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CGTS OPTIONS CORNER -- TRADING BOTTOM TIME? Buy calls on the VIX, and on EPV, Short Europe. Buy puts on almost everything else, including ADBE, AKAM, JDSU...see list.

CGTS DAILY TRADING SIGNALS
For 29 JULY 2011, THURSDAY


We checked in two weeks ago to try to get some sense if the trading bottom was in yet.  We said two weeks ago that it was not.  We still feel the same today.  We are getting a very clear attempted bottoming here.  Will it work?

Of course, no one knows what is coming next.  Bulls are getting nervous -- not making money is making them a bit dangerous.  They are looking for someone to blame.

Speaking of looking: are any of the bulls watching what is going on in Europe; the appointment of a new IMF head (looks like there won't be as much destructive 'sex fun' going on in the office now at least).  The new IMF Head, Christine LaGarde, who clearly looks like the latest winner of the most recent international cock-fight, former Finance Minister of France, did not do much to help her country avoid the crisis in which she now finds all of Europe standing?  I think not.

Ms LaGarde is the type of professional politician who gets ahead by not rocking the boat, by kissing the ass of the most powerful men in the room.  And she is going to 'fix' the 'European problem' how, again?  With more borrowing?  Bulls are betting on Ms. Lagarde.  I'm not.

Riots in the streets of Greece are getting more desperate and more violent.  Something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you, Mister Jones!

And bulls are arguing that Microsoft is a good buy here from a valuation standpoint?  Really?  Are they blind?  Wars and rumors of wars.  Is this the END TIME?  Yes.  Time ends every 18 years -- and this is the End Time of this cycle.

Too bad I don't own more sand.  I could make a killing selling it to those needing a place to hide their heads.

That's one person's opinion -- and, of course, I have been wrong before.

We have been working very hard to try to generate short-term trading systems and our work is proceeding quite nicely.  The table below shows the returns at the top of our intermediate-term trading systems.  The systems below we are looking to add to the top group, once they prove themselves.

These new short-term trading systems are up 101.6% since 1/13/11 buying options and buying almost exclusively put options.

CGTS OPTION  PORTFOLIO (Since 1/13/11) Active
% Gain 40722 Profit Trades
101.60% Option Trades $599,512.67 59.01
       
170605.60% M5 3 ASP LT 2a  $170,605.60 0.01
350626.36% M2F 14% Trade  $350,626.36 0.01
377031.04% M4 ACCUM 00 14  $377,031.04 0.01
302985.00% T5SS/CM ASP Swift Tr 2AD $302,985.00 0.01
181376.00% MJCF Close vs Midp Trend $181,376.00 0.01
       
  Trial    
12135.00% M5 3 TRADE 6/11 2 $12,135.00 0.01
38.10% M5 3 TRADE 6/11 3 $15,238.00 4
83.09% M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG2 $191,110.50 23
57.87% M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG2 6/11 $57,874.00 10
110.36% M4 ACCUM 21 ORIG2 $132,432.17 12
-44.09% M4 ACCUM 21 ORIG2 6/11 -$8,818.00 2
285.06% M4 ASP Trader 5/11 $199,540.00 7
0.01% M4 ASP 6/11 maybe $1.00 1
Click to enlarge

CGTS CURRENT INDEX BIAS:
NEGATIVE

We are also seeking to trade in line with the current macro bias.  About June 5, the GSPC -- S&P 500 -- went negative.  At this point we emphasized the short side of the markets, trading mostly put options.  The chart below should help to explain our 'negative bias' on the S&P 500.  We are still emphasizing short trades.

Click to enlarge

We want to 'emphasize' long trades when the two short-term trends (bottom pane, red and green lines) are positive.  When this positive confluence ends, we want to 'emphasize' short trades.  The short-term trade went negative about 4 June -- and we looked almost exclusively for put-option opportunities (with some obvious exceptions to consider, such as individual commodity ETFs, and inverse index etfs, those that appreciate when markets decline).

The S&P is trying desperately to hold support here -- 4906.63.  Will it be able to reverse its short-term trend back up?  Time will tell.  I think not, not this time.

Signals today: almost all negative.

6/28/11 STOCKS    
TUESDAY GSPC BIAS: NEGATIVE    
       
CYH M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 25.3 SHORT
>>> CYH JULY 26 PUTS 2.22 SHORT
CYTX M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 4.84 SHORT
>>> CYTX JULY 5 PUTS 0.25 SHORT
AKAM M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 30.105 SHORT
>>> AKAM July 30 puts 0.78 SHORT
EXM M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 3.07 SHORT
>>> EXM JULY 3 PUTS 0.15 SHORT
HOV M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 2.12 SHORT
>>> HOV JULY 3 PUTS 0.8 SHORT
JDSU M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 16.78 SHORT
>>> JDSU JULY 17 PUTS 0.81 SHORT
QLGC M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 15.67 SHORT
>>> QLGC JULY 17.5 PUTS 2 SHORT
TTM M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 21.98 SHORT
>>> TTM JULY 22.5 PUTS 1.25 SHORT
YNDX M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 33.99 SHORT
>>> YNDX JULY 34 PUTS 0.92 SHORT
BMO M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 61.4 LONG
MO M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 26.36 LONG
       
ERTS M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 22.5 SHORT
>>> ERTS JULY 23 PUTS 1.19 SHORT
HMY M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 12.87 SHORT
>>> HMY JULY 13 PUTS 0.84 SHORT
HOT M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 55.35 SHORT
>>> HOT JULY 57.5 PUTS 4.6 SHORT
NFX M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 66.63 SHORT
>>> NFX JULY 70 PUTS 4.8 SHORT
VVUS M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 7.81 SHORT
>>> VVUS JULY 8 PUTS 0.63 SHORT
CYH M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 25.3 SHORT
>>> CYH JULY 26 PUTS 2.22 SHORT
CYTX M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 4.84 SHORT
>>> CYTX JULY 5 PUTS 0.25 SHORT
EPV M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 6/11 46.52 LONG
>>> EPV JULY 45 CALLS 4.3 LONG
       
VIX M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 LT 19.17 LONG
>>> VIX JULY 18 calls 2.47 LONG
FSLR M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 LT 124.61 SHORT
>>> FSLR JULY 125 PUTS 5.85 SHORT
ITMN M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 LT 35.5 SHORT
>>> ITMN JULY 36 PUTS 1.9 SHORT
OSK M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 LT 28.07 SHORT
>>> OSK JULY 30 PUTS 2.45 SHORT
USSIF M4 ACCUM 14 ORIG 2 LT 0.53 SHORT
>>> NO OPTIONS TRADED    
       
TYO M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 39.05 SHORT
>>> TYO  JULY 40 PUTS 1.3 SHORT
BMO M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 61.4 LONG
MO M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 26.36 LONG
IEF M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 96.77 LONG
>>> IEF JULY 95 CALLS 2 LONG
       
BBL M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 6/11 75.63 SHORT
>>> BBL JULY 75 PUTS 2.7 SHORT
SSEC M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 6/11 2751.626 SHORT
CA M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 6/11 22.465 SHORT
>>> CA JULY 22 PUTS 0.45 SHORT
SLX M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 6/11 67.2 SHORT
>>> SLX JULY 69 PUTS 4 SHORT
TYO M4 ACCUM 21 ORIGINAL2 6/11 39.05 SHORT
>>> TYO  JULY 40 PUTS 1.3 SHORT
       
OSK M4 ACCUM 21 ORIG 2 LT 28.07 SHORT
>>> OSK JULY 30 PUTS 2.45 SHORT
USSIF.PK M4 ACCUM 21 ORIG 2 LT 0.53 SHORT
       
TYX M5 3 TRADE 6/11 2 4.333 SHORT
>>> DOESN'T TRADE OPTIONS    
       
EPI M5 3 TRADE 6/11 3 23.6 SHORT
>>> EPI JULY 25 PUTS 2.3 SHORT
FCX M5 3 TRADE 6/11 3 50.44 SHORT
>>> FCX  JULY 52.5 PUTS 3.05 SHORT
       
ADBE M4 ASP TRADER 6/11 MAYBE 30.79 SHORT
>>> ADBE JULY 31 PUTS 0.87 SHORT
Click to enlarge

If the VIX is giving a buy signal and TBond yields are giving shortsell signals and the Inverse ETF EPV (Short Europe) is giving a buy signal: how can stocks continue to go up?

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More information on the CGTS systems can be found at:
home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm
 
MICHAEL J CLARK
Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

cgts@mindspring.com