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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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  • AMERICAN STOCKS SOAR; GLOBAL "INDUSTRIALS" ARE TANKING HOWEVER. FEDEX, CATERPILLAR, JOHN DEERE LOWER. 0 comments
    Mar 21, 2013 5:57 AM

    (click to enlarge)

    AMERICAN STOCKS RACE HIGHER; GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL STOCKS CONTINUE TO LANGUISH

    Pretty hard to be bearish. Stocks are flying up -- American stocks at least -- as if the economy is recovering, there are no risks in the global arena (fistfights in the Macedonian and Ukrainian Parliaments; a Russian Mafia/Government attempt to take over Cyprus; and Italian national without a government and with a populist comedian about to take over as the leader of the country; a new German party to the right of Merkel that wants out of the Euro and perhaps also out of the EU, that polls suggest already has 25% of the popular vote; the spectre of a bank run in European second tier countries: Portugal, Spain, Italy, France...).

    Are Americans not paying attention? We know the love of money is a strong drug. And the lure to optimism is infective. What is the alternative? Either you look back at the glory days of 2006, when everyone was becoming a millionaire, or you look forward to 2017, when everyone is destitute.

    I run a report every day to see which stocks are the strongest in my database, and which are weakest. Again, American stocks at the top, along with the US Dollar. I am 80% long in my portfolio. I am also playing the long side of this rally. But I am skeptical. I see that we are heading into trouble (capital T). I have been 'picking on' China stocks lately -- in face all 'hard' economy, commodity stocks, mining, steel, copper, iron ore..

    Zero Hedge published this chart today, showing HSBC PMI, China PMI (which is lower than HSBC's) and then the anomaly: a large decrease in electricity being used, down 13% Year-over-Year. Combine this with the fact that Chinese stocks are tanking, and heavy industry and metals stocks are tanking -- one must wonder what this says about China's so-called recovery.

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    The charts below show exports rising but employment stagnant and output charges (exports) and input prices (imports) seeming to be topping.

    (click to enlarge)

    At the same time, Japanese exports continued their collapse.

    (click to enlarge)

    Then, if all this wasn't enough, FEDEX earnings crashed, sending the stock tumbling. Global earnings disintegrated.

    (click to enlarge)

    Note that John Deere moved into our weakest stock list today also.

    (click to enlarge)

    This is not a good picture for global economic growth. Add this picture of Caterpillar earnings (show here with global GDP growth) momentum, and you should get the Big Picture (the hoarding in America is NOT the big picture). Don't worry, be happ? Apparently Bernanke does not believe the global economy is fixed. The American economy either. Full speed ahead with QE and ZIRP. Of course, the man is terrified of the thought of having to unwind $4 trillion in debt no one else would buy, just as European banking is being forced up against the wall, with the threat of panics and bank-runs.

    (click to enlarge)

    Look at the picture of World GDP growth in this chart and tell me that there is 'light at the end of the tunnel'. We seem to be going down again for the count -- and this time there will be no more 'free money' to gry to force down the throat of the Black Hole Beast, Deflation.

    One of our biggest momentum losers yesterday with XIN, Xinyuan Real Estate, China. XIN's momentum number fell 172 points today. But the stock gained a fraction. Why would this happen? M5Diff% is a 'predictive' indicator. It is configured in such a way that it warns an investor what is coming. If we look back at the same stock in 2011, we see almost the same type of M5Diff% collapse. The stock price did not move lower for some time. Then it finally began to feel the magnetic pull of M5Diff%, falling from 2.65 to 1.7 over the next few months.

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    Remember, hoarding is a sign of a top, not a bottom.

    Michael J. Clark, CGTS

    Hanoi,

    cgts@mindspring.com

    HERE'S OUR UPDATED TABLE OF MOMENTUM STOCKS

     

     

     

    STRONGEST

    SORT

    M5DIFF%

     
       

    CLOSE

    M5DIFF%

    minus yesterday

    Company

               

    1

    FMCC

    1.08

    1,577.95

    152.492

    Freddie Mac Daily

    2

    FNMA

    1.08

    1,280.99

    170.978

    Fannie Mae Daily

    3

    IMMR

    11.3

    497.145

    -3.736

    Immersion Robotics

    4

    RAVN

    32.44

    338.266

    13.089

    Raven Industries

    5

    XOMA

    3.41

    295.909

    19.769

    XOMA

    6

    KO

    39.87

    263.976

    55.985

    Coca Cola Daily

    7

    SAI

    12.84

    263.723

    23.699

    SAIC Inc *

    8

    USDGBP=X

    0.661

    261.822

    -26.375

    US Dollar/British Pound

    9

    CHG

    65.37

    250.966

    37.173

    CH Energy

    10

    HPQ

    22.92

    243.477

    0.378

    Hewlett Packard Daily

    11

    MSFT

    28.315

    238.024

    94.153

    Microsoft Daily

    12

    THLD

    4.85

    234.473

    7.012

    Threshold Pharma

    13

    USDCAD=X

    1.025

    231.428

    -27.939

    US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

    14

    IBM

    215.06

    230.177

    31.395

    IBM Daily

    15

    HSIC

    90.9

    225.81

    -1.03

    Henry Schein

    16

    EXM

    0.705

    223.404

    18.728

    Excel Maritime Carriers

    17

    BBY

    23.07

    222.644

    26.839

    Best Buy Daily

    18

    CPHD

    38.14

    221.384

    -10.118

    Cepheid

    19

    VPRT

    40.18

    218.755

    21.855

    Vistaprint NV

    20

    AUDNZD=X

    1.254

    218.45

    -52.525

    Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar

    21

    RRGB

    45.93

    217.78

    -11.504

    Red Robin Gourmet Burgers

    22

    USDVND=X

    20,936.00

    211.788

    -103.267

    US Dollar/Vietnamese Dong

    23

    Z

    53.81

    210.83

    -24.924

    Zillow Inc

    24

    XRX

    8.76

    201.5

    39.528

    Xerox

    25

    CNYCHF=X

    0.152

    199.506

    -40.458

    Chinese Yuan/Swiss Franc

    26

    QLGC

    12.12

    196.375

    7.313

    Q-Logic

    27

    HURN

    39.31

    195.993

    40.245

    Huron Consulting

    28

    BIIB

    178.1

    195.018

    39.571

    Biogen Idec

    29

    AUDCAD=X

    1.064

    194.392

    -26.798

    Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar

    30

    UUP

    22.56

    194.35

    -36.663

    US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH ETF

    31

    AFFX

    4.69

    193.839

    3.825

    Affymetrics Inc.

    32

    GSK

    45.9

    193.185

    55.843

    Glaxo-Smith Klein

    33

    P

    13.68

    189.906

    0.27

    Pandora

               
               
     

    WEAKEST

     

    SORT

    M5DIFF%

     
       

    CLOSE

    M5DIFF%

    minus yesterday

    Company

               

    32

    ^XAU

    134.49

    -177.508

    4.169

    Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily

    31

    RBS

    9.07

    -178.623

    31.32

    Royal Bank of Scotland Daily

    30

    DE

    87.74

    -180.27

    -21.892

    John Deere

    29

    EURCNY=X

    8.048

    -180.357

    43.749

    Euro/Chinese Yuan

    28

    CAF

    24.49

    -184.583

    17.946

    Morg Stanley China Shares

    27

    MUB

    109.88

    -185.226

    -3.263

    I-Shares Muni Bond Index

    26

    EURARS=X

    6.602

    -192.082

    24.4

    Euro/Argentine Peso

    25

    X

    19.45

    -194.262

    -18.162

    US Steel Corp

    24

    UDN

    26.16

    -196.404

    37.453

    US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH

    23

    MT

    13.91

    -205.105

    2.874

    Arcelor-Mittal Steel

    22

    SCCO

    36.08

    -205.258

    12.174

    Southern Copper

    21

    XME

    40.71

    -205.947

    36.873

    Spider Mining Metals ETF

    20

    BBL

    59.58

    -207.535

    13.952

    BHP Billiton

    19

    SPU

    2.05

    -210.337

    -84.476

    SkyFruit Juice China

    18

    FST

    5.63

    -210.765

    -41.82

    FOREST OIL

    17

    EURBRL=X

    2.574

    -211.231

    34.561

    Euro/Brazilian Real

    16

    HL

    4.06

    -218.535

    -10.636

    Hecla Mining

    15

    KOL

    23.16

    -219.524

    42.027

    Coal ETF

    14

    1398.HK

    5.35

    -228.27

    38.864

    Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

    13

    XIN

    4.97

    -228.906

    -172.685

    Xinyuan Real Estate China

    12

    ULTA

    77.38

    -232.202

    49.981

    Ulta Salon (Cosmetics)

    11

    JOY

    58.72

    -232.941

    -31.776

    Joy Global Machinery

    10

    SNP

    114.57

    -237.159

    9.672

    China Petrol & Chemical Co

    9

    COW

    25.85

    -242.493

    15.501

    Livestock ETF

    8

    CAAS

    5.12

    -244.364

    -23.862

    Chinese Auto Daily

    7

    FXI

    37.25

    -258.73

    17.955

    FTSE/XINHUA China 25 Index ETF

    6

    BCRX

    1.26

    -265.078

    -122.542

    BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

    5

    LD

    52.07

    -266.65

    3.604

    Lead ETF

    4

    GBPCNY=X

    9.397

    -268.643

    53.314

    British Pound/Chinese Yuan

    3

    EURCHF=X

    1.223

    -272.095

    77.636

    Euro/Swiss Franc

    2

    PTR

    134.8

    -275.825

    34.458

    PetroChina

    1

    ACH

    10.19

    -292.345

    60.264

    Aluminum Corp of China

     
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