11.25 -1 0.022 Homestake Mining
    JDSU_D 12.25 -1 0.096 JDS Uniphase
    KGN_D 7.73 0 0.046 Keegan Resources Gold
    MGM_D 11.06 -1 -0.85 MGM Mirage
    MWW_D 13.01 0 0.077 Monster Worldwide
    NILE_D 42.28 -1 -0.183 Blue Nile
    PTP_D 43.27 0 0.05 Platinum Underwriters Insur
    RGLD_D 49.76 0 0.122 Royal Gold Inc
    SLGLF.OB_D 0.005 0 0 Silverado Gold Daily
    THC_D 4.42 -1 0.016 Tenet Healthcare
    TMX_D 14.82 -1 0.014 Telmex Daily
    TNP_D 13.1 -1 -0.029 Tsakos Energy Navigation LTD
    VVUS_D 6.53 0 0.032 VICUS Inc
    VZ_D 32.43 0 0.087 Verizon Communications
    WMT_D 53.35 -1 0.073 Walmart Daily
             
    BOTTOM WATCH      
    SYMBOL CLOSE M4 Sum Plus T11 Diff Issue Name
             
    ^TNX_D 2.576 1 -0.009 10-Year CBOE Interest Rate
    EMC_D 21.09 1 0.086 EMC Daily
    KOF_D 82.46 1 0.265 Coca-Cola Femsa
    MSFT_D 25.54 1 0.034 Microsoft Daily
    SKF_D 19.61 0 -0.108 Short Financials ETF Daily
    TBT_D 34.17 1 0.128 Ultrashort TBond 20+ Year Daily



    Stocks on the 'Bottom' and/or 'Top' list seem to be threatening to change direction.  We've tried to simplify our charts as much as possible -- these have only three technical elements, plus price data.  Let's looks at each chart and discuss what these three elements mean.

    CHARTS OF INTEREST

    VPRT, Vistaprint.
    This is an example of the M4 Accumulation Indicator.  Every interruption in an existing trend (a flattening) is a sign of resistance to the primary trend.  I have tried to mark these resistances to the primary trend on this sample chart.  VPRT is in a downtrend; but buyers have appeared and are stemming the tide of this selloff.  Trends (bottom pane, orange and red lines) are both positive; M4 Sum Plus (bottom pane, black line) is in the positive zone (+1 more recently than -1).  This formation looks a lot like the formation back in June-July of this year: a decline; resistance to the decline; a second move up; followed by a more significant decline, with resistance (buyers) attempting at several points to turn the trend back up.  Long-term the chart has a big gap on the upside to close.  I don't see that happening in one fell swoop however.  Still pretty negative on this chart at the moment.  I'm looking for a double top here, and then lower prices, testing support.



    APOL, Apollo Group.
    We read several articles over the weekend with writers suggesting APOL is a good buy candidate here.  We would disagree.  This is a terrible-looking chart, with five broken support levels in the picture.  Stay away from this one.



    BKX, Banking Index.
    Topping -- the NEXT bank squeeze has begun, Mortgagegate -- we can hope this is the beginning of the end (or is it the end of the beginning?) for the TBTF banks, which should have been shut down before we handed them a trillion dollars the last time.  Two of three elements are negative; trend always takes a bit longer to turn around.



    EMC, EMC Corp.
    It's hard to keep a good man down.  This one looks about ready to pop up again.  Buy Signal.




    HD, Home Depot
    Housing recovery?  Did someone say housing recovery?  Not any more.  Two of three elements in place for a steep decline.



    HGX, Housing Index.
    Feeble rally is ending.  Time to short housing stocks.  All three elements negative.



    MGM, MGM/Mirage.
    This stock's rally is a mirage.  All three elements negative.  This one is going down.  Sell.



    NBIX, Neurocrine Bioscience.
    Want to take a gamble on a beaten-down stock that needs to close a gap?  This one should have some upward thrust for a time being.  Trading buy.  Short-term trading interest only at this point.



    NILE, Blue Nile.
    Short Blue Nile.  It looks to be about ready to go down through significant support.



    QLTI,QLT Inc.
    We've created a pretty effective trading system using M4 Accumulation turns in the market.  This system triggers a buy signal when long- and intermediate-term trends are positive and M4 Accum hits -10, its lowest extreme.  That's why there is a buy signal here, even though M4 Sum Plus has not turned up yet.  The only thing to look for now -- in a defensive posture -- is to make sure the Intermediate-term trend doesn't turn down, indicating more selling.



    RIMM, Research in Motion.
    Keeping updated on this one for some of our readers.  Rally seems to be done.  M4 Accumulation has hit +10 and the price has flattened here.  It is currently in a classic bear pattern, making lower lows and lower highs.  Not time yet to get in here.



    SKY, Short Financials ETF.
    Of course, the Inverse Financial ETF would be one of the first inverses to change direction.  Trouble for the banks is not ending BECAUSE the banks didn't deal with their problems, they just used the government to try to cover the problems up.  2010 - 2019 will be the darkest time in this Night-Cycle.  We're just beginning our descent into the dark water.  What we've seen so far has been relatively light discord.  SKF goes up when the bank stocks go down.



    SYNA, Synaptics Inc.
    Another update for one of our readers: still not ready to get in to this one.



    TBT, Ultrashort TBond 20+ ETF.
    Is the bond rally over?  Seems to be.  Long-term this 'short long-term TBonds' ETF suggests a long-term bottoming is occuring.  Time to buy TBT.


    THC, Tenet Healthcare
    Note the series of multiple-head tops.  A weak rally seems over; and more downside action seems to be coming.



    TNX, 10-YEAR CBOE INTEREST RATE
    Cover short position.  Another indication that TBonds are heading in to choppy water.










    More information on the CGTS systems can be found at:
    home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

    MICHAEL J CLARK
    Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam
    84 4 221 92210



    Disclosure: NO POSITIONS TO DISCOLOSE.

    Disclosure: No positions to disclose.
    Stocks: AMGN, BYD, C, CORT, DV, EOC, ESI, ETFC, FRO, GE, HD, HMY, JDSU, AKG, MGM, MWW, NILE, PTP, RGLD, THC, TMX, TNP, VVUS, WMT, IEF, EMC, KOF, MSFT, SKF, TBT
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