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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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  • IS THE WEST VANISHING BACK INTO THE OCEAN OF HISTORICAL DISSOLUTION? WHAT IS THE MAYAN CALENDAR TRYING TO TELL US? IS DECEMBER 21, 2012 THE BIRTHDATE OF THE 'NEXT' JESUS CHRIST FIGURE? 2 comments
    Dec 12, 2012 10:22 AM

    WHAT DOES THE MAYAN CALENDAR TELL US? WHAT DOES DEBT LEVELS TELL US ABOUT WHAT IS COMING TO OUR CIVILIZATION?

    We have all heard about the Mayan Calendar 'Long Count' that is set to 'expire' in one month, on December 21, 2012. We have heard a great deal about the end of the world and what this means for 'the world as we know it'.

    I have not studied this Mayan Calendar very closely, I have to admit. I have read John Lash's take on the Long Count and its technical factors. What interests me is that Lash suggests that the Long Count is very similar to what I call a Day-Cycle (on a much larger scale). A Male-Dominated outward-expansion and period of historical orthodox evolution -- an inflation of the physical world on the order of what Lash calls 'the revealed orthodox' religions, at the expense of the Nature-Wisdom religions that honors the Female Goddess, the principles of equality and love (Libra, the astrological sign of Liberty (freedom), Law, and Love (Libra is ruled by Venus, the goddess of Love) is the place on my time wheel where this transition takes place.

    According to Lash, the Mayan Long Count Calendar begins in 3114 BCE and ends, of course, in 2012, this year. This is a total of 5126 years, which we can double to get a full cycle of Day (the Long-Count itself) and Night (the coming Dark Age associated with the Long-Count): a total of 10,252 years.

    My own 36-year cycles do not converge nicely (as a whole number) with this Long-Count full cycle: divide 10,252 years by 36 years and you get 284.777 periods. 284 is an interesting number in that it connects to the Venus cycle -- when viewed from the Earth a full synodic period (a full conjunction with the sun back to the same heavenly point) takes 284 days. If we divide 10,525 years by a larger cycle of 360 years we get 28.4 -- which connects both to the Moon (28 day monthly cycle) and to Saturn (28 year cycle).

    The Mayan Cycle does not fit perfectly with my nascent cyclical research; and I will not attempt to force it to fit. However, our conceptual understanding does coincide. What Lash says is that the 5,128 year cycle that ends in a month is comparable to what I call the Day-Cycle. This suggests that a major Night-Cycle or Dark Age begins (clicks in) slowly in a month.

    Is this true? Is this a reality, or just a dream of an aboriginal culture overlaid on a modern fabric? I don't know. We will find out eventually.

    This does not mean that this all happens at once on December 21, 2012.

    Lash's conclusions about the culmination of this Long Count is very similar to my own vision of what the world is approaching -- what I have suggested is another stage of the Christian Crusades against Islam and the implosion of the White Sun (the White Hole that spews out Matter) into the Black Sun (the Black Hole that collapses in on itself and destroys matter and destroys the material world).

    America has two forces and two futures: the Patriarchal force identifies with America-as-Rome and wants to extend the influence of the American Empire around the globe as far as possible through the use of its military as the police-arm of Capitalism -- getting richer and richer is the goal of this 'dream' -- it's an old-new form of Colonialism. This is the idea/energy that Lash says is dying and ends December 21, 2012.

    The second future of America was present at her birth, and was represented by Thomas Jefferson as the America-as-Greece idea, the decentralized agrarian, philosopher-farmer archetype vision. This is the matriarchal idea -- the Earth as Master -- and this vision implies secession from Washington/New York and the breakdown of America into the Dark Age germination similar to the post-Roman Empire Dark Age of rest. (Germination is an intersting word: it breaks down into 'German-Nation'. Was it not Germanic tribes that disassembled the Roman Empire piece-by-piece, bringing the edifice back down to Earth, using the remnants of Rome as fertilizer through the Gothic night to nurture the 'seeds' of the Roman fruit which later became the new plants of the European Renaissance?)

    In Lash's view, the Patriarchal World Domination Empire-Civilizaton period defined by the Long-Count IS the Dark-Age. His view is that the passing of this Long-Count Day-Cycle will result in a period of Nature-Rule, true sexual equality and respect and love. He sees the Day-Cycle as being a period of madness that ends when the split between Dark and Light which is the nature of the Day-Cycle will be healed by the mystic marriage of the two principles, defined by the expiration of the separation, December 21, 2012.

    Oswald Spengler distinguishes between the Patriarchal Empire Period (what I call the Day), calling in Civilization, and the Matriarchal Earth-Wisdom Period (the Night), calling it Culture, with a capital C.

    Lash writes:

    Narrative Spell

    So, my expanded definition of Kali Yuga is: the age of darkness (ignorance) and decadence (moral and material derangement), due to the break from Goddess wisdom, the imposition of off-planet morality dictated by a father god, and the cancerous spread of faith-based religion operating on the theocratic authority of The Book (Torah, Bible, Koran). Over the last 5000 years, the entire human species has fallen under the thrall of The Book. In Not in His Image, I propose the term narrative spell for the uncanny power of the salvationist script that encodes the beliefs of the three Abrahamic religions.

    The mandate of the male-only creator god has a vast, fixating power based in fear and shaming. Those who adopt the Paternal Lie, or, more often, have it mindlessly imposed on them, live it out as if they are acting under post-hypnotic suggestion. Those who are forced to believe in the story of revealed religion enact it madly and without critical reflection or restraint. What they have received mindlessly, without consent, they act out mindlessly, disregarding the free choice of others. They behave as they believe. What they are told to believe is inscribed in The Book (Torah, Bible, Koran).

    The end of the Long Count plunges the entire world into the violent drama of the culmination of such behavior.

    In my own study I view the Noon Hour (1929, 1965, 2001) as the transition of the White Hole into the Black Hole. In my scenario, this Black Hole destruction of matter lasts 18 years. In Lash's version, it lasts much longer. Lash views the Patriarchal Age (Day-Cycle) as the Dark Age -- and the Night-Cycle as a salvation from this de-humanizing 'Missionary position' -- men always on top.

    There is always a paradox at work. Material light is spiritual darkness. Material darkness is spiritual light. It is dark at night, but the dream transforms the darkness into a form of spiritual, inner-generated translucence.

    Men will become dreamers instead of doers, poets instead of engineers and scientists -- thinkers and shaman, priests and philosophers again. I guess that is the essence of what Lash sees happening at the end of the Day-Cycle, 2012. Earth and Nature become cut-off from the Sky-Gods, who operate through revelation and injuction, ordered through the medium of the Holy Book.

    I am a writer. I am a writer who writes Holy Books also, who writes for God essentially -- uses writing as a medium for communication with God. Because of this, I see the importance of both sides of the world, both the Day-Cycle and the Night-Cycle. Mercury sees both sides, and lives in both worlds. Mercury is the rarity, the symbol of the Soul. The Soul, in fact, determines which side rules. During Day-Cycles, Mercury (as Michael the Archangel) sides with the Father God in Heaven and vitalizes the physical world, the world of objects, science and reason and business. But during the Night-Cycle, Mercury (as Jesus Christ) changes sides, loving the woman, becoming the Apostle of Love, siding with the poor against the rich, abstracting his energy from the form side, from Heaven, bringing decline to the Empire, to Civilization. The Soul abandons Heaven when he/she awakens to find that the Empire, Civilization, has no Soul and wants no Soul, wants only money, power, and pleasure -- more debt, in other words.

    In the Mayan Calendar, 21 December 2012 represents the point -- I am suggesting this -- at which the Soul, Mercury, abansons the Empire, the West, the White Man's Reason and Day-Cycle Power and chooses to love the woman instead, becomes the Rejected One of Civilization, becomes Jesus Christ, going down among the poor and the weak Earthlings, abandoning his home in Heaven, choosing to become the Prodigal Son, the Buddha who leaves his palace and journeys back into Nature.

    Michael the Archangel is always represented with a sword in his right hand and the scales of balance in his left hand. The sword in his right hand (as Aries or Mars, the beginning of the Day-Cycle) is the Michael half of this whole vision, Adam, the first Man, Adam the Red, or Mars, the soldier who drives off the darkness, who defends the Patriarchy at Dawn.

    The scale of balance in Michael's left hand represents the Jesus Christ aspect of his total nature, in Libra, the 7th Day of the Day Cycle, the final judge of the living, the Last Judgment, but also his transition from the Energy of Power and Will and as Material Warrior as Michael/Mars (who casts Satan into the darkness and out of Heaven) to the Energy of Love (as Libra, the sign of Law and Freedom, is governed by Venus, the Goddess of Love), and as Spiritual Warrior -- in the Night defending the woman as in the Day he helped to suppress the woman.

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    The myth of Jesus and Mary Magdelaine as lovers stems from this very curious and reasonable iconography. When Jesus is subsequently crucified, for threatening the Patriarchy, the Empire and the Capitalistic Civilization, darkness falls across the land. Heaven is gone. The Empire is gone. And the Dark Ages, the Night, rules. Thus, the meek, those living close to the Earth, do, in fact, 'inherit the Earth'.

    In fact, the Virgin Mary is the Moon of the welcoming Night-Cycle -- Venus and Mary are obviously connected in Libra as Venus is 'born from the sea' and Mary, from the root 'mare', means 'the sea' -- as the Sun (Jesus) descends through the Virgin Mary (the Virgin Sea) in 'an immaculate manner' (the Holy Ghost passing through the Virgin Mary) in order 'to be born' in the lower world of the Night-Cycle.

    The Moon is the female emblem, the Womb, the Virgin Womb, by and through which (through whom) SPIRITUAL BIRTH is accomplished, in this transition from Day-Cycle Empire (the White Hole of Jupiter's Expansion) and Patriarchy to Night-Cycle Culture (the Black Hole of Saturn's Contraction and Deflation) and Matriarchy.

    In my vision, 21 December 2012, with be the birth-date of the Jesus energy returning to the Earth. In 2012, the Dark Age (the D'Ark Age) begins.

    ***

    What does this have to do with world-debt?

    In a spiritual sense, debt is sin. Debt is karmic; something you owe someone else. Something one must pay-back. 'Pay-Back Time' is essentially what karma is about. What one borrows -- anything, but money also -- one must return.

    In history, borrowed money on a grand scale seems to be attached karmically to depression -- financial, moral, and emotional or spiritual depression. This depression is called Hell, Hades, Sheol in religious writing. The decline. Winter. Pay-Back Time.

    Or, as Leonard Cohen calls it: "Closing Time".

    All the women tear their blouses off

    The men they dance on the polka-dots

    And it's partner found and partner lost

    And it's hell to pay when the fiddler stops

    It's closing time

    As debt is tied to depression, depression is tied to social and political chaos, class warfare, civil and foreign war and deprivation.

    War and Hell are clearly connected. War is the literal karmic destruction of matter, material objects, the forms that are built (and the social forms as well) during the preceding building cycle, what I call the Day-Cycle.

    Apparently, what Leonard Cohen called 'Closing Time' was very similar to what the Mayans believe December 21, 20012 was or will be.

    Perhaps we should start with a picture of American total debt, since there is no clearer picture (I believe) as to what is wrong with America, and with America's economy.

    (click to enlarge)

    Last week I wrote an article suggesting that Canadian and Australian banks were a short-sell, and that the Housing Bubble cancer in both countries were destroy each of these relatively unharmed countries as it had Spain and Ireland. There is a difference between Canada and Australia and Spain and Ireland.

    Canada and Australia are resource-based economies, having plenty of raw materials for export. Ireland and Spain have and had little such cushion through exports. But a contracting global economy, and especially a Chinese contraction (crash-landing?) would affect both Canada and Australia dramatically.

    Lucky for Canada and Australia that they were not heavily indebted, right? But they are heavily indebted. Both countries had nearly double the debt, compared to their Gross Domestic Product, they have ever had. Both were in the continuing throes of a Housing Bubble -- which phenomena had destroyed Japan's economic empire in 1989 (the Nikkei is down 77% from 1989 highs) and China's investment miracle (the Shanghai Index is down 66% from 2008 highs), had wounded America mortally, and had through the European Union (through Ireland, Spain, and other overly-indebted nations) into decay and chaos.

    My point was that Canada and Australia were merely late coming to Hades -- but they were coming. I said we should look at debt again, with a special eye trained on Canada and Australia.

    The first chart below shows current national debt loads. Japan and the United Kingdom are in the worst shape, the most indebted nations in the world -- and Greece is being punished mainly because its GDP picture has weakened so much. Ireland is still in a horrible debt situation, despite all the billions of EU money siphoned into (through) Ireland to pay EU banks. Spain, France and Italy are worse than America in terms of debt -- while Canada and Australia are equivalent with America. This is almost reassuring until we remember the first chart, showing America in the worst debt-to-GDP picture in its history, by far.

    A second world-debt chart shows Ireland, Netherlands, Japan and the UK going off the chart in terms of debt. France, Belgium, Spain and Finland are also in the running (if this is viewed as a kind of horse race). Again, Canada and Australia seem to be near the bottom, relative models of moderation.

    The next chart show Private Debt (only) to GDP. This shows how badly the UK is doing both in terms of total Private Debt and in terms of REDUCTION of this debt. Australia, again, is the clear winner.

    (click to enlarge)

    The picture of Australia's Private Debt to GDP, however, when viewed as a historical document -- how Australia is doing against Australia -- the picture gets VERY UGLY.

    As noted in the insta-blog below, Australia had terrific economic depressions after its debt binge in the 1890's -- the worst depression in the short history of Australia as a white country -- and after a secondary debt binge in 1929 -- the global depression, so called Great Depression -- the 1890 Depressions was also a Great, Global Depression. It is my thesis that Debt is ALWAYS followed by depression -- that debt is karmic debt, with a guaranteed karmic pay-back that destroys the world created during the debt accumulation.

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/428250-michae...

    If Australia (and every country in the world for that matter) had raised interest rates in 2001, at the end of the 1983-2001 Day-Cycle, the pay-back would have been significant --see the attempted pull-back in debt in the mid-1990s. Debt levels at that point were greater than in 1929 but still less than 1890. But then, however, global central bankers, led by US 'Masters of the Universe' Greenspan followed by Bernanke inflated the world more and more with cheaper and cheaper money, trapping millions of world borrowers with more and more debt -- as asset prices flew through the roof.

    The more debt nations and consumers and corporations took on, the more vital it became to keep interest rates low, or the ballooning debt servicing would suffocate the world economy. Soon Bernanke was spending billions a year in a (so-far) successful attempt to keep interest rates low -- to do this, of course, he and the Fed (this ploy was later followed by the EU and central banks everywhere, a ploy which had been followed by the Japanese after their melt-down in 1989, protecting debt with more debt, protecting private debt liabilities with public debt outlays, essentially using public money to protect private corporations, without any institutional ownership of those failed private corporations) bought so-called 'toxic assets' that no one else would touch, many connected with the Housing Bubble, but with the Fed also guaranteeing 100% purchase of all US TBonds issued as a way of capping interest rates.

    This guaranteed that the de-leveraging needed for economies too heavily-indebted would not happen, or would drag on for ever -- higher interest rates were needed to encourage de-leveraging, not lower interest rates. Lower interest rates encouraged more debt, the absolutely worst thing indebted nations needed.

    Lower rates were a stalling tactic, so-called 'kicking the can down the road' so the debt contagion could be put off, and become someone else's problem. Japan kicked the can down the road in 1989; as such, her 18-year deflation has now become a 23-year deflation, with no end in sight. The destruction of debt -- the shadow side of the Devil's Bargain -- the destruction of the world we create -- cannot be bargained. If the world devises ways to preserve the bad debt beyond its time -- through currency manipulation mainly -- or in Japan's case by spending all of its citizens money on servicing the debt -- then it will take longer than 18-years. The deflation could, theoretically, go on for many generations. Some people suggest that the European Dark Ages was the karmic debt of Rome for the Roman Empire. This is true metaphorically. Greece was the childhood of Rome; Rome was the adulthood of Greece (Greece become practical and realistic); and the Dark Ages was the Deflation of this dream of creation, the sleep, during which all the forms created during the Day-Cycle were deconstructed or at least abandoned until the Light of Dawn returned to help revitalize Europe -- the Dawn, of course, being the Renaissance Age of European city-states (being the Greek Childhood on another turn of the spiral).

    America is to Europe what Rome was to Greece. This makes me optimistic in the long run. America will have its Renaissance also. But from here (decadent Rome) to the glory of Renaissance Italy -- Michelangelo and Leonardo and Dante -- there is a long road through a Black Forest and a Dark Age that will last for nearly 1400 years.

    Debt kills civilizations. Debt is the death of civilizations.

    Bernanke, and the world of central bankers, now are in a terrific bind of having to keep interest rates low FOR EVER. Any tick up in interest rates represents a massive increase in expense in servicing an ever-growing debt burden. This is the dilemma that kills civilizations. Either face the devil in the Black Forest and allow deflation to do its job of destroying BAD MATTER or strip your country bare to protect your status quo, your own wealth, as you die bit-by-bit, each day the picture getting more bleak, as you use all your money to protect bad debt you are holding -- and protect the banks (that are supposedly protecting you).

    Bernanke's Fed (this is true of all central banks that have resorted to debt monetization by stealth, through currency devaluation by stealth) will have to unwind its balance sheet some day, to sell assets that it had to buy because no one else was willing to buy them. This is an example of not letting the marketplace work. Central banks are buying (making loans for) assets no one else can afford or is willing to purchase, using taxpayer money to make these purchases -- in order to pretend that nothing is happening to purchasing power. Whistling through the graveyard, in other words.

    The amount the Feds of the world are taking on is significant -- all countries are currently following this plan, as are all states of America, in an attempt to avoid having the meet the devil on a dark path at night. The global Feds are acting as the false marketplace -- if you need to sell something, and you can't sell something at the price you are asking, we will buy it, because we don't want the inflated price to fall to the level of affordability it really deserves because that would bankrupt our price-inflated system. Lower prices -- more affordability for the public -- is the enemy. And we will spend as much public money as we must in order to keep prices elevated -- which is the illusion that we are ALWAYS growing, evolving, ALWAYS MAKING PROGRES as a civilization.

    Don't let the market decide the true value of an asset UNLESS the market is deciding the price should be higher. Otherwise, that is deflation. And deflation is the enemy.

    The first two charts below show the US Fed's rate of growth of balance sheet purchases and the third chart show the Bank of England's growing balance sheet expenditures. One can tell by the shape of these charts that the so-called de-leveraging (that is not really happening) is merely the shifting of debts from the Private Sphere to the Public Sphere in order to protect the lie of the efficiency of Capitalism.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Economic expansions or inflations are fueled in their first stages by savings, and by investment from savings. This is why higher interest rates generate wealth during Deflation Seasons -- they bankrupt the careless and the faulty, those who take on a heavy debt-load at the end of the Business Cycle Growing Season (2001) -- the very speculators that Washington is currently spending taxpayer money to protect.

    Higher interest rates transfer money down from the fruit in the top of the tree, the rich, the FRUIT SYSTEM -- this happens AFTER the fruit is harvested -- from the speculators who are adept at using the capitalist system for their own enrichment -- to the bottom of the treed, the ROOT SYSTEM, back to common Americans, who benefit from riskless investment. Common Americans, thus, gain wealth from saving their money and from the strengthening of the local currency, another bi-product of the raising of interest rates. Make money more expensive to borrow; and the money one already owns becomes more and more valuable.

    When all the savings get used up, the first stage of expansion ends -- at this point, the rest of the expansion can be fueled either by 1) rising wages, which creates a measurable inflation, or by 2) rising debt, which creates an immensurable inflation, leaving monetary leaders the freedom to inflate even more.

    In the 1960-70 inflation period, wage inflation won -- and debt remained relatively low -- wage inflation won because the Left Wing and Unions dominated world political scenery. In such inflation, the banks are not favored. In the debt inflation picture, the banks are in power politically and they soak up all the profit, while the populace sinks into deeper and deeper debt.

    In America, this picture looks like this. Note the lack of financial profits and low debt in America from 1951 through 1983. Note the soaring financial profits in the Day-Cycle beginning in 1983 and the rising indebtedness of Americans.

    As this picture makes clear, bank/financial profits and debt slaver go hand-in-hand. Republican Day-Cycle Pro-Business policies are designed to make the banks rich and make the citizenry indebted.

    This is a picture of the Boom and Bust economy. And the gap growing between the society's rich and poor. I favor nationalization of the banks; and the creation of a national banking system similar to the Public Energy Utilities. Otherwise the banks will continue sucking the blood of Americans for ever, with guaranteed bank panics, thefts of public funds, and corrupt crises happening every 36 years.

    The next chart shows the extent of the Housing Bubble Debt problems in Canada and Australia, compared with the US and the UK -- which both still have huge debt bubble problems.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    The next chart shows the mortgage debt to GDP of Australia compared to the US. Australian mortgage debt to GDP is greater than the same debt in America.

    Canadian household debt is great (on a personal disposable income basis) this is American household debt.

    (click to enlarge)

    We have seen that both Australian and Canadian Housing Bubbles are worse, per capita than either American or British. The chart below shows how fast Canadian debts (household and mortgage debt) are growing above personal disposable income.

    Here is another picture of historical debt growth in Canada, compared with America. The point here is that American debt growth is not really improving through de-leveraging (but is being shifted from the private sector to the public sector). This picture suggests the extent that Canada is heading for a fall, having nearly doubled its debt level in two decades.

    (click to enlarge)

    Some Canadians and Australians dismiss the claim that their countries are moving into depression at high speed because of high debt, arguing that Private Debt is better than Public debt -- and that both countries have low ratios of public debt to private debt. Remember: private debt is the real culprit; private debt destroys economies. Remember also that Spain and Ireland had almost NO PUBLIC DEBT after their Housing Bubbles peaked -- with huge levels of Private Debt. Private Debt torpedoed their economies; and the attempt to shift private debt over to the public (to hide and protect bad private debt) swelled the level of public debt in both countries.

    Low public debt and high private debt is not a positive picture. It is NOT a safe picture. In fact, it is the picture of a nation approaching economic Armageddon.

    ***

    I came across the chart below while search a chart page on Google. I regret not being able to reference its creator.

    Readers know that I believe in concise programmable cycles of economic expansion lasting for 18 years followed by economic deflations lasting for 18 years. The 'Cycle of Deflation' chart below shows this is a different picture.

    This chart pictures a law not a tendency. A law.

    (click to enlarge)

    The period of Protectionism (and currency protectionism) is also a part of this law. We seem to be in the DEVALUATION and the COMPETITIVE DEVALUATION STAGE now in America and in the world. Attempts to diminish currency valuations (China, Japan, Switzerland, America...) IS protectionism -- and is also monetization of debt. Weaken the currency, have more currency to pay back loans, and the loans become relatively less expensive, and worth less to the holder of the notes or bonds.

    Bernanke's QE is a devaluation policy -- a backdoor monetization of debt through a weakening of the local currency -- and, above all, bank theft from the US Treasury. We have been bailing-out the Wall Street banks since 2008 -- and they apparently still are not solvent.

    I have my own version of the Deflation-Stage chart above, which includes astronomical and astrological signposts. In this chart below, the Inflation of the world runs from Midnight to Noon (involving two stages of economic growth -- the construction of forms in Nature: 1) Reflation, Winter-to-Spring; and 2) Inflation: Spring-to-Summer); Deflation of the world runs from Noon to Midnight -- the forms in nature are taken down, or deconstructed (also involving two stages of economic contraction or reversion to Ground Zero: 1) Disinflation, 2001-2010: Summer-to-Autumn; and 2) Deflation, 2010-2019: Autumn-to-Winter.

    Be reminded: during the Inflation Stage Man defeats Nature; and during the Deflation Stage, Nature defeats Man.

    (click to enlarge)

    Interest rate policy has a major problem. Waiting for the CPI to register inflation is effective IF we are in an inflation fueled by rising wages and prices but not if we are in an inflation fueled by rising debt. In the 1920's we had an inflation fueled by rising debt and prices and NOT by rising wages -- so we created a HUGE mountain of debt and needed a massive deconstruction of our debt, through depression and world war.

    In the 1960's and 70's we had an inflation fueled by rising salaries and prices, mainly because the power of the politica left increased, and the unions took over the country, pressuring wages higher. This meant the CPI did register the inflation -- and we did not build a mountain of debt. As such our economic deconstruction was less traumatic and local, not world-wide. Each country dealing with their own stagflation dramas.

    In the 1990's and beyond, we defeated the unions and created a picture of inflation similar to that of the 1920's, invisible inflation with massive Debt buildup. This is NOT good news. Massive debt (and invisible inflation) create a wonderful scenario for Global depression and world war -- the consequences of a massive mountain of debt are catastrophic, since their is so much matter that needs to be deconstructed, destroyed.

    How big a mountain of total debt do we have to destroy? The picture above shows US debt-to-GDP of 160% in 1875; of 300% in 1929; and of 360% in 2008; and of only 120% in 1970.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    I am beginning to wonder if these Night-Cycles have alternating characters

    2001-2019: Big Debt Bubble Implosions
    1965-1983: Wage-Inflation Bubble Implosions (Stagflation)
    1929-1947: Big Debt Bubble Implosions
    1893-1911: Wage-Inflation Bubble Implosions (Stagflation)
    1857-1875: Big Debt Bubble Implosions......

    We tend to think of recessions as isolated events that we can fix by doing something better. If we look at recessions as Nights and expansions as Days we see more clearly that recessions don't happen because we do something wrong -- they are programmed into our pattern, our historical DNA. We can stop fighting them, and simply prepare for them at regular intervals -- so they don't surprise us and cause us to 'panic'. See how often the word 'panic' shows up below in descriptions of Night-Cycle recessions -- "Bank Panics" to be more precise:

    We all know about the Great Depression in 1929-1947.

    What about the Night-Cycle depression of 1893-1911? (taken from Wikipedia:)

    Panic of 1893
    Jan 1893 -
    June 1894
    Failure of the United States Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment led to a stock market and banking collapse. This Panic was also precipitated in part by a run on the gold supply. The Treasury had to issue bonds to purchase enough gold. Profits, investment and income all fell, leading to political instability, the height of the U.S. populist movement and the Free Silver movement.

    Panic of 1896
    Dec 1895 -
    June 1897
    The period of 1893-97 is seen as a generally depressed cycle that had a short spurt of growth in the middle, following the Panic of 1893. Production shrank and deflation reigned.

    1899-1900 recession
    June 1899 -
    Dec 1900
    This was a mild recession in the period of general growth beginning after 1897. Evidence for a recession in this period does not show up in some annual data series.

    1902-04 recession
    Sep 1902 -Aug 1904
    Though not severe, this downturn lasted for nearly two years and saw a distinct decline in the national product. Industrial and commercial production both declined, albeit fairly modestly.[22] The recession came about a year after a 1901 stock crash.

    Panic of 1907
    May 1907 -
    June 1908
    A run on Knickerbocker Trust Company deposits on October 22, 1907, set events in motion that would lead to a severe monetary contraction. The fallout from the panic led to Congress creating the Federal Reserve System.

    Panic of 1910-1911
    Jan 1910 -
    Jan 1912
    This was a mild but lengthy recession. The national product grew by less than 1%, and commercial activity and industrial activity declined. The period was also marked by deflation.

    What about the Night-Cycle depression of 1857-1875?

    Panic of 1857
    June 1857-Dec 1858 1 year
    Failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States' railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. Over 5,000 businesses failed within the first year of the Panic, and unemployment was accompanied by protest meetings in urban areas. This is the earliest recession to which the NBER assigns specific months (rather than years) for the peak and trough.

    1860-61 recession
    Oct 1860-June 1861
    There was a recession before the American Civil War, which began April 12, 1861. Zarnowitz says the data generally show a contraction occurred in this period, but it was quite mild. A financial panic was narrowly averted in 1860 by the first use of clearing house certificates between banks.

    1865-67 recession
    April 1865-Dec 1867
    The American Civil War ended in April 1865, and the country entered a lengthy period of general deflation that lasted until 1896. The United States occasionally experienced periods of recession during the Reconstruction era. Production increased in the years following the Civil War, but the country still had financial difficulties.[15] The post-war period coincided with a period of some international financial instability.

    1869-70 recession
    June 1869-Dec 1870
    A few years after the Civil War, a short recession occurred. It was unusual since it came amid a period when railroad investment was greatly accelerating, even producing the First Transcontinental Railroad. The railroads built in this period opened up the interior of the country, giving birth to the Farmers' movement. The recession may be explained partly by ongoing financial difficulties following the war, which discouraged businesses from building up inventories. Several months into the recession, there was a major financial panic.

    Panic of 1873 and the Long Depression
    Oct 1873 -
    Mar 1879
    Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of Jay Cooke & Company, the largest bank in the United States, which burst the post-Civil War speculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests. The deflation and wage cuts of the era led to labor turmoil, such as the Great Railroad Strike of 1877. In 1879, the United States returned to the gold standard with the Specie Payment Resumption Act. This is the longest period of economic contraction recognized by the NBER. The Long Depression is sometimes held to be the entire period from 1873-96.
    ___
    This last sentence shows that the effect of Major Debt Bubbles can carry on for a long time, until the debt is eventually destroyed.

    Best Thanksgiving wishes.

    Michael J. Clark

    CGTS, Hanoi, Vietnam

    23 November 2012

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  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    MC:

     

    What that last paragraph demonstrates is the destructive economic effects of metal-based currency systems.

     

    Have a Happy Thanksgiving, if such is appropriate for Hanoi.
    22 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (8356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It's appropriate everywhere. We did not eat Turkey -- but we did eat chicken, and had a good evening.

     

    Hope you are well. Best to you and yours.

     

    MJC
    22 Nov 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
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