Michael Clark's  Instablog

Michael Clark
Send Message
Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
My company:
Clark's Gate Timing System ©
    Nov 4, 2010 1:32 PM | about stocks: FRO, HURN, WBD, NFP, IAU, GLD, EOC, DNDN, BA, UUP, FXE, URR
    Wednesday, 3 November 2010


    Here comes the continued Bernanke-financed rally.  Actually, you and I are paying for this stock market rally.  Nothing is coming out of Ben's pocket, although he is doing all of the spending.

    What stands between a stock market correction and a stock market rally?  Ben Bernanke and his army of inflationistas.

    A US Dollar rally will signal the end of this world stock and commodity inflation -- we can call it a bubble, I guess.  A bubble fueled by a lot of air, a lot of windy anti-Dollarism, and not much else, in truth.  A promise to not let American stocks and bonds fall -- which promise is meant to keep American dollars from fleeing overseas.

    The Dollar has been trying to bottom recently.  As soon as it makes noises of a bottom, Dr. Ben steps in and beging cutting (paper cuts?) with his flacid tool again.  Look at a couple charts we have today illustrating the Fed's infectious disattraction for the US currency.

    One of our better trading systems (M5 3 ASP ALT LT2a) is giving a shortsell signal on UUP today, the US Dollar Bullish ETF.  A shortsell on this bullish ETF means this system thinks UUP is going lower.

    The same trading system is also giving a BUY SIGNAL on FXE, the Euro vs US Dollar ETF.

    We are getting about 95% long-trade signals versus short-trade signals.  We are going to show some of our short-sale trade signals, just to be perverse I guess.

    A stock rally with a continuing Dollar correction means, for anyone trading in US Dollar denominated issues, money made in stock appreciation is being given away in Dollar depreciation.  So Bernie is using  American Dollars to generate bubbles in foreign stock markets and in commodities -- while American citizens essentially are paying for everyone else's party.  Some might argue that it is about time for America to pay!  And that case can be made.  But why are we allowing this man to do this?  Is this debt-party Bernie is creating for the world, really in America's interest?

    Oh, we have another chart suggesting more Dollar weakness against the Euro -- if you needed more such information.

    Is a weaker Dollar really going to make the American economy more competitive with the world?  Or is it going to make Americans poorer, as it exports inflationary pressures all around the world and raises the costs of doing business (commodities are anti-Dollar instruments)?  Is the plan to flood the world with so much Dollar-money that the world will turn around and buy American products and put an end to the Greatest Depression?  Is that a fantasy?  Is a world where no one wants to own US Dollar instruments except the Fed really a strong advertisement for investing in America?

    Bernanke wants to spent another $500 Billion to get the American economy moving again.  The first trillion and a half didn't do much, apparently, except to save the banks and to provide Wall Street bankers with even higher bonuses -- while millions of suddenly-poor Americans were losing their jobs and being kicked out of their homes.

    I guess we know who rules America.


    Gold stock issues bottoming.  Gold (Physical Gold) issues topping.

    21 Issues bottoming; 64 issues topping.  Two shipping issues bottoming; one shipping issues giving a short-sell signal (see Trading Ideas below).

    BOTTOM WATCH      
    SYMBOL CLOSE T11 Diff M4 Sum Plus Issue Name
    ^HGX_D 97.24 -0.09 1 Philadelphia Housing Sector Index Daily
    ^HUI_D 527.17 1.376 1 Gold Stock Index Daily
    ^VIX_D 21.57 0.399 1 CRB Volatility Index Daily
    ^XAU_D 206.31 0.37 -1 Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily
    ABX_D 48.74 0.128 1 American Barricks Gold
    ANV_D 25.27 -0.137 -1 Allied Nevada Gold Corp
    CDXS_D 11.15 0.76 1 Codexis Inc
    CPA_D 50.8 -0.146 1 Copa Holdings SA-A
    DHI_D 11.06 0.022 1 DR Horton Daily
    DV_D 48.51 0.566 1 DeVry INC
    FRO_D 28.85 -0.024 1 Frontier Limited Shipping
    GAZ_D 7.89 0.079 -1 Natural Gas ETF
    GG_D 44.99 0.093 1 Gold Corp
    GGB_D 13.38 -0.037 1 GERDAU S.A.
    GGCRF.PK_D 0.54 0.029 1 Genco Resources
    GMR_D 4.23 0.203 1 General Maritime Shipping
    GSS_D 5.12 0.016 -1 Golden Star Resource Gold
    HMA_D 7.93 0.038 1 Health-Management Assoc
    HMY_D 11.57 0.023 1 Homestake Mining
    HURN_D 20.12 -0.11 -1 Huron Consulting
    KGN_D 8.01 0.109 1 Keegan Resources Gold
    NANO_D 14.18 -0.051 1 Nanometrics Inc
    NILE_D 44.2 -0.12 1 Blue Nile
    NXG_D 2.85 -0.022 -1 Northgate Minerals
    PPD_D 61.47 0.656 1 Prepaid Legal Services
    QLTI_D 5.77 -0.018 1 QLT Inc (Biotech)
    RGLD_D 50.07 0.105 1 Royal Gold Inc
    SAN_D 95.63 0.323 1 Banco Santander Chile SA
    TNK_D 12.18 0.014 -1 Teekay Tankers Ltd.
    TOL_D 18.52 0.03 1 Toll Brothers
    USSIF.PK_D 0.531 0.011 1 US Silver Corp
    VVUS_D 7.25 0.164 1 VIVUS Inc
    VZ_D 32.8 0.079 1 Verizon Communications
    WPRT_D 18.55 0.059 -1 Westport Innovations
    X_D 44.85 -0.096 1 US Steel Corp
    TOP WATCH        
    SYMBOL CLOSE T11 Diff M4 Sum Plus Issue Name
    ^DRG_D 311.607 0.424 -1 Pharmaceutical Index
    ^SMSI_D 1,104.40 2.098 -1 Madrid General Index Daily
    ACN_D 44.99 0.084 -1 Accenture PLC
    AMSC_D 36.555 -0.11 -1 American Superconductor
    ARO_D 24.02 -0.275 -1 Aeropostale Daily
    AXPW.OB_D 0.57 -0.017 -1 AXION
    BCRX_D 4.88 0.006 -1 BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
    BMI_D 41.45 0.097 -1 Badger Meter
    BP_D 41.42 0.15 1 British Petroleum Daily
    BSX_D 6.44 0.03 1 Boston Scientific
    CAB_D 22.07 0.141 1 Cabela's Inc
    CHOP_D 6.01 0.024 1 China Gerui Adv Materials
    COL_D 59.71 0.085 1 Rockwell Collins Daily
    COP_D 59.34 0.124 -1 Conoco Philips Daily
    CYTX_D 4.77 -0.112 -1 Cytori Therapeutics
    ELY_D 7.04 0.018 -1 Calahan Golf
    ENDP_D 35.36 0.146 -1 Endo Pharmaceuticals
    EQR_D 48.9 0.103 -1 Equity Residential
    EUFN_D 23.064 0.06 -1 Euorpean Financial Index
    EWJ_D 9.99 0.008 -1 Japan Index ETF
    EWP_D 42.9 0.144 -1 Spain Index
    FDX_D 87.03 0.194 -1 Federal Express
    FISV_D 54.67 0.129 -1 Fiserve Inc
    FITB_D 12.44 0.035 1 First Third Bancorp
    FNMA.OB_D 0.385 0.009 1 Fannie Mae Daily
    FSLR_D 137.64 -4.503 -1 FIRST SOLAR
    GES_D 39.91 -0.285 -1 Guess? Inc
    GNK_D 16.42 0.036 1 Genco Shipping Corp
    GNW_D 11.69 -0.303 -1 Genworth Financial
    HAL_D 31.4 -0.368 -1 Haliburton
    HLF_D 62.75 0.187 -1 HERBALIFE
    HMC_D 34.25 0.067 -1 Honda Motor Company
    HME_D 54.92 0.14 -1 Home Properties Inc
    HOT_D 54.81 0.206 1 Starwood Hotels
    HQS_D 3.35 0.016 -1 HQ Sustainable Maritime
    HSIC_D 57.02 0.078 -1 Henry Schein
    IO_D 4.97 0.035 -1 Ion corp
    ITMN_D 13.48 -0.118 -1 Intermune Inc
    JJM_D 43.38 0.108 1 Industrial Metals ETN
    JOSB_D 42.85 0.146 -1 JOS A. Bank Clothiers
    KGJI_D 7.05 -0.134 -1 Kinggold Jewelry
    LXRX_D 1.64 0.01 -1 Lexicon Pharmaceutical
    MMM_D 84.8 0.097 -1 3-M Daily
    MRK_D 36.61 0.043 -1 Merk Pharmaceuticals Daily
    NIB_D 40.5 0.072 1 Cocoa ETF
    NKE_D 81.75 0.173 1 Nike Daily
    O_D 34.24 0.058 -1 Realty Income Corp
    PDLI_D 5.39 -0.01 -1 Protein Design Labs
    PFE_D 17.45 0.039 -1 Phizer Drugs Daily
    PTP_D 43.91 0.05 1 Platinum Underwriters Insur
    RRGB_D 20 0.055 -1 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
    RY_D 53.66 0.155 -1 Royal Bank of Canada
    SAP_D 52.27 0.092 -1 SAP
    SHLD_D 72.27 0.216 -1 Sears Holdings
    SLG_D 67.32 0.201 -1 SL Green Realty
    SNE_D 32.71 0.107 1 Sony Daily
    STD_D 12.56 0.022 -1 Banco Santander
    TLCR_D 23.61 0.073 -1 Talecris Biotherapeutics
    UPS_D 68.3 0.136 -1 United Parcel Service Daily
    URR_D 31.57 0.087 -1 Double Long Euro
    VCI_D 33.38 -0.258 -1 Valassis Communications
    VLO_D 18 0.05 1 Valero Corp
    VTAL_D 13.46 0.036 -1 Vital Images

    We include a few charts below of issues we think especially interesting.

    Black Line: M4 Accumulation: primary momentum indicator.
    Red Line: M5 3 Test Momentum Indicator: leading momentum indicator, showing future direction of trend.
    Orange Line: M5 3 Test Average (Moving Average of M5 3 Test Momentum Indicator).
    Black Line: M4 Sum Plus Spike: +1 to zero: positive; -1 to zero: negative.  Two consecutive days at +1 generally are bullish; two consecutive days at -1 are bearish.
    Red Line: Intermediate-Term Trend.
    Brown Line: M2F ALT: overbought +80; oversold-20.
    Red Line: Short-Term Trend.


    BA, Boeing.
    Topping.  Everything is tilting down.  It would be a good time to take profits here.

    DNDN, Dendreon Corp.
    Seems ready to take off.  Old high is within shouting distance. Trends are negative but trends always move last.

    EOC, Empresa National De Elect.  Chile.

    Have to love this chart.  An old high is ready to be shattered in this move.

    GLD, Spider Gold Shares.
    What's going on with GLD?  M4 Accum says its going lower.  M5 3 Momentum (red line, Top Pane) is trying to put in a bottom.  M2F Alt (Bottom Pane, brown line) is overbought, and declining, suggesting lower prices.  Gold has a wonderful power of its own today; and it's very hard to bet against.

    IAU, Gold ETF.
    Almost the same picture as GLD above.  Should come down; but may not.

    NFP, National Financial Partners Insurance.
    NFP doesn't look good here.  Seems to be breaking down.  M4 Sum Plus is now negative.  An attempted rally in M2F ALT (bottom pane, brown line) was pathetic.

    WBD, Winn-Bill-Dann Foods
    Price hasn't broken down yet.  But it should (I hesitate to say 'it will', given the HUGE and unprecedented governmental support for the markets here).  Should be selling today and for the next few days.

    HURN, Huron Consulting.
    We've been shorting HURN for much of the year.  Another short-sell signal today.  But, in terms of the M4 Accumulation Indicator, we should get a bit of a push up here.  T11 is still negative (Middle Pane, red line) -- we can't have much of a rally until that turns up.

    XAU, Gold/Silver Stock Index.
    IAU and GLD above represent physical gold prices.  They both suggest a top.  XAU represents gold and silver shares.  It seems to be bottoming here.  Although it is short-term overbought and might come down a bit before it challenges new highs.



    We had about 50 BUY SIGNALS today for every SHORTSELL SIGNAL.  Why are we highlighting the shortsell signals?  Sheer perversity perhaps.  As I stated, we are about 95% long this market.

    FRO, Frontline Limited Shipping.
    More fallout from Shipping Terror or just more questions about the recovery?  At the top of a tight trading range and ready to start down again.

    So, all the bad news in housing is not out yet.  Please, never let us lie to ourselves and create another housing bubble.  Stock market bubbles are hard enough to deal with -- but housing bubbles cripple a society for nearly two decades.

    More information on the CGTS systems can be found at:

    Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam
    84 4 221 92210


    Disclosure: Nothing to disclose.
Back To Michael Clark's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.