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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • MORE SHORTSELL SIGNALS TODAY. IS THE RALLY ALREADY OVER? SELLING TO START AGAIN. 2 comments
    Nov 22, 2012 4:03 AM

    OK. WE HAD ONE DAY OF STRONG BUY, FOLLOWED BY TWO DAYS OF HEROIC RESISTANCE TO SELLING. WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?

    Well, in my view, it means that the Bear is still in charge. The markets are now short-term overbought -- and most issues didn't gain much, merely treading water. One of our best trading systems gave the following readings over the last two days. Note again, the only long signals today are for two INVERSE BEAR ETF's: China and Short Industrials:

     

     

    SYMBOL CLOSE TODAY YESTERDAY COMPANY
             
    AFFX 3.22 Enter Short   Affymetrics Inc.
    AVEO 6.71 Enter Short   AVEO Pharmaceuticals
    CHK 17.59 Enter Short   Chesapeake Energy
    HLF 48.67 Enter Short   HERBALIFE
    KGN 4.08 Enter Short   Keegan Resources Gold
    KSU 76.33 Enter Short   KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
    LXRX 1.72 Enter Short   Lexicon Pharmaceutical
    NAB.AX 23.64 Enter Short   National Bank of Australia
    NILE 37.39 Enter Short   Blue Nile
    SCHN 27.82 Enter Short   Schnitzer Steel Indust
    ^TNX 1.687   Enter Short 10-Year CBOE Interest Rate
    DDD 41.41   Enter Short 3D Systems
    DNDN 4.39   Enter Short Dendreon Corp
    EXM 0.451   Enter Short Excel Maritime Carriers
    MAKO 13.95   Enter Short Mako Surgical Corp
    MET 32.84   Enter Short MET LIFE INSURANCE
    UNH 53.53   Enter Short United Healthcare Daily
    AIG 32.67     American Intl Group Daily
    ETFC 8.11     E-Trade Financial Daily
    EZCH 36.95     EZChip Semiconductor
    LNKD 107.59     Linked In
    RGR 53.07     Sturm Ruger
    AXPW 0.26   Enter Long AXION
    TNP 3.94   Enter Long Tsakos Energy Navigation LTD
    FXP 21.89 Enter Long   Short FTSEChina Index ETF Daily
    SIJ 30.75 Enter Long   Short Industrials ETF Daily

    On Seeking Alpha over the last few days we had all kinds of stories about the 'New Bull Market' and 'Did Apple Bottom on Friday?' -- I guess I would answer both of these questions: NO.

    Did Apple bottom on Friday? Let's look at an AAPL chart -- in fact, AAPL is giving a short-sell signal today and would appear on our list above if it had not already given a shortsell signal back in September:

    (click to enlarge)

    Not a positive picture for Apple Computer.

    So, what about the market generally? The rally is already overbought; and it did not really go anywhere. My view is that we are ready for another leg down. Let's look at the S&P 500 Index (negative) and the US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP -- positive, which seems to be negative for stocks). The last three days have been a pullback in the US Dollar. If the Dollar resumes its climb, then stocks should resume their decline:

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    INDIVIDUAL STOCKS TO TRADE (see table above)

    (click to enlarge)

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    I am not a perma-bear. When buying turns my system back to "GO" I will announce this to my readers.

    Best,

    Michael J. Clark

    CGTS, Hanoi, Vietnam

    22 November 2012

    The anniversary of the murder of President John F. Kennedy by the Old Money Patriarchs (Big Oil in Texas, Mafia in New Orleans, CIA, with coverup assistance from J Edgar Hoover and the FBI). INFAMY.

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Comments (2)
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  • SidSilver
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    Michael,
    Which parameters in these charts do you use to decide it's overbought? For example from Aug to mid Sep your charts show aapl as overbought but aapl didn't fall in that period. It went up.
    22 Nov 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (11472) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My short-term OB/OS indicator is what I call M2F ALT which is the blue green line in the second pane down from the top. I meant to mark them all with the 'overbought' or 'oversold' tag. Overbought is greater than 90 and oversold less than 10. Although the movement of the indicator is what is important -- for instance, in a rally what carries the indicator to 70 instead of 100, this tells us that the buyers did not muster much strength.

     

    I do not consider the OB/OS indicators by themselves. They are of secondary importance only. The most important indicators are the more long-term momentum indicators I work with: in the charts above the most important indicators are: 1) M2F Plus Trend, red line, 5th from top; 2) M4 Sum Plus 21, black line, third from top; and 3) the 'shape' of the trends (higher highs, higher lows are bullish) -- red lines in second and third panes down.

     

    The OB/OS indicators are especially useful as countersigns in a given move. That is, when a stock is bearish by the major indicators, then an overbought reading is a sign for potential shorting in terms of timing. When a stock is bullish by the major indicators, then an oversold reading indicates a possible time to buy a stock.

     

    I hope that helps.

     

    The chart above says Apple, at this specific moment in time, today, is short-term overbought -- and is bearish in terms of the long-term indicators. Our #1 long-term indicator (M2F alt Plus) gave a shortsell signal in September: -1. It is a buy from the point it goes to +1 to the time if goes to -1.
    22 Nov 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
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