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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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  • STOCK SCREENING: THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY 0 comments
    Mar 19, 2013 8:01 AM

    (click to enlarge)

    STOCK SCREENING: THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE REALLY UGLY

    It is time to run a stock screen. I have been showing charts with one of my favorite indicators lately, a momentum indicator I call the M5Diff%. It is very useful in finding bottoms, tops -- ok, predicting bottoms and tops -- and is also useful as a momentum gauge: what's hot and what is not.

    Today's screen shows 32 issues that had the greatest appreciation of the M5Diff% today, and the 32 issues that had the greatest M5Diff% depreciation also.

     

     

       

    M5Diff %

     
     

    TOP 32

    M5Diff %

    1 day change

     
         

    1

    FMCC

    1,265.46

    595.308

    Freddie Mac Daily

    2

    FNMA

    850.32

    446.951

    Fannie Mae Daily

    3

    IMMR

    456.193

    51.925

    Immersion Robotics

    4

    RAVN

    337.027

    -24.095

    Raven Industries

    5

    USDGBP=X

    294.751

    -2.628

    US Dollar/British Pound

    6

    USDVND=X

    252.226

    -7.024

    US Dollar/Vietnamese Dong

    7

    HPQ

    250.81

    7.204

    Hewlett Packard Daily

    8

    AUDNZD=X

    240.244

    61.686

    Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar

    9

    USDCAD=X

    236.703

    -23.06

    US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

    10

    UUP

    234.378

    39.719

    US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH ETF

    11

    CNYCHF=X

    230.48

    -6.974

    Chinese Yuan/Swiss Franc

    12

    EXM

    215.289

    28.122

    Excel Maritime Carriers

    13

    SAI

    215.074

    16.404

    SAIC Inc *

    14

    XOMA

    214.967

    -33.323

    XOMA

    15

    HSIC

    212.993

    135.77

    Henry Schein

    16

    THLD

    211.588

    -42.063

    Threshold Pharma

    17

    Z

    207.679

    18.164

    Zillow Inc

    18

    USDCHF=X

    206.315

    -5.399

    US Dollar/Swiss Franc

    19

    FXP

    205.74

    23.373

    Short FTSEChina Index ETF Daily

    20

    AFFX

    201.338

    -15.848

    Affymetrics Inc.

    21

    AUDCAD=X

    195.578

    26.966

    Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar

    22

    VZ

    192.425

    11.137

    Verizon Communications

    23

    BBY

    191.431

    8.148

    Best Buy Daily

    24

    WPRT

    189.465

    -7.231

    Westport Innovations

    25

    P

    186.844

    -30.462

    Pandora

    26

    RRGB

    184.059

    6.396

    Red Robin Gourmet Burgers

    27

    BA

    183.161

    -35.901

    Boeing Daily

    28

    QLGC

    182.221

    -1.695

    Q-Logic

    29

    CPHD

    180.12

    -1.896

    Cepheid

    30

    IGOI

    179.57

    -18.773

    I Go INC

    31

    NANO

    178.055

    -62.275

    Nanometrics Inc

    32

    DRR

    176.199

    43.673

    Short (Double Short) EURO ETF

     

     

       

    M5Diff %

     
     

    Bottom 32

    M5Diff %

    1 day change

     
         

    32

    X

    -191.219

    -10.419

    US Steel Corp

    31

    IES.DE

    -191.942

    -54.67

    Intesa San Paolo SA

    30

    1288.HK

    -193.992

    -80.279

    Agricultural Bank of China LTD.

    29

    MT

    -194.792

    -44.786

    Arcelor-Mittal Steel

    28

    3988.HK

    -197.249

    -86.236

    Bank of China

    27

    EWM

    -201.307

    -36.037

    Malaysia Index ETF

    26

    SCCO

    -202.847

    -48.976

    Southern Copper

    25

    ECH

    -203.593

    -23.633

    ENCANA CORP

    24

    HL

    -206.156

    25.035

    Hecla Mining

    23

    KOL

    -206.733

    -25.474

    Coal ETF

    22

    EURCNY=X

    -208.801

    15.636

    Euro/Chinese Yuan

    21

    XME

    -211.694

    -19.402

    Spider Mining Metals ETF

    20

    FXF

    -213.061

    -38.328

    SWISS FRANC ETF

    19

    GGB

    -220.754

    -21.678

    GERDAU S.A.

    18

    RBS

    -223.222

    -32.506

    Royal Bank of Scotland Daily

    17

    EURARS=X

    -224.713

    23.147

    Euro/Argentine Peso

    16

    ARNA

    -227.522

    -0.109

    Arena Pharmaceuticals

    15

    JJC

    -234.38

    -72.19

    Copper ETF

    14

    COW

    -241.156

    -46.96

    Livestock ETF

    13

    UDN

    -245.316

    -43.175

    US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH

    12

    EURBRL=X

    -255.871

    -17.399

    Euro/Brazilian Real

    11

    SNP

    -258.645

    -17.881

    China Petrol & Chemical Co

    10

    BMI

    -261.531

    -63.121

    Badger Meter

    9

    CAAS

    -269.365

    63.647

    Chinese Auto Daily

    8

    PTR

    -270.057

    -27.895

    PetroChina

    7

    LD

    -276.719

    -115.528

    Lead ETF

    6

    1398.HK

    -282.882

    -70.335

    Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

    5

    FXI

    -286.771

    -26.727

    FTSE/XINHUA China 25 Index ETF

    4

    GBPCNY=X

    -328.896

    -7.734

    British Pound/Chinese Yuan

    3

    ACH

    -332.861

    -71.16

    Aluminum Corp of China

    2

    ULTA

    -349.39

    -1.079

    Ulta Salon (Cosmetics)

    1

    EURCHF=X

    -503.875

    164.799

    Euro/Swiss Franc

    What catches my eye here? Well, the global economy is not doing very well in terms of stocks. They say: "Watch copper! As copper goes, so goes the economy."

    Copper's not doing so well. Two copper stocks in the Bottom 32 -- JJC, Copper ETF, and SCCO, Southern Copper. Lead (NYSEARCA:LD) is also in the bottom 32; China Aluminum (NYSE:ACH); US Steel; Coal (NYSEARCA:KOL) is here also; Steel (NYSE:MT); Livestock (NYSEARCA:COW); global banks are here (Chinese and others); Chinese stocks are also in the bottom 32. The Euro is also taking up the bottom; and shorting the Euro is also in the Top 32 list.

    The 'Industrial' stocks -- mining, metals, 'hard' economy measures -- are the 'really ugly' charts today. JJC, Copper, has fallen from 48 to 42 and seems to be nowhere near a bottom.

    (click to enlarge)

    SCCO, Southern Copper, looks like the same chart.

    (click to enlarge)

    KOL, Coal ETF, has dropped from 27 to 23 and is going lower.

    (click to enlarge)

    BHP Billiton has fallen from 72 to 61. Is this the kind of action that makes 'experts' positive on the global economy.

    (click to enlarge)

    ACH, China Aluminium Corp, is down from almost 14 to 10, and going lower.

    (click to enlarge)

    Bank of China is in a free fall; and seems destined to fall more.

    (click to enlarge)

    There are two numbers in these tables: the first number is today's M5Diff% reading; the second number compares today's M5Diff% with yesterday's number. Hecla Mining, and at least two Euro pair are down but up today. EuroCHF is at the very bottom of the list; but it bounced up from yesterday's even lower reading.

    So, which stocks do we like from the Top 32? Which are the 'Good' stocks?

    We like HP but would not buy it here -- too late for much of a rally -- although it looks very strong now. If we felt we were in a legitimate Bull Market we would choose HP here for certain. I think we are in a Bear Market until 2019 -- so stocks, which look fairly attractive now, will be cheaper later.

    (click to enlarge)

    XOMA looks strong here as a speculative trade.

    (click to enlarge)

    Verizon is attractive as a trade, even here.

    (click to enlarge)

    When we looked at stocks that had a very high move from yesterday's M5Diff% indicator, we found some other interesting charts -- that is, using the second number in the table above.

    Saint Jude Medical looks ready to rally.

    (click to enlarge)

    EDU looks like it want to explode upward, although it has had a good move already and probably will pull back for a time.

    (click to enlarge)

    NOG looks like it wants to go higher.

    (click to enlarge)

    CDNS has a very negative differential -- and is an interesting short here -- although our indicators are generally still positive. Only M5Diff% is collapsing.

    (click to enlarge)

    LuLuLemon seems ready to fall off the chart.

    (click to enlarge)

    Still our favorite new shorts are actually longs: shorting the Euro (NYSEARCA:DRR) and China (NYSEARCA:FXP).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Best fortune,

    Michael J. Clark, CGTS

    Hanoi

    cgts@mindspring.com

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